32
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
Figure 5. 4. Evolution of the projected density (2022-2052)
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR) 5.4. Age-sex structure of the population Figure 5.5 below shows the age pyramids of Rwanda by 2052 according to the three projection scenarios. When these are compared to the 2022 pyramid, the comparison reveals that:
In 2052, the age pyramid of Rwanda is expected to be quite different from the current one irrespective of the projection scenario. The major change is expected to be the decrease in the share of children (0-14) in the total population and the increase in the share of the population aged 15-59. This means that the population is expected to be less younger in the future.
The 2052 age-pyramid varies according to the projection scenario. The age pyramid from the high scenario in 2052 is expected to be similar to the one of countries with high fertility but with a greater share of the population aged 15-59. According to the medium scenario, children aged 0-4 and 5-9 is expected to continue to have the highest population share but with smaller differences as compared to the older age groups. The low scenario gives a pyramid that no longer has the shape of countries with recent high levels of fertility and past adult mortality; children aged 0-4 would no longer have the highest share among all age groups, a consequence of substantial fertility decline.
The expected decline in fertility and mortality would create a bulge in the working-age population; a demographic window to be seized by investing in the youthful population, and the top of the pyramid is expected to gradually expand over time with a higher representation of elderly in the population. Details of the expected changes in the age-sex structure of the population over the projection period are presented in Table 5.3. 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 Projection year High scenario Medium scenario Low scenario
33
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Figure 5. 5. Comparison of the 2022 and 2052 age pyramids of the Rwandan total population by projection scenario
Age-group pyramid (%) of the total population in 2052 – High scenario
Age-group pyramid (%) of the total population in 2052 – Medium scenario
15 10 5 0 5 10 15 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+ Female Male 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+ Female Male 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+ Female Male
34
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Age-group pyramid (%) of the total population in 2052 – Low scenario
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR) Table 5. 3. Age-sex of the projected population by projection scenario, 2052 Age group
High Scenario
Medium Scenario
Low Scenario
Both sexes
Male
Female
Both sexes
Male
Female
Both sexes
Male
Female
0-4
2,536,364
1,287,199
1,249,165
2,306,493
1,171,403
1,135,090
2,073,262
1,053,720
1,019,542
5-9
2,462,051
1,248,644
1,213,408
2,296,045
1,165,405
1,130,640
2,126,204
1,080,070
1,046,134
10-14
2,376,378
1,204,526
1,171,852
2,260,663
1,146,760
1,113,903
2,141,144
1,086,950
1,054,194
15-19
2,235,432
1,132,120
1,103,312
2,165,166
1,097,401
1,067,764
2,089,827
1,059,976
1,029,851
20-24
2,050,883
1,037,342
1,013,541
2,017,096
1,021,124
995,972
1,981,449
1,003,896
977,553
25-29
1,848,069
933,514
914,556
1,842,442
931,412
911,030
1,836,249
929,030
907,219
30-34
1,666,488
831,026
835,462
1,674,712
835,663
839,050
1,682,562
840,153
842,409
35-39
1,653,413
823,332
830,082
1,663,353
828,722
834,631
1,672,772
833,915
838,857
40-44
1,500,417
745,930
754,488
1,511,995
752,082
759,912
1,523,007
758,013
764,994
45-49
1,442,578
711,901
730,677
1,457,364
719,721
737,644
1,471,624
727,321
744,303
50-54
1,101,863
531,794
570,070
1,117,308
539,914
577,395
1,132,440
547,897
584,543
55-59
914,509
441,529
472,980
932,461
451,089
481,372
950,350
460,634
489,716
60-64
816,862
388,160
428,702
839,467
400,010
439,458
862,452
412,070
450,382
65-69
681,773
316,648
365,124
708,431
330,094
378,337
736,072
344,064
392,008
70-74
487,912
215,346
272,566
514,758
227,850
286,908
543,178
241,134
302,044
75-79
248,693
98,788
149,906
268,137
106,706
161,431
289,245
115,335
173,910
80+
189,037
67,753
121,284
214,529
78,124
136,405
244,138
90,405
153,733
Total
24,212,725
12,015,552
12,197,173
23,790,420
11,803,478
11,986,942
23,355,976
11,584,584
11,771,392
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
To better understand the evolution of the age-sex
structure of the population over the projection
period, expected changes in selected indicators that
capture the dynamics of the age-sex structure are
analysed: percentage of females; sex ratio;
percentage of the population in the age groups 0-4,
5-15, 16-64 and 65+; and the age dependency ratio.
The projections are presented in Table 5.4 for the
high scenario, Table 5.5 for medium cenario, and
Table 5.6 for low scenario.
The projections in the tables confirm that:
The sex structure of the population is expected to remain mostly unaltered across the projection period. The share of females in the population is expected to be around 51% throughout the projection horizon according to the three scenarios;
In contrast to the sex structure, the age structure of the population is expected to vary overtime and across the projection scenarios. The population is expected to be less young in 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+ Female Male
35
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 the future and this trend is expected to be more marked for the low scenario followed by the medium and the high scenario. For instance, the median age is expected to increase from 21 years in 2022 to 26, 27 and 28 years by 2052, according to the high, medium and low scenarios respectively. Similarly, the percentage of population under 15 years is bound to decrease from 37.4% in 2022 to 30.5% in 2052 (high scenario), 28.8% (medium scenario) and 27.1% (low scenario). On the other hand, the share of the population aged 16-64 is expected to increase from 56.1% in 2022 to 61.0% in 2052 (high scenario), 62.1% (medium scenario) and 63.3% (low scenario); and
Based on the projections presented in Tables
5.4-5.6, the percentage of the elderly (60 years
and above) is bound to increase gradually from
6.5% in 2022 up to 10% , 10.7% and 11.5% in the
next 30 years depending on the high, medium,
and low projections scenarios. Those aged 65
years and above are expected to increase from
4.2% in 2022 to as high as 6.6% , 7.2% and 7.8%
in 2052 depending on the high, medium, and low
projections scenarios. This suggests that
although ageing in Rwanda is not as rapid as
elsewhere in the developed societies, the
absolute number of people aged 65 and above
is bound to continue increasing in the future.
This situation is expected to have implications
for social support, health care and living
arrangements but also crucial for retirement
planning.
Table 5. 4. Projection of the age-sex structure of the Rwandan population, 2022-2052 - High scenario
Indicators
of age-sex
Projection Year
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
2052
Total population
13,206,731
13,499,656
13,800,155
14,108,214
14,423,666
14,746,250
16,457,107
18,308,202
20,250,317
22,227,792
24,212,725
Percent female
51.5
51.4
51.3
51.3
51.2
51.2
50.9
50.7
50.6
50.5
50.4
Sex ratio
94.3
94.6
94.8
95.0
95.2
95.4
96.4
97.1
97.7
98.2
98.5
Median age
21
21
21
21
22
22
23
24
25
25
26
Percent 0-4
12.9
12.76
12.68
12.65
12.67
12.73
12.59
12.29
11.78
11.1
10.48
Percent 5-14
24.52
24.22
23.93
23.63
23.31
22.92
21.61
21.45
21.25
20.78
19.98
Percent 15-64
20.26
20.47
20.6
20.65
20.64
20.56
19.49
18.28
17.37
17.48
17.6
Percent 16-64
56.1
56.5
56.9
57.2
57.5
57.8
59.3
59.9
60.3
60.6
61.0
Percent 60+
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.5
6.8
7.8
9.0
10.0
Percent 65+
4.17
4.2
4.26
4.33
4.39
4.42
4.39
4.5
4.72
5.63
6.64
Dependency ratio
0.71
0.7
0.69
0.68
0.68
0.67
0.63
0.62
0.61
0.6
0.59
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
Table 5. 5. Projection of the age-sex structure of the Rwandan population, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario Indicators of age-sex Projection Year 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 Total population 13,206,731 13,499,134 13,798,561 14,104,965 14,418,145 14,737,803 16,423,064 18,226,565 20,090,630 21,956,640 23,790,420 Percent female 51.46 51.40 51.34 51.28 51.22 51.17 50.93 50.74 50.59 50.47 50.39 Sex ratio 94.31 94.56 94.79 95.01 95.22 95.43 96.33 97.07 97.67 98.13 98.47 Median age 21 21 21 21 22 22 23 24 25 26 27 Percent 0-4 12.9 12.75 12.66 12.61 12.61 12.65 12.37 11.93 11.28 10.47 9.7 Percent 5-14 24.52 24.22 23.93 23.64 23.32 22.94 21.59 21.27 20.86 20.17 19.15 Percent 15-64 58.41 58.82 59.14 59.41 59.68 59.98 61.61 62.20 62.95 63.40 63.98 Percent 16-64 56.06 56.55 56.94 57.25 57.53 57.82 59.53 60.35 61.03 61.50 62.12 Percent 60+ 6.51 6.50 6.48 6.45 6.43 6.43 6.58 6.90 8.06 9.43 10.70 Percent 65+ 4.17 4.2 4.27 4.34 4.39 4.43 4.44 4.59 4.91 5.96 7.17 Dependency ratio 0.71 0.7 0.69 0.68 0.68 0.67 0.62 0.61 0.59 0.58 0.56 Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)