NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STATISTICS OF RWAND,
POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS
Rwanda, 2022
Thematic Report
POPULATION PROJECTIONS
“Be counted because you count - Ibaruze kuko uri uw’agaciro”
Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning
National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022
Thematic Report
POPULATION PROJECTIONS
July, 2023
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A U G U S T 2 0 2 2 R W A N D A
P O P U L A T I O N A N D
H O U S I N G
C E N S U S BE COUNTED BECAUSE YOU COUNT
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The Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (RPHC 2022) was implemented by the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR). Fieldwork was conducted from 16th to 30th August, 2022.
Additional information about the 2022 RPHC may be obtained from the NISR: P.O. Box 6139, Kigali, Rwanda; Telephone: (+250) 788 383 103/Toll free:4321 E-mail: [email protected]; Website: www.statistics.gov.rw.
Recommended citation: National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), The Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, Thematic Report: Population Projections, July 2023
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................................................................................ III LIST OF ANNEX TABLES ............................................................................................................................................................................... V LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................................................................................................... VII LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................................................................................................... IX FOREWORD .................................................................................................................................................................................................... XI ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................................................................................ XIII EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................................................... XV CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW OF THE FIFTH RWANDA POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS ........................................................... 1 1.1. Context and justification ................................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2. Legal and institutional frameworks .............................................................................................................................. 1 1.3. Objectives of the Census ................................................................................................................................................. 1 1.4. Census phases and Methodology .................................................................................................................................. 2 CHAPTER 2: JUSTIFICATION AND OBJECTIVES OF THE POPULATION PROJECTIONS ............................................................... 7 2.1. Context ................................................................................................................................................................................. 7 2.2. Justification for Population Projections ...................................................................................................................... 7 2.3. Objectives of the population projections ................................................................................................................... 9 2.4. Definitions of concepts and key indicators ............................................................................................................... 9 CHAPTER 3: OVERVIEW OF THE NATIONAL DEMOGRAPHIC CONTEXT ......................................................................................... 13 3.1. Source of data .................................................................................................................................................................. 13 3.2. Quality of data ................................................................................................................................................................. 13 3.3. Size and age-sex structure of the population .......................................................................................................... 13 3.4. Population dynamics indicators .................................................................................................................................. 14 CHAPTER 4: PROJECTION PARAMETERS, ASSUMPTIONS AND SCENARIOS ............................................................................. 19 4.1. Projection parameters ................................................................................................................................................... 19 4.2. Projection assumptions ................................................................................................................................................. 23 4.3. Projection scenarios ...................................................................................................................................................... 24 4.4. Projection Methods ......................................................................................................................................................... 25 CHAPTER 5: PROJECTIONS OF THE TOTAL POPULATION ................................................................................................................ 27 5.1. Population size ................................................................................................................................................................ 27 5.2. Population growth ......................................................................................................................................................... 29 5.3. Population density ......................................................................................................................................................... 30 5.4. Age-sex structure of the population ........................................................................................................................... 32 5.5. Fertility indicators .......................................................................................................................................................... 36 5.6. Mortality indicators ....................................................................................................................................................... 39 CHAPTER 6: PROJECTIONS OF THE URBAN POPULATION .............................................................................................................. 41
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 6.1. An overview of the current official policy on urbanization ................................................................................... 41 6.2. Size of the urban population ....................................................................................................................................... 43 6.3. Age-sex structure of the urban population ............................................................................................................. 44 6.4. Density of the urban population ................................................................................................................................. 47 CHAPTER 7: PROJECTIONS OF THE RURAL POPULATION ............................................................................................................... 49 7.1. Size of the projected rural population ...................................................................................................................... 49 7.2. Age-sex structure of the projected rural population ............................................................................................ 50 7.3. Density of the projected rural population ............................................................................................................... 54 CHAPTER 8: PROJECTIONS OF SPECIFIC INTERVENTIONS TARGET GROUPS ........................................................................... 55 8.1. School-age population ................................................................................................................................................... 55 8.2. Working-age population ................................................................................................................................................ 57 8.3. Elderly population .......................................................................................................................................................... 59 8.4. Other specific intervention target groups ................................................................................................................. 61 CHAPTER 9: PROJECTIONS OF THE PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS ......................................................... 63 9.1. Evolution of the number and mean size of private households ......................................................................... 63 9.2. Newly created private households ............................................................................................................................ 65 CHAPTER 10: SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS ..................................................................... 67 10.1. Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................ 67 10.2. Recommendations ......................................................................................................................................................... 68 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 71 ANNEXES ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 73 Annex A: Census questionnaires ................................................................................................................................................. 73 Annex B: Supplementary tables ................................................................................................................................................... 87 Annex C: Persons and institutions that contributed to the fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 160
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 LIST OF TABLES Table 3. 1. Trends in fertility from past censuses and nation-wide household surveys ....................................................................... 15 Table 3. 2. Trends in mortality indicators from past censuses and nation-wide household surveys ................................................ 17
Table 4. 1. Age-sex structure of the total, urban and rural population at mid-year (1st July) 2022 ................................................... 21 Table 4. 2. Age-Specific Fertility Rates and contribution to total fertility, 2022 ...................................................................................... 21 Table 4. 3. Trends in life expectancy at birth and annual growth rates, 1978-2022 ................................................................................ 22 Table 4. 4. United Nations model of life expectancy improvement during a five-year period ............................................................ 23
Table 5. 1. Projected population size by projection scenario, 2022-2052 (Mid-year Population) ....................................................... 27 Table 5. 2. Projected population density by projection scenario, 2022-2052 ........................................................................................... 31 Table 5. 3. Age-sex of the projected population by projection scenario, 2052 ....................................................................................... 34 Table 5. 4. Projection of the age-sex structure of the Rwandan population, 2022-2052 - High scenario ......................................... 35 Table 5. 5. Projection of the age-sex structure of the Rwandan population, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario ................................... 35 Table 5. 6. Projection of the age-sex structure of the Rwandan population, 2022-2052 - Low scenario .......................................... 36 Table 5. 7. Projection of key fertility indicators by projection scenario, 2022-2052 ............................................................................... 37 Table 5. 8. Projection of other key fertility indicators by projection scenario, 2022-2052 ................................................................... 38 Table 5. 9. Projection of key mortality indicators by projection scenario, 2022-2052 ........................................................................... 39 Table 6. 1. Projection of the urban population by projection scenario, 2022-2052 ................................................................................ 42 Table 6. 2. Evolution of the size of the urban vs rural population by projection scenario, 2022-2052 .............................................. 43 Table 6. 3. Evolution of the age-sex structure of the urban population by projection scenario, 2022-2052 .................................. 46 Table 6. 4. Projection of the density of the urban population by projection scenario, 2022-2052 ..................................................... 47 Table 7. 1. Projection of the rural population by projection scenario, 2022-2052 ................................................................................. 50 Table 7. 2. The age-sex structure of the projected rural population by projection scenario, 2022-2052 .......................................... 53 Table 7. 3. Density of the projected rural population by projection scenario, 2022-2052 .................................................................... 54 Table 8. 1. Evolution of the school-age population by level of education and area of residence, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario
55 Table 8. 2. Evolution of the school-age population by level of education (Urban), 2022-2052 - Medium scenario ....................... 56 Table 8. 3. Evolution of the school-age population by level of education (Rural), 2022-2052 - Medium scenario ......................... 57 Table 8. 4. Evolution of the working-age population by area of residence, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario ..................................... 58 Table 8. 5. . Evolution of the size of the elderly (60 years and above) by sex and place of residence, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario 59 Table 8. 6. Evolution of the size of the elderly (65 years and above) by sex and place of residence, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario 60 Table 8. 7. Evolution of the size of selected population age groups targeted by health interventions by place of residence, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario ............................................................................................................................................................................. 62 Table 8. 8. Evolution of the size of selected population age groups of children and youth by place of residence, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 62 Table 8. 9. Evolution of the size of legal categories by place of residence, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario ..................................... 62 Table 9. 1. Evolution of the number and size of private households and newly created private households by area of residence, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario ......................................................................................................................................................... 63
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 LIST OF ANNEX TABLES Annex Table 1. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - High projection scenario .......................................... 87 Annex Table 2. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - High projection scenario (cont’d) ......................... 88 Annex Table 3. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - High projection scenario (cont’d) ......................... 89 Annex Table 4. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - High projection scenario (cont’d) ......................... 90 Annex Table 5. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - High projection scenario (cont’d) .......................... 91 Annex Table 6. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - High projection scenario (cont’d) .......................... 92 Annex Table 7. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - High projection scenario (cont’d) .......................... 93 Annex Table 8. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - High projection scenario (cont’d) .......................... 94 Annex Table 9. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - High projection scenario (cont’d) .......................... 95 Annex Table 10. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - High projection scenario (cont’d) ....................... 96 Annex Table 11. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - High projection scenario (cont’d) ......................... 97 Annex Table 12. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - High projection scenario (cont’d) ....................... 98 Annex Table 13. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - Medium projection scenario ................................. 99 Annex Table 14. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - Medium projection scenario (cont’d) ............... 100 Annex Table 15. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - Medium projection scenario (cont’d) ................ 101 Annex Table 16. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - Medium projection scenario (cont’d) ................ 102 Annex Table 17. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - Medium projection scenario (cont’d) ................ 103 Annex Table 18. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - Medium projection scenario (cont’d) ................ 104 Annex Table 19. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - Medium projection scenario (cont’d) ................ 105 Annex Table 20. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - Medium projection scenario (cont’d) .............. 106 Annex Table 21. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - Medium projection scenario (cont’d) ................ 107 Annex Table 22. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - Medium projection scenario (cont’d) ............... 108 Annex Table 23. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - Medium projection scenario (cont’d) ................ 109 Annex Table 24. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - Medium projection scenario (cont’d) ............... 110 Annex Table 25. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - Low projection scenario ....................................... 111 Annex Table 26. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - Low projection scenario ...................................... 112 Annex Table 27. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - Low projection scenario ....................................... 113 Annex Table 28. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - Low projection scenario ...................................... 114 Annex Table 29. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - Low projection scenario ...................................... 115 Annex Table 30. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - Low projection scenario ...................................... 116 Annex Table 31. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - Low projection scenario ........................................ 117 Annex Table 32. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - Low projection scenario ....................................... 118 Annex Table 33. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - Low projection scenario ...................................... 119 Annex Table 34. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - Low projection scenario ...................................... 120 Annex Table 35. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - Low projection scenario ...................................... 121 Annex Table 36. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - Low projection scenario ...................................... 122 Annex Table 37. Projections of the total population, 2023-2052 - High projection scenario ............................................................. 123 Annex Table 38. Projections of the total population, 2023-2052 - High projection scenario ............................................................. 124 Annex Table 39. Projections of the total population, 2023-2052 - High projection scenario ............................................................. 125 Annex Table 40. Projections of the total population, 2023-2052 - Medium projection scenario ...................................................... 126 Annex Table 41. Projections of the total population, 2023-2052 - Medium projection scenario ....................................................... 127 Annex Table 42. Projections of the total population, 2023-2052 - Medium projection scenario ...................................................... 128 Annex Table 43. Projections of the total population, 2023-2052 - Low projection scenario .............................................................. 129 Annex Table 44. Projections of the total population, 2023-2052 - Low projection scenario .............................................................. 130 Annex Table 45. Projections of the total population, 2023-2052 - Low projection scenario .............................................................. 131 Annex Table 46. Projections of the urban population, 2023-2052 - High projection scenario .......................................................... 132 Annex Table 47. Projections of the urban population, 2023-2052 - High projection scenario ........................................................... 133 Annex Table 48. Projections of the urban population, 2023-2052 - High projection scenario .......................................................... 134 Annex Table 49. Projections of the urban population, 2023-2052 - Medium projection scenario .................................................... 135 Annex Table 50. Projections of the urban population, 2023-2052 - Medium projection scenario .................................................... 136 Annex Table 51. Projections of the urban population, 2023-2052 - Medium projection scenario .................................................... 137 Annex Table 52. Projections of the urban population, 2023-2052 - Low projection scenario ............................................................ 138 Annex Table 53. Projections of the urban population, 2023-2052 - Low projection scenario ............................................................ 139