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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Annex Table 54. Projections of the urban population, 2023-2052 - Low projection scenario ............................................................ 140 Annex Table 55. Projections of the rural population, 2023-2052 - High projection scenario ............................................................. 141 Annex Table 56. Projections of the rural population, 2023-2052 - High projection scenario ............................................................ 142 Annex Table 57. Projections of the rural population, 2023-2052 - High projection scenario ............................................................. 143 Annex Table 58. Projections of the rural population, 2023-2052 - Medium projection scenario ...................................................... 144 Annex Table 59. Projections of the rural population, 2023-2052 - Medium projection scenario ...................................................... 145 Annex Table 60. Projections of the rural population, 2023-2052 - Medium projection scenario ...................................................... 146 Annex Table 61. Projections of the rural population, 2023-2052 - Low projection scenario .............................................................. 147 Annex Table 62. Projections of the rural population, 2023-2052 - Low projection scenario .............................................................. 148 Annex Table 63. Projections of the rural population, 2023-2052 - Low projection scenario .............................................................. 149 Annex Table 64. Projections of the school-age population, 2022-2052 - Medium projection scenario .......................................... 150 Annex Table 65. Projections of the working-age population, 2022-2052 - Medium projection scenario ........................................ 151 Annex Table 66. Projections of the elderly (60 years and above), 2022-2052 - Medium projection scenario ............................... 152 Annex Table 67. Projections of the elderly (65 years and above), 2022-2052 - Medium projection scenario ................................ 153 Annex Table 68. Projections of selected population age-groups target of health interventions by area of residence, 2022- 2052 - Medium scenario ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 154 Annex Table 69. Projections of selected population age-groups target of children and youth interventions, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 155 Annex Table 70. Projections of relevant legal majority age-groups by area of residence, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario ......... 156 Annex Table 71. Projections of private households and newly created households, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario ................... 157 Annex Table 72. Projections of urban private households and newly created households, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario ...... 158 Annex Table 73. Projections of rural private households and newly created households, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario ........ 159
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 3. 1. Age pyramid of the resident population of Rwanda, 2022 ...................................................................................................... 14
Figure 3. 2. Evolution of the TFR between 1978-2022 ..................................................................................................................................... 15
Figure 3. 3. Trend in contraceptive prevalence ............................................................................................................................................... 16
Figure 3. 4. Trend in childhood mortality rates ............................................................................................................................................... 16
Figure 3. 5. Trend in life expectancy at birth (1978-2022) .............................................................................................................................. 17
Figure 4. 1. Population age structure Rwanda, at mid-year (1st July) 2022 ............................................................................................... 19 Figure 4. 2. Population age structure Urban at mid-year (1st July) 2022 ................................................................................................... 20 Figure 4. 3. Population age structure Rural at mid-year (1st July) 2022 .................................................................................................... 20
Figure 5. 1. Projected population size by projection scenario, 2022-2052 ................................................................................................ 28 Figure 5. 2. Projected annual population growth rates by projection scenario, 2022-2052 ................................................................. 29 Figure 5. 3. Projected doubling time of the population by projection scenario, 2022-2052 ................................................................ 30 Figure 5. 4. Evolution of the projected density (2022-2052) ......................................................................................................................... 32 Figure 5. 5. Comparison of the 2022 and 2052 age pyramids of the Rwandan total population by projection scenario .............. 33 Figure 5. 6. Projection of the number of annual births by projection scenario, 2022-2052 .................................................................. 38
Figure 6. 1. Evolution of urbanization rate (2022-2052) ................................................................................................................................. 41 Figure 6. 2. Urban population growth (2022-2052) .......................................................................................................................................... 43 Figure 6. 3. Comparison of the 2022 and 2052 age pyramids of the Rwandan urban population by projection scenario ............ 44
Figure 7. 1. Projected rural population (2022-2052) ........................................................................................................................................ 49 Figure 7. 2. Comparison of the 2022 and 2052 age pyramids of the rural population by projection scenario ................................. 51
Figure 8. 1. Evolution of the age dependency ratio by place of residence, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario ...................................... 59
Figure 9. 1. Evolution of private households by place of residence, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario .................................................. 65 Figure 9. 2. Evolution of newly created private households by place of residence, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario ...................... 66
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census
Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
ASFRs
Age-specific fertility rates
ASDR
Age-specific death rate
AU
African Union
CAPI
Computer-Assisted Personal Interviews
CBR
Crude birth rate
CDR
Crude death rate
CPR
Contraceptive prevalence rate
DHS
Demographic and Health Survey
EAs
Enumeration areas
EDPRS
Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy
EICV
Integrated Household Living Conditions Survey
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
GFR
General fertility rate
GIS
Geographic Information System
GoR
Government of Rwanda
HHs
Households
ICT
Information and Communications Technology
IMR
Infant mortality rate
LEB
Life expectancy at birth
MoH
Ministry of Health
NISR
National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda
NRR
Net reproduction rate
NST National Strategy for Transformation
ONS
Office for National Statistics UK
PES
Post-Enumeration Survey
RDHS
Rwandan Demographic and Health Survey
REMA
Rwanda Environment Management Authority
RPHC5
The Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census
RWF
Rwandan Franc
SDGs
Sustainable Development Goals
TFR
Total fertility rate
U5MR
Under-five mortality rate
UK
United Kingdom
UN
United Nations
VUP
Vision 2020 Umurenge Programme
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 FOREWORD
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Population projections are widely used virtually in all government and private sectors given that they are inevitable for informed decisions by policy makers at all levels especially during the intercensal period. This is particularly so for the case of Rwanda which is densely populated country with a high population growth rate.
Over the last two decades, the country has experienced rapid demographic and social changes. The overall objective of this report is to present reliable information on the various components of the projected population between 2022 and 2052 to decision-makers, planners and development partners and inform the Rwanda’s vision 2050.
The standard cohort component method was applied in generating the Rwanda population projections based on the 2022 Fifth Population and Housing Census data. The projections were generated based on three scenarios (high, medium and low) formulated using assumptions regarding future course of fertility and mortality, and reflecting on past trends and other existing and future development policies. The medium assumption scenario is regarded as the most likely projection.
The 2022 RPHC recorded a total resident population of 13,246,394 people as of 15th August 2022, with a slightly higher representation of women (51.5%). Both fertility and mortality levels remain relatively high, although the rates have decreased substantially over the past two decades.
Indeed, under the current fertility conditions, a Rwandan woman would have 3.6 children on average at the end of her reproductive life when compared to a total fertility rate of 5.9 in 2002 and 4.0 in 2012. The level of mortality has declined considerably. In particular, infant mortality rate dropped considerably from 118 per 1000 live births in 1991 to 49 per 1000 in 2012, then to 29 per 1000 in 2022.
The results from the population projections
demonstrate evidence that in the next 30 years, the
Rwanda population is expected to be considerably
different in terms of size, structure and composition
than it is currently. At current level of the population
growth (2.3%), the Rwanda population would double
in 30 years.
Evolution of fertility and mortality
Regardless of the projection scenarios, fertility rates
will decrease in the next 30 years. The current decline
in fertility is assumed to continue over time with the
total fertility rate decreasing from 3.6 children per
woman to 2.9 (high scenario), 2.6 (medium scenario)
and 2.3 (low scenario). The annual number of births is
projected to increase from 367,312 in 2022 to 465,194
in 2052 according to the medium scenario. Mortality
will also decrease, irrespective of the projection
scenarios and the life expectancy is most likely to
continue increasing with a continuous effort to
improve the wellbeing of the population.
According to the medium scenario, life expectancy at
birth is likely to increase from 69.7 years to 78.0 years.
Size and density of future population
The Rwanda population is projected to increase from
13.2 million in 2022 to 24.2 million (high scenario), to
23.8 million (medium scenario), and to or 23.4 million
(low scenario) by 2052.
The absolute difference between the assumption
scenarios is trivial, which suggests that the future size
of Rwandan population would be approximately 80%
more than the current population.
A direct consequence of this evolution is the
unprecedented increase in the population density, as
high as 903 inhabitants per square kilometer
according to the medium scenario in 2052.
The population age-structure depicted by the population pyramid of Rwanda in 2052 will be quite different from the one in 2022. The population will be less younger with the median age increasing from 21 years in 2022 to 27 in 2052. The major change will be a decrease in the share of children aged 0-14 years in the total population, and an increase in the population aged 15 years and above. This reflects the demographic transition from high birth and death rates to lower ones and a demographic window for the country. This will yield a demographic dividend which is an economic benefit that the country would earn from an investment in the youthful population.
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Evolution of the urban and rural population
The urban population is expected to increase from
27.9% in 2022 to 70% in 2052 as stated in the vision
2050. This rapid growth translates into an expected
urban population that is multiplied by a factor of four
in the next 30 years: 3.7 million in 2022 to 16.6 million,
according to the medium scenario.
However, the rural population is expected to increase
from 9.5 million in 2022 to: 9.6 million in 2026, then
start decreasing up to 7.1 million in 2052 according to
the medium scenario.
Both the urban and rural populations will be less
younger with a median age increasing from 22 years
to 27 years for the urban and from 20 years to 28 years
for the rural between 2022 and 2052.
Evolution of some specific interventions target
groups
The sizes of specific population sub-groups such as
the
school-age
population,
the
working-age
population, the health interventions group, the
elderly, the children, youth, and the legal age-groups
categories are expected to increase substantially
over the next 30 years, especially in urban areas.
For instance, at the national level, the school-age
population is expected to increase from 5.2 million of
people aged 3-18 to 7.2 million between 2022 and
2052, equivalent to an increase of 39% with marked
differences by place of residence.
The proportion of the working-age population aged 16-64 years in Rwanda is expected to increase from 56% in 2022 to 61% in 2052. This increase will be even higher in urban area where the working-age population is expected to increase fivefold in thirty years. In contrast, a decrease of the working-age population is expected in rural areas mainly due to urban population growth and rural-urban migration.
The size of the elderly aged 60 and above is expected
to have tripled between 2022 and 2052. The increase
is expected to be even more substantial in urban
areas where the number of the elderly in 2052 is
expected to be 9 times greater than in 2022; whereas
in the rural areas, the increase is expected to be
twofold.
The increase also varies by sex, regardless of the
place of residence. The increase in relative terms is
expected to be more accentuated among males than
females at national and rural levels than in urban
areas.
For instance, at the national level, the increase in the
male elderly population between 2022 and 2052 is
expected to be 221% as compared to 178% among
females.
Evolution of the private households The number of private households increased from 2.4 million to 3.3 million between 2012 and 2022 and would increase to 5.3 million by 2032 and 7.9 million by 2052. The number of private households will increase sixfold in urban area whereas in rural areas this increase will be only 83%. The mean size of the households will vary slightly, decreasing from 4.3 members per household to 4.1 in 2032 with little variations between urban and rural areas. The annual number of newly created households will increase continuously over time: from around 98,000 in 2023 up to about 198,000 in 2052.
Policy implications
A significant threat to population and development in
Rwanda is the increasing land pressure. The country
needs to put in place explicit policies to deal with the
unavoidable
and
foreseeable
population
overcrowding aside from the current policies aimed
at slowing down the population growth. The expected
growth of the population would exacerbate pressure
on land, settlements/housing, physical infrastructure
and resources. This would imply revisiting urban
planning, mode of construction, and monitoring
related interventions within the high population
growth context, while paying attention to the future
development of new urban settlements including
roads,
transport
networks,
sewage
disposal,
environmental infrastructure, water and electricity
supply, health and educational facilities and other
essential community facilities.
The size and growth rate of future youth and working-
age population will pose additional challenges in
terms of generating sustainable employment and
livelihood opportunities in both urban and rural
areas of Rwanda.
This calls for essential investments in human capital
development especially investment in education,
health, and economic reforms so that the country has
a healthy, well educated, and highly skilled labor