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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 In accordance with the instructions contained in the census manual, each personnel ensured the operations of daily census activities within their area of supervision. Enumerators were accountable for the work done on a daily basis to their sector supervisors, who monitored the progress using dashboards and field visits facilitated by two motorcycles hired to facilitate the transport of Sector Supervisors in their daily supervisory activities.
As the dashboard was accessible to all supervisors at different levels of supervision, each supervisor was expected to understand what was going on regarding the data collection and then provide explanations for any identified issues.
A team of 60 data monitors was working at NISR headquarters coordinated by 10 field analysts. They were responsible of the follow up on the progress of data collection through the dashboards in all enumeration areas. They interacted with sector supervisors on a daily basis by identifying the enumeration areas with low completion rates, and then suggesting possible solutions including redeployment of those who completed enumeration in EAs lagging behind. They were also reporting any issue that needed special attention of the coordination team.
The dashboards allowed coordination team to continually monitor the progress of census enumeration in all the 24,399 enumeration areas but also ensuring for quality of the census. The use of dashboards allowed the identification of the enumeration areas with risk of not completing the enumeration on time and where additional resources and support were needed (e.g. enumerators, means of transportation to ensure the completeness.
1.4.2.7. Post-enumeration activities The post-enumeration activities include the Post- Enumeration Survey (PES), data processing, release of results, thematic analysis, and dissemination of census results. The use of technology at all stages of the census enabled the rapid and timely publication of the main indicators report, as well as the tabulations and summary results contained in the thematic reports and other census products.
The PES was conducted from 16th to 30th September
2022, just in one month after the main census
enumeration. The aim of the PES was to assess the
census coverage/completeness and quality of the
census data.
A total of 180 enumeration areas were sampled from
all districts of the country. To assess census
coverage, PES and census records were matched, a
task that was carried out using data science
techniques and the Python programming language.
Matching is the process of checking whether records
from two different data sets relate to the same
household and/or person match or not. In this work,
both automatic and clerical matching methods were
used.
The census dataset –stabilisation, data-processing,
and data-editing processes were completed within
two months, after which census data tables for all
thematic reports were generated.
The final results were subjected to an in-depth
analysis across 18 generic themes (one of which is
presented in this report) in accordance with the
analysis plan developed for each theme. Census
monographs for each of the 30 districts will also be
produced.
1.4.2.8. Data quality assessment An independent quality review (available as an internal report to NISR) was conducted in parallel with the thematic analysis. This investigated the work done prior, during, and after the census enumeration to maximise the level of data quality. The assessment confirmed strong planning and quality assurance throughout the enumeration. Assessment of the key demographic and socio-economic variables also confirmed the good quality of the RPHC5 data in terms of representation of the population.
The overall conclusion of the assessment is that the RPHC5 was implemented with strong quality controls and gives an excellent representation of the population of Rwanda with generally good measurement of its structure, both in terms of spread and demographic and socio-economic characteristics. The high quality of the data with respect to coverage and representation is confirmed by the results of the Post-Enumeration Survey, which measured the net coverage of the household population in the RPHC5 to be around 99% nationally
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 with little variation across regions and by age and sex. Gross under-coverage was around 1.8% while gross over-coverage (erroneous inclusions) was around 0.2%.
The conclusion of excellent representation is also
consistent with the plausible growth rate for the
population over the intercensal period implied by the
national results.
Some quality issues were identified on a few
population characteristics. These include age
heaping, particularly for ages with terminal digits 0
and 5. However, summary measures from Whipple’s
index, Myers’ index and the UN joint score indicate
comparatively some improvement and a reduction in
age heaping in the 2022 Census compared to the 2012
Census. There is also some evidence of under-
reporting of infant deaths, and across other ages -
hence the use of indirect methods is recommended
for estimating mortality indicators.
In conclusion, there were no major quality issues identified in the 2022 Rwanda Population and Housing Census, except for some economic activity variables with low-quality reporting. The evaluation of key demographic and socio-economic variables as well as the triangulation of the data with other sources generally confirm the excellent quality of the RPHC5. Thus, the final database of the 2022 Rwanda Population and Housing Census is of high quality.
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census
Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
CHAPTER 2: JUSTIFICATION AND OBJECTIVES OF THE POPULATION
PROJECTIONS
2.1.
Context
Since the 1994 genocide against Tutsi, Rwanda has
made considerable progress in restoring peace and
political stability, human development and social and
economic
transformation.
The
development
landscape has changed considerably since the
adoption of the Vision 2020. The enabling factors for
this social development are wide ranging including:
strong political commitment, peace and stability,
good governance, accountability, promotion of home
grown solutions, effective decentralisation policies
along
with
social
reforms
and
programme
interventions but also evidence based decision
making.
The establishment of new villages in rural areas (Umudugudu) through resettlement programmes, universal health insurance scheme (Mutuelle de santé), decentralization of health facilities at lowest administrative levels and Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS) are examples of successful social and health care interventions in Rwanda (Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, 2013; May and Kamurase, 2009). Despite these achievements, Rwanda’s future has been threatened by a high rate of population growth, which in turn has a negative consequence on physical and natural resources. In fact, Rwanda is one of the countries in Africa with a high population density (PRB, 2022), where excessive population growth puts severe pressure on land, settlements and living conditions (NISR, 2007).
For a long time, the country has tried to integrate population issues into development programmes through various efforts including the redistribution of population and land, and has been successful with direct interventions in reducing the growth rate through effective family planning and health care programmes (Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, 2013; NISR, MoH and ICF International, 2012; Singh et al. 2012; ONAPO, 1990).
For the last two decades, the country has been implementing multidimensional population policies that include several features such as land management, improving health conditions of the population, universal access to health care including reproductive health and family planning services, and interventions aimed at improving the levels of education for both girls and boys. In 2020, the government launched the Vision 2050 programme with the aim to transform Rwanda into an upper- middle income country with a target of reaching GDP per capita of over 4,036 USD by 2035 and 12,476 USD by 2050.
It is in this context where past, current and future
population data become critically important in
allocating resources for planning, implementation,
monitoring and evaluation of all development
programmes. More precisely, in order to support
national, regional and local planning, the country
needs to generate timely and reliable data to monitor
demographic, social and economic changes, assess
the impact of past interventions and integrate
population variables in future interventions and
planing.
2.2.
Justification for Population Projections
The Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census was
conducted from 16th to 30th August 2022, ten years
after the previous one (2012) as recommended by the
United Nations (UN, 2017) in order to provide to the
Rwandan Government, its development partners and
all decentralized structures with reliable and up-to-
date data disaggregated down to the lowest
geographical
level
needed
for
an
accurate
description of the demographic and socio-economic
characteristics of the population.
Population projections are inevitable tools for
decision makers and planners.
Government ministries representing virtually all
sectors, particularly health, education, transport,
environment, social welfare and housing, constantly
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 seek population projections of future demographic parameters for planning purposes in general, but also for resources' allocation in particular.
Population projections provide information not only on the future total population, but also on population disaggregated by age and sex for specific sub-groups of the population such as school-age, working-age, the elderly, females in the reproductive ages as well as the expected number of births and deaths, the number of new households to be created, and other relevant estimates for designing various interventions aimed at improving the living conditions of the future population.
Population projections provide critical information on the future population size as well as age-sex structure based on a set of assumptions about future changes in fertility, mortality and migration. They yield key population indicators needed for future planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of various social, economic and developmental policies and programmes of a country. This is especially the case for the measurement of the progress made by Rwanda in implementing the first National Strategy for Transformation (NST1), progress towards the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the goals of the Programme of Action of the 1994 Cairo International Conference on Population and Development (UNDP, 2008; NISR, 2007).
The progress made in the achievement of these
indicators reflected in recent national level data from
large-scale surveys such as the Demographic and
Health Surveys (DHSs), Integrated Household Living
Conditions Surveys (EICVs) and other data sources
are crucial and should be integrated in building
realistic assumptions regarding future levels of
fertility and mortality (Binagwaho et al., 2013).
The future population size and age-sex structure are
determined by changes in fertility, mortality and
migration. This implies that, in order to determine the
size and structure of the future population,
projections should consider cohorts defined by age
and sex and make realistic assumptions regarding
the future course of fertility, mortality and migration
(O’Neill et al., 2001). It is important to determine the
base year and duration of the projections, analyse
the past trends of fertility, mortality and migration
based on previous censuses and surveys and develop
possible scenarios based on the assumptions
regarding future changes in demographic events
(births, deaths and migration).
Population projections shed light on the interactions of various demographic variables and their impact on the future evolution of some parameters such as the size, composition and distribution of the population, and the related demographic events (births, deaths, marriages and migration). The projected population by age and sex directly feed into development planning; for example, determining the number of nurses to be trained, the number of classrooms to be built, the number and type of public facilities and infrastructure needed for new settlements in urban areas, and so on. For effective advocacy, population projections are indispensable, especially where there is a potential negative impact of a particular developmental phenomenon on population or vice versa. This includes, for instance, policies to harness a demographic dividend, and the need to develop effective policies that foster education and economic opportunities for the growing number of women and young people, or the need to adopt social sector spending to the changing age structure and providing social support and health care for the elderly population.
Commonly, researchers use population projections
with the purpose to answer questions that relate to
future social and economic development. They may
study, for instance, the future growth of the working-
age population and the challenges for generating
sustainable
employment
and
livelihood
opportunities in both urban and rural areas.
However, population change can equally be regarded
as being, to some extent, a dependent rather than
independent variable in the planning process.
As such, population projections would be used to
estimate the likely impact of policy changes and
planning decisions on demographic trends. This
includes, for instance, the estimation of the impact of
improved family planning and health services on
fertility and mortality rates at the national and sub-
national levels.
Population projections become an important input in
programmes not only during target setting, but also
for monitoring and evaluation, especially at impact
level.