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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
They are useful in assessing whether Rwanda is on
track in achieving national and international targets
such as the SDGs to which it has committed itself to
achieving.
Most of programme indicators in monitoring progress
need population figures as denominators.
Population projections are also a critical input in
driving production and consumption within the
private sector. Roping in the private sector in the
utilization of population projections is a crucial entry
point in soliciting for their support in the generation
of accurate and timely data from future censuses.
The 2022 Rwanda population projections were done
for 30 years ahead (2022-2052) in order to inform the
Rwanda Vision 2050 and will be adjusted upon
implementation of the 2032 and 2042 Rwanda
population and Housing Censuses.
The urban population was projected based on the
country’s aspiration to have 70% of the population in
urban areas by 2050 (vision 2050).
2.3. Objectives of the population projections 2.3.1. Overall Objective The overall objective of the population projections is to provide to decision-makers, planners and development partners with reliable information on the various components of the projected Rwanda population between 2022 and 2052. 2.3.2. Specific Objectives More specifically, the objectives of the report are to present and interpret the future trends of:
The size of the total population, its age-sex structure and density;
The size of the urban and rural populations, their age-sex structures and densities;
Fertility and mortality indicators;
The sizes of specific interventions target groups; and
The number and mean size of private households along with the annual number of new households to be created.
2.4. Definitions of concepts and key indicators Age-dependency ratio: defined internationally as the ratio of persons in dependent ages (under 15 and 60+ years) to economically productive ages (15-59 years); in the Rwandan context under 16 and over 64 years as dependent, and 16-64 years as economically productive. Age-sex structure: is the distribution of the population by age and sex.
Age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs): are obtained by
dividing the number of births to women in a
particular age group, in a specific calendar year, to
the mid-year population of women in the same age-
group. The ASFR of a given age group in a given year
measures the average number of children a woman
of that age group would have under the current
fertility conditions of that year and assuming that she
is expected to survive throughout the reproductive
ages.
Average household size: is obtained by dividing the
total population living in private households by the
total number of private households.
Childbearing age: is generally defined for women as
the age interval 15-49 years during which they give
birth. It is also referred to as reproductive ages.
Children: are officially defined in Rwanda as persons aged 0-17.
Crude birth rate (CBR): is defined as the total number of live births per 1,000 inhabitants in a given year. It measures the frequency of births within a population.
Crude death rate (CDR): is defined as the total number of deaths per 1,000 inhabitants in a given year.
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
Doubling time: is the time that a population takes to double its current size calculated based on a given growth rate.
Elderly: is defined by the United Nations as people aged 60 years and above (United Nations, 2007). It is the same age used in the analysis of the 2002 Census. However, in Rwanda the normal retirement age is now 65 years old and the early retirement age is 60 years instead of 55 years.
Fertility: is the number of children born to a woman. It refers to the actual reproductive performance of a woman.
General Fertility Rate (GFR): measures the number of births in a given year divided by the corresponding mid-year population of women in the childbearing years (15-49). It is a refined measure when compared to CBR which includes total population at risk in the denominator.
Private Household: is defined as a household with a single person or a group of people living together voluntarily, having common housekeeping arrangements for supplying basic living needs, such as principal meals; the group may consist of related or unrelated persons.
Infant mortality rate (IMR): is the probability of dying before the first year of life in a specific year, usually expressed in terms of deaths per 1000 live births.
Life expectancy at birth (LEB): is a hypothetical measure that estimates the average number of years that a new-born could expect to live if he/she had to live all his/her life under the current mortality conditions. Life expectancy can also be calculated at any given age as the number of years a person of that age would expect to live under the current mortality conditions.
Mean age at childbearing: is defined as the average age of mothers at the birth of their children if women were subject to the age-specific fertility rates observed throughout their childbearing years in a given year.
Migration: is defined as the movement of people across a specified boundary for the purpose of establishing a new residence.
Mortality: is defined as the number of deaths that occur in a population.
Net migration rate: is defined as the net effect of immigration and emigration in a given population, expressed as either increase or decrease per 1,000 inhabitants in a given year. It is calculated by dividing the difference between the number of in-migrants and the number of out-migrants by the resident mid- year population multiplied by 1,000.
Population census: a total count of members of a population usually every 5 or 10 years. In Rwanda, the census is conducted every 10 years.
Population density: is defined as the number of persons per square kilometre.
Population dynamics: changes in a population over time due to changes in fertility, mortality and migration.
Population projections: are scenarios of what future populations might look like under given assumptions.
Population growth rate: is the rate at which a population grows (increase or decrease) during a given year as a result of natural increase plus net migration; expressed as a percentage of the base population.
School-age population: depends on the education system in a country. In Rwanda, the school-age population is defined as the population aged 3-18 years; classified by pre-school (3-6 years), primary (7- 12 years), and secondary (13-18 years).
Sex ratio: is defined as the number of males per 100 females in a population. It is calculated by simply dividing the total number of males in the population by the total number of women multiplied by 100. Total fertility rate (TFR): it is an hypothetical measure that estimates the average number of children a woman would have at the end of her reproductive age if she were subject to a pre- determined age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) of a
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 given period. It is calculated by summing the ASFRs and multiplying the sum by the width of the age interval.
Working-age population: is generally defined as population aged 15-64, but in the Rwandan context, the definition is the age interval 16-64 years.
Youth: is officially defined as people aged 14-35 years in Rwanda.
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 CHAPTER 3: OVERVIEW OF THE NATIONAL DEMOGRAPHIC CONTEXT 3.1. Source of data Since the last census in 2012, Rwanda has conducted a number of data collection exercises that provide representative information on the levels and trends of key indicators on the population including size, age-sex structure and the driven factors of its dynamics. These include the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) conducted in 2014/2015 and 2019/2020, and the recent population and housing census conducted in 2022. The DHSs highlight the demographic changes Rwanda has experienced in recent years especially with regard to fertility and childhood mortality, while the data from the last census provides information on the size, structure and spatial distribution of the total, urban and rural population but also some key demographic aspects of the Rwanda population. The population projections presented in this report used data from these sources to estimate the size, composition and dynamics of the population in the next thirty years (2022-2052).
3.2. Quality of data Census enumerations are usually not perfect: reported data on the population may be affected by several factors. The total population may be under- or over-reported for whatever reasons. Furthermore, the age and sex structure may be affected by age misreporting, by under- or over- enumeration of people of certain ages, and in some cases by duplications of people of certain ages. Before using the census counts as the base for projection, they must be evaluated for errors and adjusted when necessary (UN, 2017a). Indeed for the RPHC5, an evaluation for both coverage and content errors was undertaken. As detailed in Theme one (1) on Data Quality, an evaluation on coverage errors concluded that the RPHC5 has a high overall coverage and of good quality. However, an evaluation on content errors shows some evidence of very limited age heaping, particularly on terminal digits 0, 5 and on a few even numbers like 2. There were some irregularities in age reporting in 2022, although a comparison of the observed patterns of age-sex reporting in 2022 with the two previous censuses (2002 and 2012) signifies an improvement in the accuracy and quality of age- sex data. In conclusion, heaping on the preferred terminal digits does not potentially create any problem particularly when grouped age structure is used, and the age-sex structure in RPHC5 is sufficiently well- reported to be used for projections. Consequently, there was lack of evidence to warrant any adjustment of neither the population size nor the age-sex structure based on the evaluation of coverage and content errors
3.3.
Size and age-sex structure of the population
The final results of the 5th Population and Housing
Census of Rwanda give a total resident population of
13,246,394 people as of August 15th 2022, “census
night”. The population sex ratio is 94.3 males per 100
females, indicating a higher representation of
females (6,817,068) than males (6,429,326). The
resident population recorded in the 2022 census
added 2,730,421 more people when compared to the
2012 census, yielding an intercensal average annual
growth rate of 2.3%. This rate is greater than that of
1991-2002 (1.2%) but less than that of 2002-2012
(2.6%).
Evidently, Rwanda recorded an unprecedented low
intercensal annual growth rate of 1.2% between 1991
and 2002 due to the 1994 genocide. The reversal of
annual growth rates to 2.6% between 2002 and 2012,
and then 2.3% between 2012 and 2022 clearly
indicates that Rwanda continues to make a gradual
recovery in terms of population lost due to the
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census
Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
genocide but also improvement in population
wellbeing.
The sex ratios show a deficit of males although this
imbalance is declining over the census years (i.e.
from 91 males per 100 females in 2002 to 93 in 2012,
and then 94 in 2022), especially at young ages (Figure
3.1).
A review of the age-sex structure of the population in
2022 highlights the following key findings:
•
An expanded base of the age pyramid,
characteristic of population with recent high
fertility;
•
A tapered top of the pyramid, a pointer to high
adult mortality in the past;
•
A predominantly young population: those
under-20 years represent 49% of the total
population;
•
The proportion of potentially economically
active population (16-64 years) is 56% of the
total population; and
•
The proportion of the elderly (60 years and
above) is 6.5% of the total population.
Figure 3. 1. Age pyramid of the resident population of Rwanda, 2022
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
3.4.
Population dynamics indicators
The three components that drive the dynamics of a population are fertility, mortality and migration. This section
reviews the various indicators within these three components.
3.4.1.
Fertility levels and trends
Of the three components, fertility usually has the
greatest influence on population dynamics. Indeed,
fertility continues to exert considerable impact on
natural increase in the population of Rwanda.
Fertility can be measured using several indicators
such as the Crude Birth Rate (CBR), Total Fertility Rate
(TFR) and Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR). According
to the RPHC5, the TFR is 3.6 children per woman in
2022, slightly more than twice lower than the 8.6
recorded in 1978 by the first PHC.
According to the censuses and surveys conducted in
Rwanda, the total fertility rate (TFR) has increased by
5% from 5.8 children per woman in 2000 to 6.1 in 2005,
before decreasing by 34% to 4.0 children per woman
in 2012, and by a further 10% to 3.6 children per
woman in 2022 (Table 3.1 and Figure 3.2).
15
10
5
0
5
10
15
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
Female
Male