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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 4.1.3. Mortality The projection parameter for mortality is the life expectancy at birth over time.
a) Life expectancy at birth The trend in mortality data shows that the annual change in life expectancy at birth during the period 1978-1991 was 0.45 years for males, 0.68 years for females and 0.56 years for both sexes. For the period 1991-2002, the annual decrease in life expectancy at birth was about 0.23 years for the entire population. However, there were gains in the succeeding intercensal periods such that between 2002 and 2012, the annual increase rate was 1.33 years and 0.52 years between 2012 and 2022 for both sexes as shown in Table 4.3.
Table 4. 3. Trends in life expectancy at birth and annual growth rates, 1978-2022 Year/Period Sex Gap between Male and Female Both sexes Male Female
Life expectancy at birth (e0) in years 1978 46.4 45.1 47.7 2.6 1991 53.7 51.0 56.5 5.5 2002 51.2 48.4 53.8 5.4 2012 64.5 62.6 66.2 3.6 2022 69.6 67.7 71.2 3.5
Annual change in years 1978–1991 +0.56 +0.45 +0.68
1991–2002 -0.23 -0.24 -0.25
2002–2012 +1.33 +1.42 +1.24
2012-2022 +0.51 +0.51 +0.50
Sources: Rwanda 1978, 1991, 2002, 2012 and 2022 PHCs
b)
Operational model for the decline of mortality
The estimation of life expectancy at birth within the
projection period is based on the United Nations
Population Division model schedule of changes in life
expectancy (United Nations, 1982). This schedule
assumes that life expectancy at birth, for both males
and females, increases by 1.2 to 2.0 years over each
five-year period when life expectancy is between
67.5-70.0 and then increases at a slower rate at higher
levels.
Table 4.4 shows the working model used in the United
Nations population projections.
These assumptions are based on the principle that
there are no external shocks such as war, national or
global epidemics or other disasters and major
economic crises. However some adjustments were
made depending on the trajectories of childhood
mortality and some other improvement in socio-
economic conditions as it have been experienced in
the last two decades.
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Table 4. 4. United Nations model of life expectancy improvement during a five-year period Initial life expectancy Rapid Rise Moderate Rise Slow Rise Male Female Male Female Male Female 55.0-57.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 57.5-60.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 60.0-62.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.0 2.0 62.5-65.0 2.3 2.5 2.0 2.5 2.0 2.0 65.0-67.5 2.0 2.5 1.5 2.3 1.5 2.0 67.5-70.0 1.5 2.3 1.2 2.0 1.0 1.5 70.0-72.5 1.2 2.0 1.0 1.5 0.8 1.2 72.5-75.0 1.0 1.5 0.8 1.2 0.5 1.0 75.0-77.5 0.8 1.2 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.8 77.5-80.0 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.5 80.0-82.5 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 82.5-85.0
0.5
0.4
0.3 85.0-87.5
0.5
0.4
0.3 Source: UN. 1982. Model Life Tables for Developing Countries
4.2. Projection assumptions The assumptions for each component of population change are explained in the sub-sections below. 4.2.1. Fertility This sub-section first examines the current situation of Rwanda in terms of policies and programs aimed at controlling fertility and then outlines the assumptions on future trends in fertility.
a) Policies and programmes on fertility in Rwanda
Based on empirical data, fertility change in Rwanda
can be classified into three periods in line with the
three phases of implementation of the national
policies and programmes put in place to mitigate the
rapid growth of the population.
These include:
§
a period of steady decline in fertility (1978-1992)
following a proactive government policy to
reduce fertility by implementing a vigorous
family planning programme using all available
means;
§
a period of increase in fertility (the 1994
genocide aftermath) - the 1994 genocide had a
catastrophic impact on health systems and
households were affected severely by loss of
family members. Fertility declined slightly
during this period but then picked up again
between 2000 and 2005, recovery period.
§
The post-2005 rapid decline in fertility was
attributed to increase in access to community-
based health services, successful public
campaigns promoting responsible parenthood
and, more importantly, increased access to
health facilities, a steady increase in the level of
education of females; and
§
a period of rapid decline in fertility (2005 to
present).
b) Assumptions about future trends in fertility
The following assumptions were made based on an
assessment of past and current trends in fertility:
1.
High fertility assumption: TFR would decrease
from 3.6 children per woman to 2.9 children per
woman between 2022 and 2052, assuming that
the revised target of Vision 2050 would be
reached by the end of the projection period:
ü
TFR = from 3.6 children per woman in 2022
to 2.9 children per woman in 2052.
2.
Medium fertility assumption: TFR would
decrease constantly from 3.6 children per
woman in 2022 to about 2.6 children per woman
in 2052 based on the recent changes in fertility
observed between 2005 and 2022:
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census
Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
ü
TFR = from 3.6 children per woman in 2022
to 2.6 children in 2052.
ü
Low fertility assumption: TFR would
decrease from 3.6 children per woman in
2022 to 2.3 children per woman in 2052. It
is assumed that fertility is expected to
continue to decline to reach its current
level among women with secondary and
university level of educational attainment,
which is about 2.3 children per woman by
the end of the projections period, 2052:
TFR = from 3.6 children per woman in 2022
to 2.3 children in 2052.
4.2.2.
Mortality
a) Policies and programmes related to mortality in
Rwanda
As mentioned above, the current socio-health
context of Rwanda is characterized by: increased
availability of health facilities down to the lowest
administrative level; universal access to health care
through mandatory medical insurance for all; and
significant improvement in family and environmental
hygiene. These factors contributed to the decline in
mortality as clearly illustrated by the increase in life
expectancy at birth – from 51.2 years for both sexes
in 2002 to 64.5 years in 2012, and then to 69.6 years in
2022. It is assumed that these factors are expected to
continue to play a significant role in improving the
health and living conditions of people, along with the
Vision 2050 agenda aimed at transforming Rwanda
into an upper-middle income country.
b) Assumptions regarding future mortality trends
Based on the assessment of past mortality trends
and recent dramatic improvements in human survival
attributed to social and economic development, it is
assumed that life expectancy at birth in Rwanda is
expected to increase up to about 78 years by the end
of the projection period.
Three assumptions were used:
• High mortality assumption: life expectancy at
birth (LEB) would increase from 69.6 years 2022 to
75 years in 2052, according to the low rise of the
UN model of mortality decline (United Nations,
2003):
ü LEB (Male): 67.7 years in 2022 to 73 years in
2052
ü LEB (Female): 71.2 years in 2022 to 77 years in
2052
• Medium mortality assumption: life expectancy at
birth (LEB) would increase steadily from 69.6
years 2022 to 78 years in 2052, according to the
moderate rise of the UN model of mortality
decline (United Nations, 2003):
ü LEB (Male): 67.7 years in 2022 to 76 years in
2052
ü LEB (Female): 71.2 years in 2022 to 80 years in
2052
• Low mortality assumption: life expectancy at birth
(LEB) would increase rapidly from 69.6 years 2022
to 81 years in 2052, according to the fast rise of
the UN model of mortality decline (United
Nations, 2003):
ü LEB (Male): from 67.7 years in 2022 to 79 years
in 2052
ü LEB (Female): from 71.2 years in 2022 to 83
years in 2052.
4.2.3. International Migration As argued in sub-section 3.4.3, the contribution of international migration to the Rwandan population growth would be negligible. Therefore, it was assumed that the net international migration is zero when projecting population at the national level throughout the projection period. ü Assumption: Net international migration is zero. 4.3. Projection scenarios Based on the assumptions regarding fertility and mortality, three possible scenarios were derived to project the Rwandan population from 2022 to 2052. These scenarios are:
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census
Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
•
High scenario – where the TFR would decrease
from 3.6 children per woman in 2022 to 2.9 at the
end of the projection period, while the life
expectancy at birth would increase from 67.7
years in 2022 for males and 71.2 years for
females to 73 years for males and 77 years for
females in 2052.
•
Medium scenario – where the TFR would
decrease from 3.6 children per woman in 2022
•
to 2.6 at the end of the projection period, while
the life expectancy at birth would increase from
67.7 years in 2022 for males and 71.2 years for
females to 76 years for males and 80 years for
females in 2052.
•
Low scenario – where TFR would decrease from
3.6 children per woman in 2022 to 2.3 by the end
of the projection period, while the life
expectancy at birth would increase from 67.7
years in 2022 for males and 71.2 years for
females to 79 years for males and 83 years for
females in 2052.
4.4.
Projection Methods
The data from the above-presented scenarios were
used as inputs in the SPECTRUM software in its
Demproj and Rapid modules (Stover and Kirmeyer,
2005) to generate the total and other indicators of the
population of Rwanda for the next 30 years (2022-
2052).
Different methods are used in projecting population depending on the type of projections: “global projections” or “sectoral projections”. “Global projections” refer to projections of the whole population while “sectoral projections” refer to projections of sub-group populations. For “global projections”, the method used is the so-called cohort-component method which takes into account the components of population change: fertility, mortality and migration.
This method follows a group of people of the same age (cohort) and sex throughout its lifetime, exposing it to assumed age- and sex-specific mortality, fertility and migration rates.
An initial or base year population, disaggregated by
age and sex, is exposed to age-sex-specific chances
of dying as determined by estimated and projected
mortality levels and patterns. Once deaths are
estimated, they are subtracted from the population
figure at each age, yielding survivors in the
subsequent time period.
Fertility rates are projected and applied to the female
population of childbearing age to estimate the
number of births every year. Each cohort of children
born is also followed through time and survivors are
calculated after exposure to appropriate mortality
rates.
Finally, the method takes into account net migrants
by adding them to, or subtracting them from, the
population at each specific age. The whole procedure
is repeated for each year of the projection period,
resulting in the projected population by age and sex
through 2052.