26
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 The logic of this method is explained by the following simple balance equation (1):
Where:
Pop(t1) is the size of the population at time t1 (initial population);
Pop(t2) is the size of the population at time t2;
B(t1, t2) is the number of births between t1 and t2;
D(t1, t2) is the number of deaths between t1 and t2;
Immig(t1, t2) is the number of immigrants between t1 and t2; and
Emig(t1, t2) is the number of emigrants between t1 and t2. In the present case, net international migration is presumed to be zero, hence equation (1) is modified to be:
This equation was used to project the future size of
the population of Rwanda in single years and 5-year
age-groups from 2022 to 2052, by adding the number
of annual births in 2022 to the base year population
(2022) and subtracting the number of annual deaths
at each age in the base year. The number of annual
births is obtained by multiplying the ASFRs of 2022 to
the female population at risk (those aged 15-49
years).
The number of births is further disaggregated by sex,
by applying the sex ratio at birth (105 males per 100
females in this case). The surviving births are then
calculated by applying the probability of surviving at
ages between 0 and 1. The number of annual deaths
is obtained by applying survival ratios calculated
from the 2022 age-specific death rates (ASDRs) to the
corresponding population at each age (age-group).
The number of deaths is then disaggregated by sex.
As for the ASDRs, life expectancy for each sex is
obtained by applying an interpolation using the
observed life expectancy in 2022 and the assumed
projected life expectancies through 2052.
The projections of the urban population are obtained
by applying the corresponding urbanization rate to
the total population for each year. The projected
urbanization rates are obtained by interpolation
using the observed urbanization rate in 2022 and the
assumed urbanization rate of 70% by 2052 as stated
in the vision 2050.
The size of specific intervention target groups at each
projection year is obtained by extracting the
corresponding population from the total population
of the year using the age-criteria that defined each
specific group.
The projections of private households are obtained
through two steps. The first one consists of
calculating the number of private households for the
whole country and for urban areas by dividing the
projected total and urban populations with their
respective mean sizes of household of the country
and in urban areas. The second step consists of
calculating the number of private households in rural
areas by subtracting the number of urban
households from the total number of households.
The annual newly created households for a given year
is the difference between the number of households
of the preceding year and the number of households
of that year.
27
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 CHAPTER 5: PROJECTIONS OF THE TOTAL POPULATION The size of the total population is an important factor in the estimation of many demographic and socio-economic indicators, as it provides information on the population at risk used as a denominator in computing most of such indicators. Knowledge of the future size of the total population and its composition by age and sex allows decision-makers and planners to apprehend the future of the population dynamics, and hence be in a better position to effectively assess its needs and design appropriate programmes to meet these needs. This chapter presents the results of the projections of the total population over the period 2022-2052 according to the three projection scenarios presented in the preceding section.
5.1.
Population size
Whatever the scenario considered, the size of the
population of Rwanda is expected to increase from
13.2 million in 2022 to 24.2 million in 2052 according
the high scenario, 23.8 million according to the
medium scenario and 23.4 million according to the
low scenario (see Table 5.1). In other words, the
population
size
is
expected
to
increase
approximately double its current size during the next
30 years.
At the end of the period covered by the Vision 2050
(year 2050), the population size would be about 23.4
million according to the high, 23.1 million according
to the medium scenarios and 22.7 million according
to the low scenario. The degree of uncertainty is
usually low for short-term projections. By 2030, that
is the end year of the Sustainable Development
Goals, the population would be approximately 15.7
million according to the three projection scenarios.
The population size is expected to not vary
tremendously across the scenarios though the high
scenario is expected to yield a population size of
about 0.86 million individuals more than the low
scenario.
Table 5. 1. Projected population size by projection scenario, 2022-2052 (Mid-year Population)
Projection Mid-Year
Population size
High Scenario
Medium Scenario
Low Scenario
2022
13,206,731
13,206,731
13,206,731
2023
13,499,656
13,499,134
13,498,611
2024
13,800,155
13,798,561
13,796,964
2025
14,108,214
14,104,965
14,101,706
2026
14,423,666
14,418,145
14,412,600
2027
14,746,250
14,737,803
14,729,313
2028
15,075,696
15,063,640
15,051,507
2029
15,411,725
15,395,339
15,378,830
2030
15,754,101
15,732,629
15,710,973
2031
16,102,628
16,075,281
16,047,669
2032
16,457,107
16,423,064
16,388,509
2033
16,817,301
16,775,708
16,733,030
2034
17,182,921
17,132,899
17,080,855
2035
17,553,613
17,494,219
17,431,549
2036
17,928,898
17,858,979
17,784,561
2037
18,308,202
18,226,565
18,139,264
2038
18,690,979
18,596,391
18,495,048
28
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census
Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
Projection Mid-Year
Population size
High Scenario
Medium Scenario
Low Scenario
2039
19,077,155
18,968,311
18,851,722
2040
19,466,201
19,341,762
19,208,703
2041
19,857,454
19,716,059
19,565,308
2042
20,250,317
20,090,630
19,920,968
2043
20,644,388
20,465,139
20,275,332
2044
21,039,473
20,839,343
20,628,114
2045
21,435,255
21,212,882
20,978,999
2046
21,831,442
21,585,415
21,327,455
2047
22,227,792
21,956,640
21,673,212
2048
22,624,265
22,326,433
22,016,073
2049
23,020,951
22,694,774
22,355,932
2050
23,417,853
23,061,561
22,692,602
2051
23,815,071
23,426,776
23,025,978
2052
24,212,725
23,790,420
23,355,976
% Increase (2022-2052)
83.3
80.1
76.8
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
The curve of the future population size per year, as illustrated in Figure 5.1, confirms that the difference between the three scenarios is not substantial. The population size from the low scenario starts being different from the two other scenarios around year 2035. The projected population size from the high and medium scenarios is expected to remain close up to 2040. This implies that the evolution of the total population for the next 5 years is unlikely to be influenced by any existing or new policies and programmes. The difference in terms of the impact is expected to be visible after 2035. Figure 5. 1. Projected population size by projection scenario, 2022-2052 Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
10000000 12000000 14000000 16000000 18000000 20000000 22000000 24000000 26000000 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 Population Size High Scenario Medium Scenario Low Scenario
29
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census
Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
5.2.
Population growth
The projected population size between 2022 and 2052
described above corresponds to the annual growth
rates plotted in Figure 5.2. They reveal that although
the size of the population is expected to increase
continuously, the pace of this increase is bound to
continuously decrease over time.
For instance, the annual growth rate is expected to
decrease from 2.3% in 2022, 2.2% in 2023 to 1.7% in
2052 according to the high scenario, 1.5% according
to the medium scenario and 1.4% according to the low
scenario.
Figure 5. 2. Projected annual population growth rates by projection scenario, 2022-2052
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
The population evolution described above corresponds to different doubling times of the population size as shown in Figure 5.3. Regardless of the scenario, the population doubling time is expected to increase reflecting the slowing down of the population growth. Assuming an exponential growth, the population of Rwanda would double every 30 years if it had to grow at the same pace as the average one recorded in the intercensal period between 2012-2022. By 2052, this doubling time would increase up to 42 years (high scenario), 45 years (medium scenario) and 49 years (low scenario). 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.40 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 Annual Growth Rate (%) Projection Year High Scenario Medium Scenario Low Scenario
30
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Figure 5. 3. Projected doubling time of the population by projection scenario, 2022-2052
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
In summary, the projections show that irrespective of
the scenario, the population of Rwanda is expected
to continue increasing. It is bound to reach 23.8
million by the end of the projection period (2052)
according to the most likely scenario (medium
scenario). This is expected to be 0.43 million
inhabitants more than the figure from the most
optimistic scenario (the low scenario) and 0.42
million less than the high scenario. Though small in
proportionate terms, the difference in population
sizes between the medium and low scenarios is
expected to have a real impact on the limited
resources of the country.
In contrast, the difference in terms of population
growth and doubling time between the scenarios is
expected to be very important. For instance, the
doubling time according to the high scenario is
expected to be 7 years shorter than that of the low
scenario (42 versus 49 years). This means that the
type of policies and programmes that is expected to
be implemented from now on is expected to have a
limited impact on the population of Rwanda in the
near future but a significant one on the medium and
long run, and even beyond the projection period.
5.3.
Population density
The density of the population of Rwanda is expected to continue increasing regardless of all measures currently
taken to mitigate its evolution. The current density of 501 inhabitants per square km (mid-year, 503 habitants as of
15 August, 2022) is already one of the highest in Africa. Yet, in the next thirty years, an additional 400 or even more
inhabitants per square km are expected to be added depending on the projection scenario.
Table 5.2 reveals that by 2052, the population density of Rwanda is expected to be 919 inhabitants per square
kilometer (high scenario), 903 (medium scenario) and 887 (low scenario).
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
Doubling Time (Years)
Projection Year
High Scenario
Medium Scenario
Low Scenario
31
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
Table 5. 2. Projected population density by projection scenario, 2022-2052
Projection
year
High scenario
Medium scenario
Low scenario
Population
Density
(Inhabitants/sq.
km)
Population
Density
(Inhabitants/sq.
km)
Population
Density
(Inhabitants/sq.
km)
2022
13,206,731
501
13,206,731
501
13,206,731
501
2023
13,499,656
513
13,499,134
513
13,498,611
513
2024
13,800,155
524
13,798,561
524
13,796,964
524
2025
14,108,214
536
14,104,965
536
14,101,706
535
2026
14,423,666
548
14,418,145
547
14,412,600
547
2027
14,746,250
560
14,737,803
560
14,729,313
559
2028
15,075,696
572
15,063,640
572
15,051,507
571
2029
15,411,725
585
15,395,339
585
15,378,830
584
2030
15,754,101
598
15,732,629
597
15,710,973
597
2031
16,102,628
611
16,075,281
610
16,047,669
609
2032
16,457,107
625
16,423,064
624
16,388,509
622
2033
16,817,301
639
16,775,708
637
16,733,030
635
2034
17,182,921
652
17,132,899
651
17,080,855
649
2035
17,553,613
666
17,494,219
664
17,431,549
662
2036
17,928,898
681
17,858,979
678
17,784,561
675
2037
18,308,202
695
18,226,565
692
18,139,264
689
2038
18,690,979
710
18,596,391
706
18,495,048
702
2039
19,077,155
724
18,968,311
720
18,851,722
716
2040
19,466,201
739
19,341,762
734
19,208,703
729
2041
19,857,454
754
19,716,059
749
19,565,308
743
2042
20,250,317
769
20,090,630
763
19,920,968
756
2043
20,644,388
784
20,465,139
777
20,275,332
770
2044
21,039,473
799
20,839,343
791
20,628,114
783
2045
21,435,255
814
21,212,882
805
20,978,999
797
2046
21,831,442
829
21,585,415
820
21,327,455
810
2047
22,227,792
844
21,956,640
834
21,673,212
823
2048
22,624,265
859
22,326,433
848
22,016,073
836
2049
23,020,951
874
22,694,774
862
22,355,932
849
2050
23,417,853
889
23,061,561
876
22,692,602
862
2051
23,815,071
904
23,426,776
889
23,025,978
874
2052
24,212,725
919
23,790,420
903
23,355,976
887
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
The current fertility level and improvements in
human survival would result in an increase in the
population and more pressure on land and is likely to
exacerbate
within
the
next
three
decades,
irrespective of the policies and programmes
implemented, thus the population density will
increase all the time (see Figure 5.4).
Therefore, the country needs to put in place explicit
policies to deal with unavoidable and foreseeable
population overcrowding aside from the current
policies aimed at reducing the population growth
rate. Among measures to curb the fertility level, we
should think about high quality education among
adolescent especially girls and the increase of
sensitization
on
family
planning,
improving
reproductive
health
programmes
including
accessibility of contraceptives commodities.
One of measures addressing the population pressure
on agriculture land would be to accelerate
urbanization in order to free agricultural lands and
change the mode of construction from low to high
standing and maximizing housing plots but also
provide recreational services in urban areas and put
in place measures to tackle environmental issues.