36
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Table 5. 6. Projection of the age-sex structure of the Rwandan population, 2022-2052 - Low scenario Indicators of age-sex Projection Year 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 Total population 13,206,731 13,498,611 13,796,964 14,101,706 14,412,600 14,729,313 16,388,509 18,139,264 19,920,968 21,673,212 23,355,976 Percent female 51.46 51.40 51.34 51.28 51.22 51.17 50.94 50.75 50.60 50.48 50.40 Sex ratio 94.31 94.56 94.79 95.01 95.22 95.42 96.31 97.04 97.63 98.08 98.41 Median age 21 21 21 21 22 22 23 24 26 27 28 Percent 0-4 12.9 12.75 12.64 12.58 12.55 12.56 12.14 11.55 10.76 9.81 8.88 Percent 5-14 24.52 24.22 23.93 23.65 23.33 22.96 21.56 21.09 20.45 19.52 18.27 Percent 15-64 58.41 58.83 59.15 59.43 59.72 60.04 61.81 62.66 63.67 64.34 65.09 Percent 16-64 56.06 56.56 56.95 57.27 57.57 57.87 59.73 60.79 61.76 62.47 63.28 Percent 60+ 6.51 6.51 6.49 6.46 6.45 6.45 6.64 7.05 8.34 9.91 11.45 Percent 65+ 4.17 4.21 4.27 4.34 4.4 4.45 4.48 4.71 5.12 6.32 7.76 Dependency ratio 0.71 0.7 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.67 0.62 0.6 0.57 0.55 0.54 Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
5.5.
Fertility indicators
This sub-section reviews the projections of key
fertility indicators between 2022 and 2052 according
to the three projection scenarios. These indicators
are useful for planning, monitoring and evaluation
purposes within various programmes and projects.
For instance, the number of annual births in the
future is useful in allocating health care and
education resources in terms of forecasting the
requisite number of nurses to be trained to ensure
that there is sufficient skilled birth attendants.
They are also useful in designing targeted family
planning and reproductive health programmes, and
for planning the expansion of health care, child care
and pre-school institutions. The net reproduction
rate (NRR) is yet another useful indicator to
understand population growth. The NRR should be 1
or above to ensure replacement of the population.
Therefore, keeping track of its value over time is
useful in order to avoid crossing the redline that
would signify the beginning of a decline in the total
population. For instance, an NRR of 1.4 by 2052 would
suggest that, subject to fertility and mortality
conditions prevailing, the size of the population in
2052 would be 25% more than the current size of the
Rwandan population.
Table 5.7 presents the projections of key fertility
indicators by the three projection scenarios for
selected years. It reveals that:
The trend in the number of annual births varies according to the projection scenario. The future number of annual births in Rwanda is expected to be determined by the reproductive behaviour and intentions of cohorts of individuals who is expected to enter the reproductive ages over the next three decades. The number of annual births is likely to increase continuously based on the high scenario, while it is expected to start decreasing from a certain point in time (around 2045) according to the medium and low scenarios.
To analyse this trend in detail, a graphical illustration of the expected number of annual births by single year is presented in Table 5.7. The standardized birth rate (standardized number of annual births per 1,000 inhabitants) is bound to decrease from 28 per 1000 in 2022 to 20.5 per 1000 in 2052 (medium scenario).
37
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Table 5. 7. Projection of key fertility indicators by projection scenario, 2022-2052 Fertility Indicator Projection year 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 High Scenario Number of annual births 367,312 372,000 379,671 387,542 395,494 403,409 441,236 473,239 494,872 507,233 521,327 Crude Birth Rate (CBR) per 1000 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 26.8 25.8 24.4 22.8 21.5 Standardized Birth Rate (SBR) per 1000 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.4 25.5 24.6 23.8 22.8 General Fertility Rate (GFR) 106.9 105.2 104.5 103.9 103.4 103.0 101.1 99.6 95.6 89.3 84.3 Medium Scenario Number of annual births 367,312 370,964 377,548 384,279 391,038 397,704 428,474 452,146 464,178 465,322 465,194 Crude Birth Rate (CBR) per 1000 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 27 26.1 24.8 23.1 21.2 19.6 Standardized Birth Rate (SBR) per 1000 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.7 25.6 24.3 23.1 21.8 20.5 General Fertility Rate (GFR) 106.9 104.9 103.9 103.0 102.2 101.5 98.1 95.0 89.5 82.0 75.7 Low Scenario Number of annual births 367,312 369,927 375,424 381,016 386,580 391,997 415,689 430,850 433,183 423,224 409,340 Crude Birth Rate (CBR) per 1000 27.8 27.4 27.2 27 26.8 26.6 25.4 23.8 21.7 19.5 17.5 Standardized Birth Rate (SBR) per 1000 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.4 24.8 23.1 21.5 19.8 18.1 General Fertility Rate (GFR) 106.9 104.6 103.3 102.1 101.0 100.0 95.1 90.4 83.4 74.7 67.0 Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR) Figure 5.6 clearly shows the difference in the trend of the projected number of annual births by the projection scenario as the number varies substantially according to the scenario.
According to the high scenario, the number of annual births is expected to increase continuously to reach some 440,000 births by 2032. The increase in the number of annual births is attributed to the phenomenon of population momentum which implies that the number of births is expected to continue to increase for a while because the cohorts of their mothers are already born.
The medium scenario (the most likely one)
shows two phases in the evolution of the
projected annual number of births: a first phase
of increase that covers the period 2023 to 2044,
followed by a second period where the number
of annual births is expected to stabilize around
465,000 (2045-2052).
The trend from the low scenario is less regular. If the
TFR decreases down to 2.3 children per woman by
2052, the annual number of births shows two phases:
a first phase of an increase that covers the period
2022 to 2040, followed by a period of a steady
decrease to around 409,000 by 2052.
The figure below and Table 5.7 show that the
difference in terms of annual births between the
projection scenarios is expected to widen over time:
521,327 births (high scenario), 465,194 (medium
scenario) and 409,340 (low scenario) by the end of the
projection period. In other words, the choices made
in terms of policies and programmes are expected to
substantially affect the number of annual births
gradually at the beginning and more intensively as
we approach 2052.
38
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Figure 5. 6. Projection of the number of annual births by projection scenario, 2022-2052
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
Table 5.8 shows the projection of other key fertility
indicators at selected dates over the projection
period. As assumed, the TFR is expected to decrease
for all projection scenarios from 3.6 children per
woman in 2022 to 2.9 (high scenario), 2.6 (medium
scenario) and 2.3 (low scenario) in 2052. These
assumptions imply that the replacement of the
population is expected to be ensured according to all
the three scenarios since they have an NRR value
greater than 1 (1.4, 1.3 and 1.1) daughters on average
per woman according to the high, medium and low
scenarios respectively).
The table 5.8 also shows that the timing of
childbearing is not expected to vary substantially
across the projection scenarios; the mean age at
childbearing is expected to decrease slightly from 30
years in 2022 to 29.5 years in 2052.
Table 5. 8. Projection of other key fertility indicators by projection scenario, 2022-2052
Other Key Fertility Indicators
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
2052
High Scenario
Percent females aged 15-49
50.5
51.0
51.3
51.6
51.8
51.9
52.1
51.1
50.5
50.6
50.7
Total fertility rate (TFR)
3.6
3.58
3.55
3.53
3.51
3.48
3.37
3.25
3.13
3.02
2.9
Gross reproduction rate (GRR)
1.80
1.76
1.74
1.73
1.72
1.71
1.65
1.6
1.54
1.48
1.42
Net reproduction rate (NRR)
1.70
1.66
1.65
1.64
1.64
1.63
1.58
1.54
1.5
1.45
1.4
Mean age at childbearing (years)
30.0
30
30
30
29.9
29.9
29.8
29.7
29.5
29.5
29.5
Medium Scenario
Percent females aged 15-49
50.5
51.0
51.3
51.6
51.8
52.0
52.2
51.5
51.0
51.2
51.3
Total fertility rate (TFR)
3.6
3.57
3.53
3.5
3.47
3.43
3.27
3.1
2.93
2.77
2.6
Gross reproduction rate (GRR)
1.80
1.75
1.73
1.72
1.7
1.69
1.6
1.52
1.44
1.36
1.28
Net reproduction rate (NRR)
1.70
1.66
1.65
1.63
1.62
1.61
1.55
1.48
1.41
1.34
1.27
Mean age at childbearing (years)
30.0
30
30
30
29.9
29.9
29.8
29.7
29.5
29.5
29.5
Low Scenario
Percent females aged 15-49
50.5
51.0
51.3
51.6
51.8
52.0
52.4
51.8
51.5
51.8
51.9
Total fertility rate (TFR)
3.6
3.56
3.51
3.47
3.43
3.38
3.17
2.95
2.73
2.52
2.3
Gross reproduction rate (GRR)
1.80
1.75
1.72
1.7
1.68
1.66
1.55
1.45
1.34
1.24
1.13
Net reproduction rate (NRR)
1.70
1.65
1.64
1.62
1.61
1.59
1.51
1.42
1.33
1.23
1.13
Mean age at childbearing (years)
30.0
30
30
30
29.9
29.9
29.8
29.7
29.5
29.5
29.5
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
Number of Annual Births
Projection Year
High Scenario
Medium Scenario
Low Scenario
39
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census
Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
5.6.
Mortality indicators
Table 5.9 reveals a downward trend in mortality over the projection period, irrespective of the projection scenario.
However, the decrease in mortality is expected to be greater under the low scenario and less under the high
scenario. Life expectancy at birth for both sexes is likely to increase from 69.7 years in 2022 to 81.4 years (low
scenario), 78.0 years (medium scenario) and 74.8 years (high scenario) in 2052. Seemingly, infant mortality rate is
expected to decrease from 29 per 1000 live births in 2022 to levels as low as 14 per 1000 (high scenario), 7 per 1000
(medium scenario) and 4.1 per 1000 (low scenario) in 2052.
Table 5. 9. Projection of key mortality indicators by projection scenario, 2022-2052
Other Key
Mortality Indicators
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
2052
High Scenario Life expectancy at birth (Male) 67.7 67.7 67.9 68.1 68.3 68.4 69.3 70.2 71.1 71.9 72.8 Life expectancy at birth (Female) 71.2 71.3 71.5 71.7 71.9 72.1 73 74 75 75.9 76.9 Life expectancy at birth (Both sexes) 69.6 69.6 69.8 69.9 70.1 70.3 71.2 72.1 73.1 73.9 74.8 Infant mortality rate, IMR (‰) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28 24.8 21.6 18.4 16.2 13.9 Under-five mortality rate, U5MR (‰) 40.7 37.3 36.4 35.6 34.7 33.9 29.7 25.4 21.3 18.6 16 Number of annual deaths 82,242 79,075 79,172 79,483 80,042 80,826 86,757 93,935 102,009 110,883 123,673 Crude death rate, CDR (‰) 6.3 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.1 5 5 5.1
Medium Scenario Life expectancy at birth (Male) 67.7 67.8 68.1 68.4 68.6 68.9 70.3 71.7 73 74.4 75.9 Life expectancy at birth (Female) 71.2 71.4 71.7 72 72.3 72.6 74.1 75.5 76.9 78.4 80 Life expectancy at birth (Both sexes) 69.6 69.7 69.9 70.2 70.5 70.8 72.2 73.6 75 76.4 77.9 Infant mortality rate, IMR (‰) 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.3 26.3 21.3 17 13.6 10.1 6.7 Under-five mortality rate, U5MR (‰) 40.7 36.8 35.5 34.2 32.9 31.6 25.1 19.6 15.5 11.4 7.3 Number of annual deaths 82,242 78,561 78,120 77,875 77,858 78,045 80,691 84,560 89,607 94,096 101,549 Crude death rate, CDR (‰) 6.3 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.3
Low Scenario Life expectancy at birth (Male) 67.7 67.9 68.3 68.7 69 69.4 71.3 73.1 75 77.2 79.5 Life expectancy at birth (Female) 71.2 71.5 71.9 72.3 72.7 73.1 75.1 77 78.9 81.1 83.5 Life expectancy at birth (Both sexes) 69.6 69.8 70.1 70.5 70.9 71.3 73.2 75.1 77 79.2 81.5 Infant mortality rate, IMR (‰) 28.9 28.7 28.5 27.2 25.9 24.5 18 13.4 8.7 4.1 4.1 Under-five mortality rate, U5MR (‰) 40.7 36.3 34.6 32.8 31.1 29.3 20.8 15.3 9.7 4.2 4.2 Number of annual deaths 82,242 78,047 77,071 76,274 75,686 75,284 74,849 76,147 77,522 77,467 79,342 Crude death rate, CDR (‰) 6.3 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.1 4.6 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.4 Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)