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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 CHAPTER 6: PROJECTIONS OF THE URBAN POPULATION
This chapter discusses the projections of different aspects of the urban population between 2022 and 2052 according to the high, medium and low projection scenarios, i.e. population size, population density and population age-sex structure. Before presenting the projections, the strategies of urban planning based on the revised Vision 2050 target are examined.
6.1.
An overview of the current official policy on urbanization
Vision 2050 states that “as one of the future drivers
of the country’s growth, the overarching objective is
to have 70% of the population living in urban areas
by 2050”. Table 6.1 and Figure 6.2 are the simulation
of what would be the size of the urban population
between 2022 and 2052 based on the Vision 2050
target.
Accordingly, the size of the urban population in 2052
is bound to be about 4.6 times greater than its current
size. It is expected to increase from 3.7 million in 2022
to at least 16.2 million (low scenario), 16.5 million
(medium scenario) and 16.8 million (high scenario) by
2052. Such a rapid increase in a period of 30 years
means that huge investments in terms of
infrastructure is expected to be required to
accommodate at least 12.5 million more urban
dwellers.
Figure 6. 1. Evolution of urbanization rate (2022-2052)
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
28 35 42 48 54 62 70 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 Urbanization rate
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Table 6. 1. Projection of the urban population by projection scenario, 2022-2052 Projection year High Scenario Medium Scenario Low Scenario Urbanization rate (%) Total population Urban population Total population Urban population Total population Urban population 2022 13,206,731 3,677,954 13,206,731 3,677,954 13,206,731 3,677,954 27.85 2023 13,499,656 3,949,206 13,499,134 3,949,053 13,498,611 3,948,900 29.25 2024 13,800,155 4,231,010 13,798,561 4,230,522 13,796,964 4,230,032 30.66 2025 14,108,214 4,523,683 14,104,965 4,522,641 14,101,706 4,521,596 32.06 2026 14,423,666 4,827,487 14,418,145 4,825,639 14,412,600 4,823,783 33.47 2027 14,746,250 5,142,642 14,737,803 5,139,697 14,729,313 5,136,736 34.87 2028 15,075,696 5,469,353 15,063,640 5,464,979 15,051,507 5,460,577 36.28 2029 15,411,725 5,807,801 15,395,339 5,801,626 15,378,830 5,795,405 37.68 2030 15,754,101 6,158,172 15,732,629 6,149,779 15,710,973 6,141,314 39.09 2031 16,102,628 6,520,656 16,075,281 6,509,582 16,047,669 6,498,401 40.49 2032 16,457,107 6,895,428 16,423,064 6,881,164 16,388,509 6,866,685 41.90 2033 16,817,301 7,229,504 16,775,708 7,211,624 16,733,030 7,193,277 42.99 2034 17,182,921 7,578,684 17,132,899 7,556,621 17,080,855 7,533,666 44.11 2035 17,553,613 7,943,424 17,494,219 7,916,547 17,431,549 7,888,187 45.25 2036 17,928,898 8,324,140 17,858,979 8,291,677 17,784,561 8,257,126 46.43 2037 18,308,202 8,721,194 18,226,565 8,682,306 18,139,264 8,640,720 47.64 2038 18,690,979 9,134,966 18,596,391 9,088,737 18,495,048 9,039,207 48.87 2039 19,077,155 9,566,056 18,968,311 9,511,478 18,851,722 9,453,015 50.14 2040 19,466,201 10,014,864 19,341,762 9,950,843 19,208,703 9,882,388 51.45 2041 19,857,454 10,481,706 19,716,059 10,407,071 19,565,308 10,327,497 52.78 2042 20,250,317 10,966,922 20,090,630 10,880,440 19,920,968 10,788,557 54.16 2043 20,644,388 11,470,951 20,465,139 11,371,352 20,275,332 11,265,887 55.56 2044 21,039,473 11,994,351 20,839,343 11,880,259 20,628,114 11,759,840 57.01 2045 21,435,255 12,537,620 21,212,882 12,407,552 20,978,999 12,270,753 58.49 2046 21,831,442 13,101,269 21,585,415 12,953,625 21,327,455 12,798,821 60.01 2047 22,227,792 13,685,850 21,956,640 13,518,899 21,673,212 13,344,389 61.57 2048 22,624,265 14,292,047 22,326,433 14,103,902 22,016,073 13,907,844 63.17 2049 23,020,951 14,920,649 22,694,774 14,709,243 22,355,932 14,489,629 64.81 2050 23,417,853 15,572,420 23,061,561 15,335,493 22,692,602 15,090,142 66.50 2051 23,815,071 16,248,206 23,426,776 15,983,285 23,025,978 15,709,835 68.23 2052 24,212,725 16,948,907 23,790,420 16,653,294 23,355,976 16,349,183 70.00 % Increase (2022-2052) 83.34 360.82 80.14 121 76.85 344.52 151.35 Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census
Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
6.2.
Size of the urban population
As presented in figure 6.2 and table 6.2, the urban population is expected to increase from 3.7 million in 2022 to 16.8
million (high scenario), 16.5 million (medium scenario) and 16.2 million (low scenario) by 2052.
This corresponds to an overall increase of 361%, 353% and 344% respectively in the next 30 years, equivalent to
more than 4 times the expected increase rate in the total population.
At the end of the period covered by Vision 2050, the urban population is expected to be just above 15 million,
regardless of the projection scenario. This is still high and is expected to require huge investments in infrastructure
and resources within urban areas.
Figure 6. 2. Urban population growth (2022-2052)
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
Table 6. 2. Evolution of the size of the urban vs rural population by projection scenario, 2022-2052 Projection year High Scenario Medium Scenario Low Scenario Urbanization rate (%) Total population Urban population Rural population Total population Urban population Rural population Total population Urban population Rural population 2022 13,206,731 3,677,954 9,528,777 13,206,731 3,677,954 9,528,777 13,206,731 3,677,954 9,528,777 27.85 2023 13,499,656 3,949,206 9,550,450 13,499,134 3,949,053 9,550,081 13,498,611 3,948,900 9,549,711 29.25 2024 13,800,155 4,231,010 9,569,145 13,798,561 4,230,522 9,568,039 13,796,964 4,230,032 9,566,932 30.66 2025 14,108,214 4,523,683 9,584,531 14,104,965 4,522,641 9,582,324 14,101,706 4,521,596 9,580,110 32.06 2026 14,423,666 4,827,487 9,596,179 14,418,145 4,825,639 9,592,506 14,412,600 4,823,783 9,588,817 33.47 2027 14,746,250 5,142,642 9,603,608 14,737,803 5,139,697 9,598,106 14,729,313 5,136,736 9,592,577 34.87 2028 15,075,696 5,469,353 9,606,343 15,063,640 5,464,979 9,598,661 15,051,507 5,460,577 9,590,930 36.28 2029 15,411,725 5,807,801 9,603,924 15,395,339 5,801,626 9,593,713 15,378,830 5,795,405 9,583,425 37.68 2030 15,754,101 6,158,172 9,595,929 15,732,629 6,149,779 9,582,850 15,710,973 6,141,314 9,569,659 39.09 2031 16,102,628 6,520,656 9,581,972 16,075,281 6,509,582 9,565,699 16,047,669 6,498,401 9,549,268 40.49 2032 16,457,107 6,895,428 9,561,679 16,423,064 6,881,164 9,541,900 16,388,509 6,866,685 9,521,824 41.90 2033 16,817,301 7,229,504 9,587,797 16,775,708 7,211,624 9,564,084 16,733,030 7,193,277 9,539,753 42.99 2034 17,182,921 7,578,684 9,604,237 17,132,899 7,556,621 9,576,278 17,080,855 7,533,666 9,547,189 44.11 2035 17,553,613 7,943,424 9,610,189 17,494,219 7,916,547 9,577,672 17,431,549 7,888,187 9,543,362 45.25 2036 17,928,898 8,324,140 9,604,758 17,858,979 8,291,677 9,567,302 17,784,561 8,257,126 9,527,435 46.43 2037 18,308,202 8,721,194 9,587,008 18,226,565 8,682,306 9,544,259 18,139,264 8,640,720 9,498,544 47.64 2038 18,690,979 9,134,966 9,556,013 18,596,391 9,088,737 9,507,654 18,495,048 9,039,207 9,455,841 48.87
2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 18,000,000 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 Projections year High scenario Medium scenario Low scenario
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Projection year High Scenario Medium Scenario Low Scenario Urbanization rate (%) Total population Urban population Rural population Total population Urban population Rural population Total population Urban population Rural population 2039 19,077,155 9,566,056 9,511,099 18,968,311 9,511,478 9,456,833 18,851,722 9,453,015 9,398,707 50.14 2040 19,466,201 10,014,864 9,451,337 19,341,762 9,950,843 9,390,919 19,208,703 9,882,388 9,326,315 51.45 2041 19,857,454 10,481,706 9,375,748 19,716,059 10,407,071 9,308,988 19,565,308 10,327,497 9,237,811 52.78 2042 20,250,317 10,966,922 9,283,395 20,090,630 10,880,440 9,210,190 19,920,968 10,788,557 9,132,411 54.16 2043 20,644,388 11,470,951 9,173,437 20,465,139 11,371,352 9,093,787 20,275,332 11,265,887 9,009,445 55.56 2044 21,039,473 11,994,351 9,045,122 20,839,343 11,880,259 8,959,084 20,628,114 11,759,840 8,868,274 57.01 2045 21,435,255 12,537,620 8,897,635 21,212,882 12,407,552 8,805,330 20,978,999 12,270,753 8,708,246 58.49 2046 21,831,442 13,101,269 8,730,173 21,585,415 12,953,625 8,631,790 21,327,455 12,798,821 8,528,634 60.01 2047 22,227,792 13,685,850 8,541,942 21,956,640 13,518,899 8,437,741 21,673,212 13,344,389 8,328,823 61.57 2048 22,624,265 14,292,047 8,332,218 22,326,433 14,103,902 8,222,531 22,016,073 13,907,844 8,108,229 63.17 2049 23,020,951 14,920,649 8,100,302 22,694,774 14,709,243 7,985,531 22,355,932 14,489,629 7,866,303 64.81 2050 23,417,853 15,572,420 7,845,433 23,061,561 15,335,493 7,726,068 22,692,602 15,090,142 7,602,460 66.50 2051 23,815,071 16,248,206 7,566,865 23,426,776 15,983,285 7,443,491 23,025,978 15,709,835 7,316,143 68.23 2052 24,212,725 16,948,907 7,263,818 23,790,420 16,653,294 7,137,126 23,355,976 16,349,183 7,006,793 70.00 % Increase (2022-2052) 83.3 360.8 (23.8) 80.1 352.8 (25.1) 76.8 344.5 (26.5) 151.35 Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
6.3.
Age-sex structure of the urban population
Figure 6.3 shows a comparison of the age pyramids of the urban population in 2022 and 2052 under the three
projection scenarios in comparison of that of 2022. It shows that at the end of projection period, the age-sex
structure of the urban population is expected to change, regardless of the projection scenario.
The population in the 25-54 age group is expected to have the greatest share of the total urban population by 2052, as in 2022. This age group forms the majority of the working-age population. The number of males is expected to continue to slightly out-number the number of women in this age group.The share of the child population is expected to decrease while the share of the elderly is expected to increase under all the three projection scenarios.
Figure 6. 3. Comparison of the 2022 and 2052 age pyramids of the Rwandan urban population by projection scenario Age-group pyramid (%) of the urban population in 2022
15 10 5 0 5 10 15 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+ Female Male