50
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Table 7. 1. Projection of the rural population by projection scenario, 2022-2052 Projection Year High Scenario Medium Scenario Low Scenario Rwanda Rural Rwanda Rural Rwanda Rural 2022 13,206,731 9,528,777 13,206,731 9,528,777 13,206,731 9,528,777 2023 13,499,656 9,550,450 13,499,134 9,550,081 13,498,611 9,549,711 2024 13,800,155 9,569,145 13,798,561 9,568,039 13,796,964 9,566,932 2025 14,108,214 9,584,531 14,104,965 9,582,324 14,101,706 9,580,110 2026 14,423,666 9,596,179 14,418,145 9,592,506 14,412,600 9,588,817 2027 14,746,250 9,603,608 14,737,803 9,598,106 14,729,313 9,592,577 2028 15,075,696 9,606,343 15,063,640 9,598,661 15,051,507 9,590,930 2029 15,411,725 9,603,924 15,395,339 9,593,713 15,378,830 9,583,425 2030 15,754,101 9,595,929 15,732,629 9,582,850 15,710,973 9,569,659 2031 16,102,628 9,581,972 16,075,281 9,565,699 16,047,669 9,549,268 2032 16,457,107 9,561,679 16,423,064 9,541,900 16,388,509 9,521,824 2033 16,817,301 9,587,797 16,775,708 9,564,084 16,733,030 9,539,753 2034 17,182,921 9,604,237 17,132,899 9,576,278 17,080,855 9,547,189 2035 17,553,613 9,610,189 17,494,219 9,577,672 17,431,549 9,543,362 2036 17,928,898 9,604,758 17,858,979 9,567,302 17,784,561 9,527,435 2037 18,308,202 9,587,008 18,226,565 9,544,259 18,139,264 9,498,544 2038 18,690,979 9,556,013 18,596,391 9,507,654 18,495,048 9,455,841 2039 19,077,155 9,511,099 18,968,311 9,456,833 18,851,722 9,398,707 2040 19,466,201 9,451,337 19,341,762 9,390,919 19,208,703 9,326,315 2041 19,857,454 9,375,748 19,716,059 9,308,988 19,565,308 9,237,811 2042 20,250,317 9,283,395 20,090,630 9,210,190 19,920,968 9,132,411 2043 20,644,388 9,173,437 20,465,139 9,093,787 20,275,332 9,009,445 2044 21,039,473 9,045,122 20,839,343 8,959,084 20,628,114 8,868,274 2045 21,435,255 8,897,635 21,212,882 8,805,330 20,978,999 8,708,246 2046 21,831,442 8,730,173 21,585,415 8,631,790 21,327,455 8,528,634 2047 22,227,792 8,541,942 21,956,640 8,437,741 21,673,212 8,328,823 2048 22,624,265 8,332,218 22,326,433 8,222,531 22,016,073 8,108,229 2049 23,020,951 8,100,302 22,694,774 7,985,531 22,355,932 7,866,303 2050 23,417,853 7,845,433 23,061,561 7,726,068 22,692,602 7,602,460 2051 23,815,071 7,566,865 23,426,776 7,443,491 23,025,978 7,316,143 2052 24,212,725 7,263,818 23,790,420 7,137,126 23,355,976 7,006,793 % Increase (2022-2052) 83.34% -23.77% 80.14% -25.10% 76.85% -26.47% Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
7.2.
Age-sex structure of the projected rural population
Figure 7.2 compares the age pyramid of the rural
population in 2022 with the age pyramids of the
projected rural population in 2052 by projection
scenario. It shows that by the end of projection
period, the age-sex structure of the rural population
is expected to change based on the assumptions
regarding future growth of the urban population. The
rural population is expected to be less young as
evidenced by a marked decrease in the share of
children and an increase in the share of the
population in older age groups.
A marked difference in the population age-sex
structure between that in 2022 and those in 2052 is a
dip in the proportion of the population aged 20-34
across the three projection scenarios. This is in line
with the expected sharp increase in the projected
urban population, i.e. a sizeable proportion of young
people is expected to move from rural to urban areas.
51
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Figure 7. 2. Comparison of the 2022 and 2052 age pyramids of the rural population by projection scenario Age-group pyramid (%) of the rural population in 2022
Age-group pyramid (%) of the rural population in 2052 – High scenario
Age-group pyramid (%) of the rural population in 2052 – Medium scenario
20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+ Female Male 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+ Female Male 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+ Female Male
52
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Age-group pyramid (%) of the rural population in 2052 – Low scenario
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
Table 7.2 provides more detailed information on the changes that are expected to influence the age-sex structure. It is indicated in this table that irrespective of the projection scenario, the share of women in the rural population is expected to decrease slightly (from 52% in 2022 to 50.4% in 2052). The rural population is expected to become less and less young over time. The median age is expected to substantially increase from 20 years to 27 years (high scenario); to 28 years (medium scenario); and to 30 years (low scenario). Elderly people aged 60 years and above accounted for 7% of the rural population in 2022 but their share is expected to be greater than 8% in 2032 and close to 16% in 2052. A similar upward trend is expected in the share of the population aged 15-64 years. 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+ Female Male
53
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census - Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Table 7. 2. The age-sex structure of the projected rural population by projection scenario, 2022-2052 Age-sex structure Indicators Projection Year 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 High Scenario Both sexes 9,528,775 9,550,450 9,569,145 9,584,531 9,596,179 9,603,607 9,561,680 9,587,007 9,283,395 8,541,943 7,263,817 % female 52.10 51.40 51.34 51.28 51.22 51.17 50.93 50.74 50.58 50.46 50.38 Median age 20 20 20 21 21 21 22 23 24 25 27 % aged 0-4 12.91 12.78 12.7 12.67 12.69 12.76 12.62 12.27 11.67 10.88 10.13 % aged 5-14 25.73 25.48 25.24 25 24.72 24.38 23.25 23.26 23.17 22.78 22.03 % aged 15-64 56.59 56.91 57.12 57.28 57.43 57.62 58.73 58.76 58.97 58.66 58.37 % aged 16-64 54.18 54.58 54.85 55.05 55.21 55.39 56.57 56.84 56.97 56.67 56.40 % aged 60+ 7.42 7.46 7.48 7.50 7.53 7.57 7.99 8.54 10.14 12.13 14.14 % aged 65+ 4.76 4.83 4.94 5.05 5.16 5.24 5.41 5.70 6.19 7.67 9.47 Medium Scenario Both sexes 9,528,775 9,550,081 9,568,040 9,582,324 9,592,506 9,598,106 9,541,900 9,544,259 9,210,190 8,437,741 7,137,126 % female 52.10 51.40 51.34 51.28 51.22 51.17 50.93 50.74 50.59 50.47 50.39 Median age 20 20 20 21 21 21 22 23 25 26 28 % aged 0-4 12.91 12.77 12.68 12.63 12.63 12.67 12.39 11.91 11.18 10.26 9.36 % aged 5-14 25.73 25.48 25.25 25.01 24.73 24.4 23.23 23.07 22.76 22.11 21.1 % aged 15-64 56.59 56.91 57.13 57.3 57.46 57.67 58.93 59.19 59.64 59.51 59.33 % aged 16-64 54.18 54.6 54.9 55.1 55.2 55.4 56.8 57.3 57.6 57.5 57.4 % aged 60+ 7.42 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.6 8.1 8.7 10.5 12.7 15.1 % aged 65+ 4.76 4.84 4.94 5.06 5.17 5.25 5.46 5.82 6.43 8.12 10.22 Low Scenario Both sexes 9,528,775 9,549,711 9,566,932 9,580,110 9,588,817 9,592,577 9,521,823 9,498,544 9,132,411 8,328,822 7,006,793 % female 52.10 51.40 51.34 51.28 51.22 51.17 50.94 50.75 50.60 50.48 50.40 Median age 20 20 20 21 21 21 22 24 25 27 30 % aged 0-4 12.91 12.77 12.66 12.6 12.58 12.59 12.16 11.53 10.66 9.61 8.55 % aged 5-14 25.73 25.48 25.25 25.02 24.75 24.42 23.2 22.88 22.31 21.4 20.1 % aged 15-64 56.59 56.91 57.14 57.32 57.5 57.73 59.12 59.63 60.33 60.39 60.3 % aged 16-64 54.18 54.58 54.88 55.09 55.28 55.49 56.96 57.69 58.35 58.44 58.42 % aged 60+ 7.42 7.46 7.49 7.52 7.55 7.61 8.13 8.88 10.83 13.36 16.14 % aged 65+ 4.76 4.84 4.95 5.07 5.18 5.27 5.51 5.96 6.7 8.6 11.04 Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census
Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
7.3.
Density of the projected rural population
The density of the projected rural population is
expected to increase marginally up to about 2035,
then start a downward trend as depicted in Table
7.3.Thirty years from 2022, this figure is bound to be
301 (high scenario), 295 (medium scenario) and 290
(low scenario) inhabitants per square kilometre.
However, the true density is expected to be greater
than these figures given that the surface area
covered by urban areas is expected to increase as
discussed in section 6.4 above, implying a reduction
in the surface area for rural areas.
Table 7. 3. Density of the projected rural population by projection scenario, 2022-2052
Projection Year
High Scenario
Medium Scenario
Low Scenario
Rural
Density
Rural
Density
Rural
Density
2022
9,528,777
394
9,528,777
394
9,528,777
394
2023
9,550,450
395
9,550,081
395
9,549,711
395
2024
9,569,145
396
9,568,039
396
9,566,932
396
2025
9,584,531
397
9,582,324
396
9,580,110
396
2026
9,596,179
397
9,592,506
397
9,588,817
397
2027
9,603,608
397
9,598,106
397
9,592,577
397
2028
9,606,343
397
9,598,661
397
9,590,930
397
2029
9,603,924
397
9,593,713
397
9,583,425
397
2030
9,595,929
397
9,582,850
396
9,569,659
396
2031
9,581,972
396
9,565,699
396
9,549,268
395
2032
9,561,679
396
9,541,900
395
9,521,824
394
2033
9,587,797
397
9,564,084
396
9,539,753
395
2034
9,604,237
397
9,576,278
396
9,547,189
395
2035
9,610,189
398
9,577,672
396
9,543,362
395
2036
9,604,758
397
9,567,302
396
9,527,435
394
2037
9,587,008
397
9,544,259
395
9,498,544
393
2038
9,556,013
395
9,507,654
393
9,455,841
391
2039
9,511,099
394
9,456,833
391
9,398,707
389
2040
9,451,337
391
9,390,919
389
9,326,315
386
2041
9,375,748
388
9,308,988
385
9,237,811
382
2042
9,283,395
384
9,210,190
381
9,132,411
378
2043
9,173,437
380
9,093,787
376
9,009,445
373
2044
9,045,122
374
8,959,084
371
8,868,274
367
2045
8,897,635
368
8,805,330
364
8,708,246
360
2046
8,730,173
361
8,631,790
357
8,528,634
353
2047
8,541,942
353
8,437,741
349
8,328,823
345
2048
8,332,218
345
8,222,531
340
8,108,229
335
2049
8,100,302
335
7,985,531
330
7,866,303
325
2050
7,845,433
325
7,726,068
320
7,602,460
315
2051
7,566,865
313
7,443,491
308
7,316,143
303
2052
7,263,818
301
7,137,126
295
7,006,793
290
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
In any case, an increase in the population density is unavoidable. As the population density increases, the pressure on land is expected to become greater with increasing urbanization. Consequently, more arable land is likely to experience change of land use due to a shift from agricultural to non-agricultural activities. Whichever the solution, this problem is expected to require that special attention be paid to ensure that other emerging issues do not complicate the situation further. For instance, a shift to non- agricultural activities should not translate into a decrease in the agricultural production. Such a choice should, therefore, be accompanied by an intensification and modernization in the agriculture sector.