58
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Table 8. 4. Evolution of the working-age population by area of residence, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario Projection Year Working-age population Rwanda Urban Rural 2022 7,404,217 2,241,771 5,162,444 2023 7,634,209 2,421,865 5,212,344 2024 7,856,801 2,607,321 5,249,481 2025 8,075,249 2,798,100 5,277,149 2026 8,294,713 2,995,108 5,299,605 2027 8,521,219 3,199,915 5,321,304 2028 8,758,315 3,414,098 5,344,217 2029 9,005,834 3,637,943 5,367,891 2030 9,260,925 3,870,959 5,389,966 2031 9,519,245 4,112,038 5,407,207 2032 9,776,449 4,359,775 5,416,674 2033 10,029,366 4,581,184 5,448,182 2034 10,275,110 4,808,147 5,466,962 2035 10,518,147 5,042,429 5,475,718 2036 10,759,409 5,284,380 5,475,029 2037 10,999,394 5,534,274 5,465,120 2038 11,238,489 5,791,841 5,446,648 2039 11,493,592 6,066,002 5,427,591 2040 11,751,030 6,351,262 5,399,768 2041 12,007,850 6,646,978 5,360,871 2042 12,261,969 6,952,682 5,309,287 2043 12,512,574 7,268,807 5,243,767 2044 12,760,380 7,595,477 5,164,903 2045 13,006,701 7,933,423 5,073,278 2046 13,253,586 8,283,756 4,969,831 2047 13,502,566 8,647,478 4,855,088 2048 13,753,852 9,025,301 4,728,551 2049 14,007,022 9,417,250 4,589,771 2050 14,262,241 9,823,785 4,438,457 2051 14,519,550 10,245,293 4,274,257 2052 14,778,832 10,682,086 4,096,746 % Increase (2022-2052) 99.6 376.5 (20.6) Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR) Figure 8.1 shows the evolution of the age dependency ratio, which is the number of persons whose age is out of the working age-group per 100 persons in the working-age group. The results show that the proportion of dependents is expected to be on the decline as the working-age population increases over time. The age dependency ratio is expected to decrease from: 70 dependents per 100 working-age individuals to 56 for the country as a whole; 58 to 52 in urban areas; and 77 to 69 per 100 working-age individuals in rural areas. The age dependency ratio is expected to remain higher in rural areas than in urban areas throughout the projection period. The downtrend in age dependency ratio may be partially a consequence of the decline in fertility over the projection period. In line with this, it is expected an increase in survivors over age 65, to some extent offset by a decline in the absolute number of child population aged below 16.
59
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Figure 8. 1. Evolution of the age dependency ratio by place of residence, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
8.3.
Elderly population
In Rwanda, the formal retirement age is now 65 years old, whereas the international definition uses 60 years as the
lower limit. The analysis considered both age-groups .
Table 8.5 shows that the size of the elderly aged 60 and above is expected to have doubled between 2022 and 2052, an increase of 196%. The increase is expected to be even more substantial in urban areas where the number of the elderly in 2052 is expected to be 9 times greater than in 2022; whereas in the rural areas, the increase is expected to be twofold. The increase also varies by sex, regardless of the place of residence. The increase in relative terms is expected to be more accentuated among males than females at national and rural levels than in urban areas. For instance, at the national level, the increase in the male elderly population between 2022 and 2052 is expected to be 221% as compared to 178% among females.
Table 8. 5. . Evolution of the size of the elderly (60 years and above) by sex and place of residence, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario Projection Year Rwanda Urban Rural Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female 2022 860,344 355,400 504,945 153,008 67,047 85,963 707,340 288,354 418,985 2023 878,111 363,858 514,253 165,905 69,801 96,104 712,206 294,058 418,149 2024 894,428 371,591 522,837 178,197 75,124 103,073 716,231 296,467 419,764 2025 910,436 379,110 531,326 190,873 80,582 110,291 719,563 298,528 421,035 2026 927,805 387,154 540,651 204,343 86,367 117,976 723,462 300,787 422,675 2027 947,692 396,228 551,463 218,964 92,646 126,319 728,727 303,583 425,145 2028 970,682 406,649 564,032 235,007 99,559 135,448 735,675 307,090 428,585 2029 996,379 418,244 578,135 252,485 107,107 145,378 743,894 311,137 432,757 2030 1,023,958 430,520 593,438 271,277 115,197 156,080 752,681 315,323 437,357 2031 1,052,247 442,788 609,459 291,116 123,649 167,467 761,131 319,139 441,991 2032 1,080,693 454,723 625,971 311,873 132,366 179,507 768,821 322,357 446,464 2033 1,108,941 466,111 642,830 330,444 140,000 190,444 778,497 326,111 452,386 2034 1,138,036 477,559 660,478 350,243 148,039 202,204 787,793 329,519 458,274 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 Age Dependency Ratio Projection Year Rwanda Urban Rural
60
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Projection Year Rwanda Urban Rural Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female 2035 1,170,524 490,560 679,964 372,201 157,021 215,180 798,322 333,538 464,784 2036 1,209,826 507,091 702,734 397,671 167,724 229,947 812,155 339,367 472,787 2037 1,258,155 528,450 729,705 427,740 180,770 246,969 830,416 347,680 482,736 2038 1,316,242 555,053 761,189 463,058 196,522 266,536 853,184 358,531 494,653 2039 1,383,148 586,376 796,771 503,716 215,000 288,716 879,432 371,376 508,056 2040 1,457,329 621,598 835,731 549,528 236,085 313,443 907,801 385,513 522,288 2041 1,536,502 659,483 877,019 599,946 259,447 340,499 936,556 400,035 536,520 2042 1,618,929 699,080 919,849 654,570 284,834 369,736 964,359 414,246 550,113 2043 1,704,234 740,189 964,045 713,444 312,235 401,209 990,790 427,953 562,836 2044 1,792,584 782,882 1,009,702 777,027 341,883 435,144 1,015,557 440,999 574,558 2045 1,883,402 826,789 1,056,613 845,426 373,779 471,647 1,037,976 453,010 584,966 2046 1,976,091 871,520 1,104,571 918,741 407,912 510,829 1,057,350 463,608 593,742 2047 2,070,089 916,729 1,153,360 997,072 444,281 552,791 1,073,017 472,448 600,569 2048 2,165,133 962,239 1,202,894 1,080,584 482,915 597,669 1,084,549 479,324 605,225 2049 2,260,865 1,007,878 1,252,987 1,169,473 523,902 645,571 1,091,393 483,976 607,416 2050 2,356,582 1,053,351 1,303,231 1,263,731 567,249 696,483 1,092,851 486,102 606,749 2051 2,451,531 1,098,367 1,353,164 1,363,302 612,958 750,344 1,088,229 485,408 602,821 2052 2,545,322 1,142,783 1,402,539 1,468,299 661,107 807,192 1,077,023 481,676 595,347 % Increase (2022-2052) 195.8 221.5 177.8 859.6 886.0 839.0 52.3 67.0 42.1 Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
In absolute numbers, more females than males are
expected in the elderly population throughout the
projection period. With regard to place of residence,
the
elderly
population
is
expected
to
be
predominantly concentrated in rural areas. However,
the growth rate of the elderly population is expected
to be higher in urban than in rural areas. This is partly
driven by the expected fast increase in urban
population by 2052.
For national planning purposes, Table 8.6 presents
the evolution of the size of the population aged 65
years and above. The results confirm similar patterns
as those observed in Table 8.5.
Table 8. 6. Evolution of the size of the elderly (65 years and above) by sex and place of residence, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario Projecti on Year Rwanda Urban Rural Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female 2022 550,275 219,018 331,260 96,361 39,729 56,634 453,917 179,289 274,627 2023 567,575 227,245 340,330 105,790 41,970 63,820 461,785 185,275 276,510 2024 588,640 236,959 351,681 115,734 46,216 69,519 472,906 190,743 282,163 2025 611,487 247,298 364,189 126,572 50,816 75,757 484,915 196,482 288,432 2026 633,630 257,209 376,421 137,843 55,564 82,279 495,787 201,645 294,142 2027 653,433 266,014 387,419 149,172 60,299 88,873 504,261 205,714 298,547 2028 670,343 273,487 396,856 160,376 64,944 95,433 509,967 208,543 301,423 2029 684,990 279,915 405,075 171,531 69,529 102,002 513,459 210,387 303,072 2030 698,539 285,823 412,716 182,878 74,168 108,710 515,661 211,654 304,007 2031 712,703 291,959 420,745 194,859 79,063 115,796 517,844 212,896 304,948 2032 728,728 298,858 429,870 207,862 84,383 123,479 520,865 214,474 306,391 2033 747,285 306,866 440,419 220,151 89,446 130,705 527,133 217,419 309,714 2034 768,143 315,879 452,264 233,801 95,094 138,706 534,342 220,784 313,558 2035 790,639 325,502 465,136 248,712 101,249 147,463 541,927 224,253 317,674 2036 813,821 335,170 478,652 264,674 107,761 156,913 549,147 227,409 321,739 2037 837,145 344,569 492,576 281,576 114,547 167,030 555,569 230,023 325,546 2038 860,239 353,493 506,747 299,332 121,540 177,792 560,907 231,952 328,955 2039 884,074 362,495 521,579 318,332 128,947 189,385 565,742 233,548 332,194 2040 911,044 372,938 538,106 339,542 137,304 202,238 571,502 235,635 335,868 2041 944,331 386,624 557,707 364,358 147,391 216,968 579,972 239,233 340,739