61
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Projecti on Year Rwanda Urban Rural Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female 2042 986,145 404,792 581,353 393,985 159,867 234,118 592,160 244,925 347,235 2043 1,037,290 427,861 609,429 429,147 175,096 254,051 608,143 252,765 355,378 2044 1,096,922 455,346 641,576 470,036 193,150 276,886 626,887 262,196 364,690 2045 1,163,518 486,444 677,074 516,499 213,918 302,580 647,019 272,525 374,494 2046 1,234,743 519,926 714,817 567,958 237,065 330,893 666,785 282,861 383,924 2047 1,308,730 554,816 753,914 623,940 262,314 361,626 684,790 292,502 392,288 2048 1,384,897 590,833 794,064 684,474 289,670 394,804 700,423 301,163 399,260 2049 1,463,254 627,985 835,269 749,930 319,320 430,609 713,324 308,664 404,660 2050 1,543,197 665,907 877,290 820,363 351,256 469,106 722,834 314,651 408,183 2051 1,624,209 704,262 919,947 895,864 385,474 510,390 728,345 318,788 409,557 2052 1,705,854 742,773 963,081 976,556 421,991 554,565 729,299 320,783 408,516 % Increase (2022- 2052)
210.0
239.1
190.7
913.4
962.2
879.2
60.7
78.9
48.8
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
As discussed earlier, the increase in the size of the
elderly aged 60 years and above is not huge in terms
of percentages: 7% in 2022 to 16% in 2052. However,
this does not mean that aging is expected not to be
an issue of concern in Rwanda. The challenge for the
government is to secure requisite resources towards
meeting various needs of the elderly, including
infrastructure, health care, etc.
The existing policies in Rwanda that deal with the
elderly should pay special attention to these aspects
rather than focusing mainly on the absolute size of
the elderly. A good starting point would be to conduct
an in-depth analysis of the living conditions of the
elderly, using the available data sources (PHCs, DHSs
and EICVs).
8.4.
Other specific intervention target groups
This section presents findings on the size and evolution of certain population sub-groups that form targets of
specific interventions or that fall under some legal categories.
These include:
population targeted by different health interventions (infants below 1 year, children aged 1-4 years, children under five and women in the reproductive ages);
children aged 0-17 years, youth aged 14-35 years (official definition in Rwanda) and youth aged 15-24 years (international definition); and
the different age-groups that fall under the legal categories: 14 years and above (criminal responsibility), 16
years above (eligibility to national identification), 18 years above (emancipation age) and 21 years and above
(majority age).
The findings on the evolution of these different age-groups by place of residence between 2022 and 2052 are
presented in Table 8.7, Table 8.8, and Table 8.9. The sizes of all these age-groups are expected to increase
irrespective of the projection scenario. However, the increase is expected to be far more important in urban than in
rural areas.
62
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Table 8. 7. Evolution of the size of selected population age groups targeted by health interventions by place of residence, 2022- 2052 - Medium scenario Area of residence 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 0 Years Rwanda 345,089 361,344 368,054 374,919 381,821 388,643 420,399 445,226 458,482 461,023 462,307 Urban 95,468 105,312 112,422 119,761 127,302 135,011 175,739 212,415 250,264 287,478 328,413 Rural 248,515 256,031 255,632 255,158 254,519 253,632 244,660 232,811 208,218 173,545 133,894 0-4 Years Rwanda 1,358,255 1,721,713 1,746,845 1,778,911 1,817,916 1,863,687 2,031,501 2,174,509 2,266,532 2,298,925 2,306,493 Urban 472,740 501,787 533,573 568,239 606,105 647,428 849,225 1,037,447 1,237,195 1,433,530 1,638,484 Rural 1,274,972 1,219,926 1,213,272 1,210,672 1,211,811 1,216,260 1,182,275 1,137,061 1,029,337 865,395 668,009 1-4 Years Rwanda 1,359,362 1,360,369 1,378,791 1,403,992 1,436,095 1,475,044 1,611,102 1,729,283 1,808,049 1,837,902 1,844,186 Urban 377,272 396,475 421,151 448,478 478,804 512,416 673,487 825,032 986,930 1,146,052 1,310,071 Rural 982,088 963,895 957,640 955,514 957,292 962,627 937,615 904,250 821,119 691,850 534,115 15-49 Years (Female) Rwanda 3,435,348 3,536,257 3,634,564 3,730,625 3,825,290 3,919,151 4,367,550 4,758,862 5,185,448 5,671,963 6,146,003 Urban 1,039,344 1,156,194 1,242,116 1,330,245 1,420,726 1,513,667 2,010,923 2,481,906 3,051,682 3,754,166 4,565,955 Rural 2,396,004 2,380,063 2,392,447 2,400,380 2,404,564 2,405,484 2,356,626 2,276,956 2,133,767 1,917,797 1,580,048 Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
Table 8. 8. Evolution of the size of selected population age groups of children and youth by place of residence, 2022-2052 -
Medium scenario
Area of
residence
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
2052
0-17 Years
Rwanda
5,871,423
5,918,734
5,969,147
6,028,179
6,098,101
6,177,334
6,598,896
7,064,897
7,589,427
7,960,234
8,177,582
Urban
1,500,663
1,591,356
1,684,242
1,781,215
1,883,653
1,991,740
2,583,412
3,173,148
3,923,939
4,736,932
5,595,803
Rural
4,370,757
4,327,379
4,284,905
4,246,963
4,214,448
4,185,594
4,015,483
3,891,750
3,665,488
3,223,302
2,581,779
14-35 Years
Rwanda
5,116,115
5,232,795
5,347,176
5,464,119
5,587,441
5,718,530
6,408,547
6,988,129
7,422,734
7,947,857
8,483,117
Urban
1,624,894
1,741,538
1,861,331
1,985,591
2,115,389
2,251,300
3,002,972
3,705,280
4,427,379
5,321,874
6,359,471
Rural
3,491,219
3,491,257
3,485,844
3,478,528
3,472,052
3,467,231
3,405,574
3,282,850
2,995,355
2,625,983
2,123,645
15-24 Years
Rwanda
2,675,856
2,764,723
2,845,637
2,918,074
2,982,263
3,038,586
3,218,038
3,363,913
3,531,317
3,865,517
4,182,262
Urban
782,682
850,805
919,353
987,806
1,054,958
1,119,901
1,411,255
1,680,310
1,996,362
2,479,546
3,035,728
Rural
1,893,171
1,913,918
1,926,284
1,930,269
1,927,305
1,918,685
1,806,783
1,683,602
1,534,955
1,385,971
1,146,533
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
Table 8. 9. Evolution of the size of legal categories by place of residence, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario
Area of
residence 2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
2052
14 Years and above
Rwanda
8,571,430
8,812,603
9,054,575
9,301,727
9,556,974
9,820,728
11,183,716
12,530,819
14,023,512
15,651,266
17,373,457
Urban
2,489,691
2,685,709
2,888,551
3,099,713
3,320,061
3,549,889
4,824,420
6,117,931
7,736,855
9,760,246
12,256,407
Rural
6,081,739
6,126,894
6,166,024
6,202,014
6,236,913
6,270,838
6,359,297
6,412,888
6,286,656
5,891,020
5,117,050
16 Years and above
Rwanda
7,954,492
8,201,784
8,445,442
8,686,736
8,928,343
9,174,652
10,505,177
11,836,539
13,248,114
14,811,296
16,484,686
Urban
2,338,132
2,527,655
2,723,055
2,924,673
3,132,951
3,349,087
4,567,637
5,815,851
7,346,668
9,271,418
11,658,642
Rural
5,616,361
5,674,129
5,722,387
5,762,064
5,795,392
5,825,565
5,937,539
6,020,689
5,901,447
5,539,878
4,826,045
18 Years and above
Rwanda
7,335,312
7,580,400
7,829,414
8,076,787
8,320,044
8,560,470
9,824,168
11,161,668
12,501,203
13,996,406
15,612,839
Urban
2,177,293
2,357,697
2,546,279
2,741,426
2,941,987
3,147,957
4,297,751
5,509,159
6,956,500
8,781,967
11,057,492
Rural
5,158,020
5,222,702
5,283,135
5,335,360
5,378,057
5,412,513
5,526,417
5,652,509
5,544,703
5,214,439
4,555,347
21 Years and above
Rwanda
6,499,159
6,698,403
6,915,998
7,149,932
7,394,699
7,642,670
8,845,968
10,147,984
11,445,772
12,824,799
14,345,570
Urban
1,940,586
2,095,066
2,260,945
2,438,336
2,626,057
2,821,641
3,881,991
5,017,760
6,374,757
8,045,470
10,152,309
Rural
4,558,576
4,603,337
4,655,053
4,711,597
4,768,642
4,821,028
4,963,977
5,130,224
5,071,015
4,779,329
4,193,262
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
63
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census
Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
CHAPTER 9: PROJECTIONS OF THE PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS
This chapter presents the evolution of the number and mean size of private households between 2022 and 2052 as
well as the evolution of the annual number of newly created private households between 2023 and 2052. The findings
reported here are based on the medium projection scenario.
9.1.
Evolution of the number and mean size of private households
Table 9.1 presents the evolution of the number and
mean size of the private households between 2022
and 2052 based on the medium projection scenario.
It shows that, at the national level, the number of
private households is likely to double its current size
over the projection period, increasing from 3.3 million
in 2022 to 7.9 million in 2052. However, the mean size
of the households is expected not to vary a lot,
decreasing from 4.0 to 3.0 persons per household.
The evolution of the number of households is
expected to vary substantially according to the place
of residence, while the evolution of the mean size is
expected to be similar in both areas.
The number of urban households is expected to
increase six fold, from 960 thousands in 2022 to 5.7
million in 2052. The mean size of the households is
expected to decrease from 3.8 members per
household to 2.9 in the same period. In rural areas,
the number of households is expected to increase
from 2.3 million in 2022 to 2.6 million in 2040, and
then start decreasing up to 2.1 million in 2052. The
difference between the change in the expected
number of households in urban and rural areas is
attributed to the assumed fast growth rate in the
urban population. The expected changes in the
number of households by place of residence is
summarised in Figure 9.1.
Table 9. 1. Evolution of the number and size of private households and newly created private households by area of residence,
2022-2052 - Medium scenario
Projection Year
Total Population
Mean size
Total Households
Newly created Households
Rwanda
2022
13,206,731
4.0
3,277,104
2023 13,499,134 4.0 3,374,784 97,679 2024 13,798,561 4.0 3,484,485 109,702 2025 14,104,965 3.9 3,589,050 104,565 2026 14,418,145 3.9 3,706,464 117,414 2027 14,737,803 3.9 3,818,084 111,620 2028 15,063,640 3.8 3,943,361 125,278 2029 15,395,339 3.8 4,062,095 118,733 2030 15,732,629 3.8 4,184,210 122,115 2031 16,075,281 3.7 4,321,312 137,102 2032 16,423,064 3.7 4,450,695 129,383 2033 16,775,708 3.7 4,596,084 145,390 2034 17,132,899 3.6 4,732,845 136,761 2035 17,494,219 3.6 4,886,653 153,808 2036 17,858,979 3.6 5,030,698 144,045 2037 18,226,565 3.5 5,178,001 147,303 2038 18,596,391 3.5 5,343,791 165,789 2039 18,968,311 3.5 5,498,061 154,271 2040 19,341,762 3.4 5,672,071 174,010 2041 19,716,059 3.4 5,833,154 161,083 2042 20,090,630 3.3 6,015,159 182,005 2043 20,465,139 3.3 6,182,821 167,663 2044 20,839,343 3.3 6,372,888 190,066 2045 21,212,882 3.2 6,547,186 174,298 2046 21,585,415 3.2 6,724,428 177,243 2047 21,956,640 3.2 6,926,385 201,957 2048 22,326,433 3.1 7,110,329 183,944 2049 22,694,774 3.1 7,320,895 210,566 2050 23,061,561 3.1 7,511,909 191,014 2051 23,426,776 3.0 7,731,609 219,700 2052 23,790,420 3.0 7,930,140 198,531