RPHC5%20Thematic%20Report_Population%20Projection.pdf

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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 healthy, well educated, and highly skilled labor force that is gainfully employed as articulated in the Vision 2050. 4. The decline in fertility and improvements in adult and old age survivorship imply that the future dependency ratio is expected to be sensitive to the decreasing number of children and increasing number of elderly people in the population. Consequently, there is great need to put in place appropriate strategies towards provision of social support, health care and living arrangements of the elderly population but also retiremeny planning.
5. All over the world, it is generally agreed that population projections should always be treated as provisional – given that the assumptions used might not materialize throughout the projection period. It is, therefore, recommended that regular review of the projections be undertaken when new data becomes available.

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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 REFERENCES

  1. 7 Years Government Programme: National Strategy for Transformation (NST1) 2017 – 2024
  2. Binagwaho, A., Ngabo, F., Mugeni, C., Karema, C., Gatera, M., Nutt, C. T. and Nyemazi, J. P. (2013). Discrepant estimates of key indicators for Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5: the public sector's experience in Rwanda. The Lancet, 381, S16
  3. May, J.F. and Kamurase, A. (2009). Demographic growth and development prospects in Rwanda: Implications for the World Bank
  4. Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (2013). Shaping our development. Economic development and poverty reduction strategy 2013-2018. Kigali: Republic of Rwanda. http://www.minecofin.gov.rw/fileadmin/General/EDPRS_2/EDPRS_2_FINAL1.pdf
  5. Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (2000). Rwanda Vision 2020. Kigali: Republic of Rwanda. http://www.minecofin.gov.rw/fileadmin/General/Vision_2020/Vision-2020.pdf
  6. National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR) [Rwanda], Ministry of Health (MOH) [Rwanda], and ICF International. (2012). Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey 2010. Calverton, Maryland, USA: NISR, MOH, and ICF International
  7. National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (2007). Millennium Development Goals: Towards sustainable social and economic growth, Kigali: National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda
  8. O’Neill, B., Balk, D., Brickman, M. and Ezra, M. (2001). A guide to global population projections. Demographic Research, 4(8):203-288
  9. Population Reference Bureau (2022). 2022 World Population Data Sheet. Washington DC: Population Reference Bureau. http://www.prb.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/2022-World- Population-Data-Sheet-Booklet.pdf
  10. Republic of Rwanda. 2020. Vision 2050
  11. Singh, S. and Darroch, J. E., Ashford, L. S. and Vlassoff, M. (2009). Adding it up: The costs and benefits of investing in family planning and maternal and newborn health, New York: UNFPA and Guttmacher Institute
  12. Stover, J. and Kirmeyer, S. (2005). Demproj. Version 4: A computer program for making population projections. Spectrum System of Policy Models, Future Groups in collaboration with Research Triangle Institute and Centre for Development and Population Activities. http://futuresgroup.com/resources/software_models/spectrum
  13. United Nations. (1982). Model Life Tables for Developing Countries. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Studies, No. 77. New York: United Nations
  14. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. 2017. Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses, Revision 3.

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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 ST/ESA/STAT/SER.M/67/Rev.3. New York, New York. http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic- social/Standards-and Methods/files/Principles_Recommendations/Population-and-Housing- Censuses/Series_M67rev3-E.pdf 15. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections, Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP.250. New York: United Nations. http://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/files/d ocuments/2020/Jan/un_2017_world_population_prospects-2017_revision_databooklet.pdf
16. UNDP (2008). Rwanda: Assessment of development results: Evaluation of UNDP contributions. United Nations Development Programme

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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 ANNEXES Annex A: Census questionnaires

This annex provides the key pages of the Census questionnaires. The full questionnaires including all cover sheets can be obtained from the NISR.

As mentioned above, two different types of questionnaires were administered, one for private households and one for institutional households. The questionnaire for private households contained a person record, a household record and a mortality record. The questionnaire for institutional households contained only a person record.

A. Private Household Questionnaire

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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 B. Institutional Household Questionnaire

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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census - Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Annex B: Supplementary tables Annex Table 1. Projection of the total population by single age, 2023-2052 - High projection scenario Single age 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female 0 362,250 183,848 178,402 369,914 187,740 182,173 377,781 191,736 186,045 385,734 195,776 189,959 393,660 199,801 193,859 1 341,080 170,944 170,136 360,128 182,622 177,506 367,816 186,527 181,289 375,709 190,535 185,173 383,691 194,590 189,101 2 340,210 170,478 169,732 340,299 170,526 169,773 359,329 182,188 177,140 367,026 186,097 180,929 374,930 190,111 184,819 3 339,701 170,195 169,506 339,741 170,216 169,525 339,844 170,271 169,573 358,863 181,924 176,939 366,566 185,835 180,731 4 339,316 169,980 169,336 339,341 169,993 169,348 339,391 170,018 169,373 339,505 170,079 169,426 358,516 181,725 176,791 5 338,866 169,721 169,145 338,888 169,732 169,155 338,924 169,751 169,173 338,985 169,782 169,203 339,109 169,848 169,261 6 342,418 171,401 171,016 338,599 169,568 169,030 338,626 169,583 169,044 338,668 169,605 169,064 338,736 169,639 169,097 7 343,015 171,679 171,336 342,310 171,336 170,974 338,497 169,506 168,991 338,529 169,523 169,006 338,576 169,547 169,029 8 341,168 170,746 170,422 342,960 171,647 171,314 342,258 171,305 170,953 338,448 169,477 168,971 338,483 169,496 168,988 9 336,038 168,172 167,865 340,914 170,611 170,303 342,708 171,512 171,196 342,010 171,172 170,838 338,207 169,348 168,859 10 328,389 164,337 164,052 335,845 168,058 167,787 340,723 170,497 170,225 342,521 171,401 171,120 341,829 171,064 170,765 11 319,163 159,714 159,449 328,193 164,219 163,973 335,649 167,941 167,708 340,529 170,381 170,148 342,331 171,286 171,045 12 310,577 155,393 155,184 318,968 159,597 159,371 327,997 164,102 163,895 335,454 167,823 167,630 340,336 170,264 170,072 13 305,158 152,623 152,536 310,385 155,279 155,107 318,775 159,482 159,293 327,804 163,986 163,818 335,261 167,707 167,554 14 304,356 152,115 152,240 304,965 152,508 152,458 310,194 155,164 155,029 318,583 159,367 159,216 327,611 163,870 163,741 15 306,458 153,016 153,442 304,153 151,995 152,158 304,767 152,389 152,377 309,996 155,046 154,950 318,386 159,248 159,138 16 310,038 154,681 155,356 306,233 152,881 153,352 303,934 151,863 152,071 304,553 152,261 152,293 309,785 154,918 154,867 17 311,341 155,187 156,154 309,777 154,524 155,254 305,982 152,728 153,253 303,691 151,715 151,976 304,315 152,114 152,201 18 307,266 152,862 154,404 311,039 155,003 156,036 309,484 154,343 155,140 305,698 152,554 153,145 303,416 151,544 151,872 19 295,746 146,633 149,113 306,934 152,659 154,276 310,711 154,800 155,911 309,165 154,146 155,019 305,391 152,362 153,029 20 278,973 137,671 141,303 295,408 146,426 148,981 306,591 152,448 154,144 310,371 154,591 155,781 308,835 153,941 154,894 21 260,466 127,764 132,702 278,644 137,472 141,172 295,066 146,219 148,847 306,245 152,236 154,009 310,029 154,380 155,649 22 243,819 118,883 124,937 260,145 127,574 132,572 278,308 137,271 141,037 294,719 146,009 148,710 305,892 152,022 153,871 23 229,992 111,690 118,301 243,509 118,701 124,807 259,821 127,383 132,438 277,969 137,070 140,899 294,368 145,799 148,569 24 220,590 107,097 113,492 229,689 111,516 118,173 243,195 118,520 124,675 259,494 127,192 132,302 277,628 136,869 140,759 25 214,642 104,508 110,134 220,285 106,923 113,362 229,379 111,339 118,040 242,875 118,335 124,540 259,161 126,998 132,163 26 209,333 102,346 106,987 214,335 104,333 110,002 219,978 106,748 113,229 229,067 111,160 117,906 242,552 118,150 124,402 27 203,658 99,923 103,734 209,031 102,176 106,854 214,033 104,164 109,869 219,675 106,579 113,096 228,759 110,987 117,772 28 199,292 98,018 101,274 203,364 99,761 103,603 208,736 102,014 106,723 213,739 104,002 109,737 219,381 106,416 112,965 29 196,270 96,561 99,708 199,001 97,860 101,141 203,074 99,604 103,471 208,446 101,856 106,591 213,450 103,844 109,605 30 194,239 95,436 98,803 195,971 96,400 99,571 198,705 97,700 101,006 202,780 99,444 103,336 208,151 101,696 106,456 31 192,867 94,592 98,275 193,929 95,269 98,660 195,665 96,235 99,431 198,402 97,535 100,867 202,478 99,280 103,198 32 191,583 93,846 97,737 192,549 94,422 98,127 193,617 95,101 98,516 195,358 96,069 99,289 198,098 97,371 100,727 33 189,916 92,958 96,958 191,258 93,673 97,585 192,230 94,252 97,978 193,304 94,933 98,370 195,049 95,903 99,146 34 187,486 91,771 95,715 189,581 92,780 96,801 190,929 93,498 97,431 191,906 94,079 97,827 192,986 94,763 98,222 35 184,386 90,299 94,087 187,134 91,585 95,550 189,233 92,595 96,638 190,586 93,315 97,270 191,569 93,900 97,670 36 181,031 88,702 92,330 184,017 90,103 93,914 186,768 91,390 95,378 188,870 92,402 96,468 190,229 93,125 97,104 37 177,555 86,987 90,568 180,651 88,499 92,152 183,639 89,902 93,737 186,392 91,189 95,203 188,499 92,204 96,295 38 173,615 84,961 88,653 177,163 86,778 90,385 180,261 88,292 91,970 183,251 89,695 93,556 186,007 90,984 95,024 39 169,137 82,561 86,576 173,208 84,745 88,464 176,757 86,561 90,196 179,857 88,075 91,782 182,849 89,479 93,370 40 164,065 79,779 84,286 168,708 82,331 86,376 172,778 84,513 88,264 176,327 86,329 89,997 179,428 87,844 91,585

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