64
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Projection Year Total Population Mean size Total Households Newly created Households Urban 2022 3,677,954 3.8 960,301
2023 3,949,053 3.8 1,039,224 78,923 2024 4,230,522 3.8 1,122,154 82,930 2025 4,522,641 3.7 1,209,262 87,108 2026 4,825,639 3.7 1,300,711 91,449 2027 5,139,697 3.7 1,400,462 99,751 2028 5,464,979 3.6 1,501,368 100,905 2029 5,801,626 3.6 1,607,099 105,731 2030 6,149,779 3.6 1,717,815 110,717 2031 6,509,582 3.6 1,833,685 115,870 2032 6,881,164 3.5 1,954,876 121,191 2033 7,211,624 3.5 2,066,368 111,492 2034 7,556,621 3.5 2,183,995 117,627 2035 7,916,547 3.4 2,308,031 124,037 2036 8,291,677 3.4 2,438,729 130,697 2037 8,682,306 3.4 2,576,352 137,623 2038 9,088,737 3.3 2,729,350 152,999 2039 9,511,478 3.3 2,882,266 152,916 2040 9,950,843 3.3 3,043,071 160,805 2041 10,407,071 3.2 3,212,059 168,988 2042 10,880,440 3.2 3,389,545 177,486 2043 11,371,352 3.2 3,575,897 186,352 2044 11,880,259 3.2 3,771,511 195,614 2045 12,407,552 3.1 3,976,779 205,269 2046 12,953,625 3.1 4,192,112 215,332 2047 13,518,899 3.1 4,417,941 225,829 2048 14,103,902 3.0 4,670,166 252,225 2049 14,709,243 3.0 4,919,479 249,313 2050 15,335,493 3.0 5,180,910 261,431 2051 15,983,285 2.9 5,455,046 274,136 2052 16,653,294 2.9 5,742,515 287,469
Rural Projection Year Total Population Mean size Total Households Newly created Households 2022 9,528,777 4.1 2,316,803
2023 9,550,081 4.1 2,335,559 18,756 2024 9,568,039 4.1 2,362,331 26,772 2025 9,582,324 4.0 2,379,787 17,457 2026 9,592,506 4.0 2,405,753 25,965 2027 9,598,106 4.0 2,417,621 11,869 2028 9,598,661 3.9 2,441,993 24,372 2029 9,593,713 3.9 2,454,996 13,003 2030 9,582,850 3.9 2,466,394 11,398 2031 9,565,699 3.8 2,487,627 21,233 2032 9,541,900 3.8 2,495,819 8,192 2033 9,564,084 3.8 2,529,716 33,898 2034 9,576,278 3.8 2,548,851 19,134 2035 9,577,672 3.7 2,578,622 29,772 2036 9,567,302 3.7 2,591,970 13,348 2037 9,544,259 3.7 2,601,649 9,680 2038 9,507,654 3.6 2,614,440 12,791 2039 9,456,833 3.6 2,615,795 1,355 2040 9,390,919 3.6 2,629,000 13,205 2041 9,308,988 3.6 2,621,095 -7,905 2042 9,210,190 3.5 2,625,614 4,519 2043 9,093,787 3.5 2,606,925 -18,689 2044 8,959,084 3.4 2,601,377 -5,548
65
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Rural Projection Year Total Population Mean size Total Households Newly created Households 2045 8,805,330 3.4 2,570,406 -30,971 2046 8,631,790 3.4 2,532,317 -38,090 2047 8,437,741 3.4 2,508,444 -23,873 2048 8,222,531 3.4 2,440,163 -68,281 2049 7,985,531 3.3 2,401,416 -38,747 2050 7,726,068 3.3 2,330,999 -70,416 2051 7,443,491 3.3 2,276,563 -54,436 2052 7,137,126 3.3 2,187,625 -88,938 Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
Figure 9. 1. Evolution of private households by place of residence, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
9.2.
Newly created private households
Figure 9.2 presents the evolution of newly created private households between 2023 and 2052. It shows that this
number is expected to continuously increase over time: from around 98,000 in 2023 up to about 198,000 in 2052. The
evolution of newly created private households varies by place of residence. In urban areas, the annual number of
newly created private households is expected to increase rapidly (from about 79,000 to 287,500 between 2023 and
2052), while in rural areas, the annual number of such households is expected to fluctuate, from around 19,000 in
2023 to minus 89,000 in 2052.On average, there Is a need to construct annually 155,000 new households at national
level and 159,000 new households In urban areas to accommodate more of the population in urban areas.
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
Number of Private Households
Projection Year
Rwanda
Urban
Rural
66
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Figure 9. 2. Evolution of newly created private households by place of residence, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
-150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 Number of Newly Created Households Projection Year Rwanda Urban Rural
67
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 CHAPTER 10: SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS This chapter presents a summary of the population projections for Rwanda based on the 2022 Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census (RPHC5). The summary highlights the rationale, methodology, assumptions for the projections; it then documents projections of the different facets of the population. It concludes by offering key recommendations thought to be relevant to future Rwandan censuses.
10.1. Summary
10.1.1. Rationale
Population projections give an indication of what the
future population would be if certain likely rates of
fertility, mortality and migration were to apply. The
projected size, composition, and distribution of the
population at various geographic units and points in
time form a rational basis to gauge the primary needs
of the Rwandan population.
Information from population projections is very
critical to all planners of development programmes.
Rwanda is not an exception in this regard,
particularly after the demographic and social
changes the country has experienced in the nearly
three decades following the 1994 genocide against
the Tutsi. Consequently, Rwanda has long formulated
and implemented explicit policies that have a direct
influence on the population growth. This is still the
case nowadays with many policies dealing with
different sectors related to population and
development issues. The design, implementation,
monitoring and evaluation of such policies and
programmes require up-to-date and reliable data.
The objective of the present census report on
population projections was to contribute to provision
of such data.
10.1.2. Methodology
The standard cohort component method was applied
in generating the Rwandan population projections
based on the 2022 Fifth Population and Housing
Census data. The requisite input information about
the components of population change (fertility,
mortality and migration) were taken into account
during the projections. The projections were
generated based on the high, medium and low
scenarios that combine assumptions on the future
trends in fertility, mortality and migration, as well as
considering the pace of current and planned future
urbanization and potential size of private households
for the next 30 years. The changes in the projections
are expected to be more aligned to the medium
scenario since it is the most likely one to shape the
future course of population. The high scenario
assumes a full achievement of all planned
interventions while the low scenario assumes a slow
response to all existing and future interventions.
The assumptions and scenarios were formulated
based on an analysis of: (i) past policies and
programmes that have already influenced or likely to
influence population growth in the near future; (ii)
the trends of selected key indicators; and (iii) the
targets in the current policies and programmes,
especially the Vision 2050 aimed at transforming
Rwanda into an upper-middle income country by
2035, and a high income country by 2050.
The current decline in fertility is expected to continue
over time with the total fertility rate decreasing from
3.6 children per woman to 2.6 in 2052 (medium
scenario). Mortality is also expected to decrease,
irrespective of the projection scenario. According to
the medium scenario, life expectancy at birth is likely
to increase from 69.6 years to 78.0 years for both
sexes while infant mortality rate is likely to decrease
from 29 per 1,000 live births in 2022 to 7 per 1,000 live
births in 2052.
10.1.3. Population Projections
Based on the medium projection scenario, the main
findings follow here below.
68
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 The Rwandan population is expected to increase in the next 30 years: from 13.2 million in 2022 to 23.8 million by 2052. A direct consequence of this anticipated increase in the population is the unprecedented increase in population density: from 501 inhabitants per square kilometre in 2022 to 903 inhabitants per square kilometre by 2052.
The projected population is expected to be less young in the future with the median age increasing from 21 years in 2022 to 27 in 2052. Consequently, the percentage of adults and old people in the population is expected to increase over time, while the share of children is expected to decrease proportionately during the projection period.
The urbanization rate is expected to increase from 27.9% in 2022 to 70.0% in 2052. This rapid growth will translate the current size of the urban population by a factor of about 4.5 times in the next 30 years; i.e. from 3.7 million in 2022 to at least 16.65 million by 2052. The urban population is expected to be 16.65 million in 2052 as compared to 3.7 million in 2022, equivalent to an increase of about 352.8%. Just like the total population, the urban population is expected to be less young with a median age increasing from 22 years to 27 years between 2022 and 2052. On the other hand, the rural population is expected to be 7.1 million in 2052 as compared to 9.5 million in 2022, equivalent to a decrease of about 26%. The rural population is expected to also be less young with a median age increasing from 20 years to 30 years between 2022 and 2052.
The sizes of specific population sub-groups such as the school-age population, the working-age population, the health interventions group, the elderly, the children and youth, and the legal age- groups categories are expected to increase substantially over the next 30 years, especially in urban areas. For instance, at the national level, the school-age population in the former system is expected to increase from 5.1 million to 7.2 million between 2022 and 2052, equivalent to an increase of 40%. Similarly, the current system is expected to experience an increase from 4.8 million to 6.8 million (40%) over the same period with marked differences by place of residence.
The number of private households is expected to increase from 3.3 million to 7.9 million between 2022 and 2052. It is expected to increase six fold in urban areas with hardly any change in rural areas. The mean size of the households is expected to vary slightly, decreasing from 4.0 members per household in 2022 to 3.0 in 2052 with little variation between urban and rural areas. The annual number of newly created households is expected to increase continuously over time: from around 98,000 in 2023 up to about 198,000 in 2052.
10.2. Recommendations
Based on the potential impact of the projected
population on different spheres of development, a
few recommendations have emerged as articulated
below.
1.
A
significant
threat
to
population
and
development in Rwanda is the increasing land
pressure.
The country needs to put in place explicit
policies to deal with the unavoidable and
foreseeable population overcrowding aside from
the current policies aimed at reducing the
population growth.
2.
The anticipated growth of urban population will
exacerbate pressure on land, settlements,
physical infrastructure and resources.
This will inevitably imply revisiting urban
planning coupled with the requisite resources
for future development of new settlements
including roads, transport networks, water and
electricity supply, health and educational
facilities and other essential community
facilities.
The size and growth rate of future youth and working-age populations will pose challenges in terms of generating sustainable employment and livelihood opportunities, especially in urban areas of Rwanda – this calls for essential investments in human capital development and economic reforms so that the country has a