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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census
Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
CHAPTER 8: PROJECTIONS OF SPECIFIC INTERVENTIONS TARGET GROUPS
This chapter presents the findings on the following specific interventions target groups: school-age population,
working-age population, elderly, children, youth, women in the reproductive age groups and legal majority age-
groups.
All the projections are based on the medium (the most likely) scenario. The evolution of the sizes of these age groups
is important when assessing their specific needs and to better plan, implement, monitor and evaluate the relevant
interventions.
8.1.
School-age population
There has been a change in the official school-age
groups since 2021: from 3-6 years to 3-5 years for pre-
school; from 7-12 years to 6-11 years for primary level;
and from 13-18 years to 12-17 years for secondary
level. At the national level, the school-age population
in the former system is expected to increase from 5.1
million to 7.2 million between 2022 and 2052,
equivalent to a percentage increase of 40% over the
next thirty years (Table 8.1, Table 8.2, and Table 8.3).
Similarly, the current system is expected to
experience an increase from 4.8 million to 6.8 million
(40%) over the same period.
The expected change in the school-age population
displays marked differences by place of residence.
While the expected increase in the school-age
population will be 279% in urban areas between 2022
and 2052. The opposite is bound to happen in rural
areas with an expected decrease of 40% between
2022 and 2052. The expected increase in urban areas
with the corresponding decrease in rural areas in the
school-age population can be attributed to the
expected rapid growth in the population in urban
area from 27.9% in 2022 to 70% in 2052. This suggests
the need for huge investments in physical
infrastructure and human resources in urban areas
over the next 30 years, especially if the “Education for
all” policy is to be achieved during the projection
period.
Table 8. 1. Evolution of the school-age population by level of education and area of residence, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario Projection Year Rwanda 3-5 years 3-6 years 6-11 years 7-12 years 12-17 years 13-18 years 2022 1,022,693 1,365,821 1,979,360 1,941,584 1,846,023 1,836,743 2023 1,017,903 1,360,324 2,010,206 1,978,364 1,847,944 1,844,634 2024 1,018,036 1,356,647 2,028,867 2,009,232 1,854,529 1,846,603 2025 1,018,328 1,356,982 2,038,563 2,027,922 1,871,744 1,853,235 2026 1,036,783 1,375,502 2,040,890 2,037,651 1,900,240 1,870,491 2027 1,061,982 1,400,804 2,038,467 2,040,019 1,935,933 1,899,022 2028 1,093,979 1,433,003 2,034,466 2,037,638 1,972,829 1,934,744 2029 1,114,842 1,472,045 2,049,351 2,033,680 2,003,834 1,971,669 2030 1,135,836 1,499,890 2,074,885 2,048,604 2,022,699 2,002,707 2031 1,156,674 1,527,739 2,107,386 2,074,177 2,032,632 2,021,613 2032 1,177,168 1,555,289 2,146,866 2,106,707 2,035,224 2,031,593 2033 1,197,228 1,582,335 2,193,218 2,146,217 2,033,079 2,034,237 2034 1,216,812 1,608,776 2,246,216 2,192,599 2,029,362 2,032,147 2035 1,235,863 1,634,542 2,287,767 2,245,619 2,044,489 2,028,483 2036 1,254,254 1,659,482 2,328,998 2,287,179 2,070,222 2,043,639 2037 1,271,840 1,683,435 2,369,571 2,328,420 2,102,887 2,069,397 2038 1,288,415 1,706,172 2,409,237 2,369,003 2,142,506 2,102,085 2039 1,303,748 1,727,397 2,447,799 2,408,680 2,188,968 2,141,725 2040 1,317,638 1,746,851 2,485,063 2,447,254 2,242,046 2,188,206 2041 1,329,986 1,764,353 2,520,769 2,484,531 2,283,693 2,241,301
56
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Projection Year Rwanda 3-5 years 3-6 years 6-11 years 7-12 years 12-17 years 13-18 years 2042 1,341,194 1,780,212 2,554,579 2,520,251 2,325,026 2,282,971 2043 1,351,211 1,794,352 2,586,146 2,554,076 2,365,707 2,324,330 2044 1,359,791 1,806,547 2,615,167 2,585,658 2,405,490 2,365,038 2045 1,366,374 1,816,643 2,641,812 2,614,697 2,444,176 2,404,849 2046 1,371,140 1,824,342 2,665,828 2,641,359 2,481,572 2,443,566 2047 1,374,596 1,829,977 2,686,872 2,665,395 2,517,418 2,480,994 2048 1,377,100 1,834,000 2,704,783 2,686,458 2,551,375 2,516,873 2049 1,378,832 1,836,850 2,719,691 2,704,390 2,583,097 2,550,865 2050 1,379,893 1,838,781 2,731,856 2,719,320 2,612,282 2,582,623 2051 1,380,622 1,840,078 2,741,077 2,731,507 2,639,096 2,611,845 2052 1,381,366 1,841,168 2,747,713 2,740,751 2,663,290 2,638,700 % Increase (2022-2052) 35.1 34.8 38.8 41.2 44.3 43.7 Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR) Table 8. 2. Evolution of the school-age population by level of education (Urban), 2022-2052 - Medium scenario Projection Year Urban 3-5 years 3-6 years 6-11 years 7-12 years 12-17 years 13-18 years 2022 136,968 361,784 487,584 471,326 453,531 459,780 2023 288,207 379,459 521,072 505,570 478,191 486,483 2024 302,262 397,002 552,166 539,231 503,681 511,134 2025 316,366 415,631 581,286 570,286 532,336 537,054 2026 336,542 440,354 608,638 599,364 564,994 566,435 2027 359,598 467,989 634,801 626,683 600,985 600,089 2028 385,384 498,411 660,682 652,886 638,760 637,261 2029 408,243 532,174 693,170 678,716 675,890 676,173 2030 431,789 563,062 729,994 711,435 709,884 714,288 2031 455,922 594,816 770,326 748,658 741,248 749,000 2032 480,569 627,328 814,474 789,508 770,165 780,868 2033 501,915 655,553 855,444 827,190 790,996 803,750 2034 523,924 684,683 900,766 869,152 811,862 825,447 2035 546,604 714,731 943,652 915,621 840,869 847,201 2036 569,925 745,671 988,318 959,615 875,508 877,347 2037 593,839 777,455 1,034,703 1,005,468 914,555 913,300 2038 618,223 809,950 1,082,739 1,053,103 958,936 954,338 2039 642,947 842,997 1,132,341 1,102,415 1,008,554 1,000,453 2040 667,876 876,429 1,183,427 1,153,334 1,063,645 1,051,929 2041 692,912 910,100 1,235,865 1,205,770 1,115,389 1,108,996 2042 718,220 944,117 1,289,468 1,259,597 1,169,181 1,162,586 2043 743,632 978,253 1,343,845 1,314,453 1,224,815 1,218,190 2044 769,030 1,012,406 1,398,927 1,370,260 1,282,227 1,275,677 2045 794,051 1,046,426 1,454,763 1,426,828 1,341,351 1,334,957 2046 818,732 1,080,082 1,511,169 1,484,215 1,402,109 1,395,955 2047 843,315 1,113,490 1,567,883 1,542,234 1,464,372 1,458,587 2048 867,927 1,146,790 1,624,640 1,600,538 1,527,873 1,522,638 2049 892,670 1,180,231 1,681,458 1,658,978 1,592,427 1,587,944 2050 917,583 1,213,932 1,738,398 1,717,531 1,657,796 1,654,257 2051 942,870 1,248,056 1,795,249 1,776,275 1,724,020 1,721,327 2052 968,765 1,282,878 1,852,142 1,834,992 1,790,869 1,789,190 % Increase (2022-2052) 607.3 254.6 279.9 289.3 294.9 289.1 Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census
Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
Table 8. 3. Evolution of the school-age population by level of education (Rural), 2022-2052 - Medium scenario
Projection Year
Rural
3-5 years
3-6 years
6-11 years
7-12 years
12-17 years
13-18 years
2022
885,725
1,004,037
1,491,776
1,470,258
1,392,491
1,376,962
2023
729,695
980,864
1,489,134
1,472,795
1,369,753
1,358,150
2024
715,773
959,644
1,476,701
1,470,000
1,350,848
1,335,469
2025
701,962
941,351
1,457,277
1,457,636
1,339,408
1,316,181
2026
700,241
935,148
1,432,252
1,438,287
1,335,246
1,304,056
2027
702,384
932,815
1,403,666
1,413,336
1,334,948
1,298,933
2028
708,595
934,592
1,373,784
1,384,751
1,334,069
1,297,483
2029
706,599
939,871
1,356,181
1,354,963
1,327,944
1,295,496
2030
704,048
936,828
1,344,891
1,337,169
1,312,815
1,288,419
2031
700,752
932,923
1,337,060
1,325,518
1,291,384
1,272,613
2032
696,599
927,960
1,332,392
1,317,199
1,265,059
1,250,725
2033
695,313
926,781
1,337,774
1,319,027
1,242,084
1,230,487
2034
692,887
924,093
1,345,450
1,323,447
1,217,500
1,206,700
2035
689,259
919,811
1,344,115
1,329,998
1,203,620
1,181,282
2036
684,329
913,812
1,340,681
1,327,565
1,194,714
1,166,292
2037
678,001
905,980
1,334,868
1,322,952
1,188,332
1,156,097
2038
670,192
896,222
1,326,498
1,315,899
1,183,570
1,147,747
2039
660,801
884,400
1,315,459
1,306,265
1,180,415
1,141,272
2040
649,762
870,422
1,301,636
1,293,921
1,178,401
1,136,277
2041
637,075
854,254
1,284,905
1,278,761
1,168,304
1,132,305
2042
622,975
836,096
1,265,112
1,260,654
1,155,844
1,120,385
2043
607,579
816,099
1,242,300
1,239,623
1,140,892
1,106,140
2044
590,760
794,141
1,216,240
1,215,398
1,123,262
1,089,361
2045
572,323
770,216
1,187,049
1,187,869
1,102,826
1,069,893
2046
552,408
744,260
1,154,659
1,157,144
1,079,464
1,047,611
2047
531,280
716,487
1,118,989
1,123,161
1,053,045
1,022,407
2048
509,173
687,210
1,080,143
1,085,920
1,023,502
994,235
2049
486,162
656,619
1,038,233
1,045,412
990,670
962,921
2050
462,310
624,849
993,458
1,001,788
954,485
928,366
2051
437,753
592,022
945,828
955,231
915,077
890,518
2052
412,601
558,290
895,570
905,758
872,421
849,510
% Increase (2022-2052)
(53.4)
(44.4)
(40.0)
(38.4)
(37.3)
(38.3)
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
8.2.
Working-age population
The official working age group in Rwanda is 16-64 years. The size of this working-age population is expected to
increase from 7.4 million in 2022 to 14.8 million in 2052, corresponding to an increase of 99.6% (Table 8.4). This
increase is expected to be even higher in urban areas where the working-age population is expected to increase
threefold (376.5%) in thirthy years only. In contrast, rural areas are expected to experience a decrease of about
20.6% in 2052.