45
Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Age-group pyramid (%) of the urban population in 2052 – High scenario
Age-group pyramid (%) of the urban population in 2052 – Medium scenario
Age-group pyramid (%) of the urban population in 2052 – Low scenario
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR) 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+ Female Male 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+ Female Male 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+ Female Male
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census
Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
Table 6.3 presents further details of the changes in
age-sex structure over the projection period. The
findings in table 6.3 confirm that the age-sex
structure of the population is expected to change in
some of its aspects and is expected to remain
unchanged in others.
In terms of changes, by 2032, the sex structure of the
urban population is expected to change slightly;
females are expected to out-number males in urban
areas with their percentage in the population
increasing from 49.8% to 50.4%, under all the three
projection scenarios.
The changes in the age structure is expected to be
more profound than changes in the sex composition
of the population. The urban population is expected
to be less younger over time; the median age is
expected to increase from 22 years in 2022 to 24 years
in 2032 irrespective of the projection scenario. It will
reach 26 years (high scenario), 27 years (medium
scenario) and 28 years (low scenario) by 2052.
This trend is reflected in the increasing percentages
of the age-groups 16-64, 60+, and 65+, and the
decrease in the percentage of children aged 0-4 and
5-15. For instance, the 16-64 age group is expected to
constitute 63% of the urban population in 2032
according to the three scenarios when compared to
61% in 2022. The population’s share of the elderly
aged 60 years and above is expected to increase from
4% in 2022 to 9% in 2052, and the elderly aged 65
years and above from 3% to 6% during the projection
period (medium scenario).
Table 6. 3. Evolution of the age-sex structure of the urban population by projection scenario, 2022-2052
Age-sex
structure
Indicators
Projection Year
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
2052
High Scenario Both sexes 3,677,956 3,949,206 4,231,010 4,523,683 4,827,487 5,142,642 6,895,428 8,721,194 10,966,922 13,685,850 16,948,907 % female 49.81 51.40 51.34 51.28 51.22 51.17 50.93 50.74 50.58 50.46 50.38 Median age 22 23 23 23 23 23 24 25 25 26 26 % aged 0-4 12.9 12.7 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.7 12.6 12.3 11.9 11.2 10.6 % aged 5-14 21.38 21.16 20.95 20.74 20.49 20.2 19.34 19.46 19.62 19.53 19.11 % aged 15-64 63.14 63.45 63.68 63.87 64.04 64.23 65.11 65.05 65.02 64.87 64.85 % aged 16-64 61.0 61.3 61.6 61.8 62.0 62.2 63.1 63.3 63.2 63.0 63.0 % aged 60+ 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.8 7.0 8.2 % aged 65+ 2.62 2.68 2.73 2.8 2.85 2.89 2.99 3.18 3.48 4.36 5.42
Medium Scenario Both sexes 3,677,956 3,949,053 4,230,522 4,522,641 4,825,639 5,139,697 6,881,164 8,682,306 10,880,440 13,518,899 16,653,294 % female 49.81 51.40 51.34 51.28 51.22 51.17 50.93 50.74 50.59 50.47 50.39 Median age 22 23 23 23 23 23 24 25 26 26 27 % aged 0-4 12.85 12.71 12.61 12.56 12.56 12.6 12.34 11.95 11.37 10.6 9.84 % aged 5-14 21.38 21.16 20.96 20.74 20.5 20.21 19.32 19.3 19.26 18.96 18.32 % aged 15-64 63.13 63.45 63.69 63.89 64.08 64.29 65.32 65.51 65.75 65.82 65.98 % aged 16-64 61.0 61.3 61.6 61.9 62.1 62.3 63.4 63.7 63.9 64.0 64.1 % aged 60+ 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.9 6.0 7.4 8.8 % aged 65+ 2.62 2.68 2.74 2.8 2.86 2.9 3.02 3.24 3.62 4.62 5.86
Low Scenario Both sexes 3,677,956 3,948,900 4,230,032 4,521,596 4,823,783 5,136,736 6,866,685 8,640,720 10,788,557 13,344,389 16,349,183 % female 49.81 51.40 51.34 51.28 51.22 51.17 50.94 50.75 50.60 50.48 50.40 Median age 22 23 23 23 23 23 24 25 26 27 28 % aged 0-4 12.85 12.7 12.6 12.53 12.5 12.51 12.11 11.57 10.85 9.94 9.02 % aged 5-14 21.38 21.17 20.96 20.75 20.51 20.23 19.29 19.13 18.88 18.35 17.49 % aged 15-64 63.14 63.45 63.71 63.92 64.12 64.35 65.54 65.98 66.5 66.81 67.14 % aged 16-64 61.0 61.3 61.6 61.9 62.1 62.3 63.6 64.2 64.7 65.0 65.4 % aged 60+ 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.6 5.0 6.2 7.8 9.4 % aged 65+ 2.62 2.68 2.74 2.8 2.86 2.91 3.05 3.32 3.78 4.9 6.35 Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census
Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
6.4.
Density of the urban population
Table 6.4 presents the projected density of the urban
population by projection scenario. It reveals that the
population density in urban areas was already high
in 2022 with 1,695 inhabitants per square kilometre
and this is expected to increase substantially over
time. If the urban surface area remains unchanged
over time, the density of the urban population is
bound to be 7,813 (high scenario), 7,677 (medium
scenario) and 7,536 (low scenario) by 2052.
However, as articulated in the fourth pillar of Vision
2050, the national aspiration is that the urban surface
area is expected to increase as new settlements are
expected to be created around the existing urban
areas
to
accommodate
the
growing
urban
population. Therefore, the actual population density
in urban areas is bound to be somehow different
from the ones presented in Table 6.4, but is expected
to be still high.
Table 6. 4. Projection of the density of the urban population by projection scenario, 2022-2052
Projection Year
High Scenario
Medium Scenario
Low Scenario
Urban
Density
Urban
Density
Urban
Density
2022
3,677,954
1,695
3,677,954
1,695
3,677,954
1,695
2023
3,949,206
1,820
3,949,053
1,820
3,948,900
1,820
2024
4,231,010
1,950
4,230,522
1,950
4,230,032
1,950
2025
4,523,683
2,085
4,522,641
2,085
4,521,596
2,084
2026
4,827,487
2,225
4,825,639
2,224
4,823,783
2,224
2027
5,142,642
2,371
5,139,697
2,369
5,136,736
2,368
2028
5,469,353
2,521
5,464,979
2,519
5,460,577
2,517
2029
5,807,801
2,677
5,801,626
2,674
5,795,405
2,671
2030
6,158,172
2,839
6,149,779
2,835
6,141,314
2,831
2031
6,520,656
3,006
6,509,582
3,001
6,498,401
2,996
2032
6,895,428
3,179
6,881,164
3,172
6,866,685
3,165
2033
7,229,504
3,333
7,211,624
3,324
7,193,277
3,316
2034
7,578,684
3,493
7,556,621
3,483
7,533,666
3,473
2035
7,943,424
3,662
7,916,547
3,649
7,888,187
3,636
2036
8,324,140
3,837
8,291,677
3,822
8,257,126
3,806
2037
8,721,194
4,020
8,682,306
4,002
8,640,720
3,983
2038
9,134,966
4,211
9,088,737
4,190
9,039,207
4,167
2039
9,566,056
4,410
9,511,478
4,384
9,453,015
4,357
2040
10,014,864
4,616
9,950,843
4,587
9,882,388
4,555
2041
10,481,706
4,832
10,407,071
4,797
10,327,497
4,761
2042
10,966,922
5,055
10,880,440
5,015
10,788,557
4,973
2043
11,470,951
5,288
11,371,352
5,242
11,265,887
5,193
2044
11,994,351
5,529
11,880,259
5,476
11,759,840
5,421
2045
12,537,620
5,779
12,407,552
5,719
12,270,753
5,656
2046
13,101,269
6,039
12,953,625
5,971
12,798,821
5,900
2047
13,685,850
6,309
13,518,899
6,232
13,344,389
6,151
2048
14,292,047
6,588
14,103,902
6,501
13,907,844
6,411
2049
14,920,649
6,878
14,709,243
6,780
14,489,629
6,679
2050
15,572,420
7,178
15,335,493
7,069
15,090,142
6,956
2051
16,248,206
7,490
15,983,285
7,368
15,709,835
7,242
2052
16,948,907
7,813
16,653,294
7,677
16,349,183
7,536
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census
Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023
CHAPTER 7: PROJECTIONS OF THE RURAL POPULATION
This chapter describes the projections of the rural population between 2022 and 2052 according to the high, medium
and low projection scenarios by focussing on the size, density and age-sex structure. All the three projection
scenarios are based on the assumption that the urban population is expected to experience a steady increase from
27.9% in 2022 up to 70% by 2052. This translates to a decrease in the percentage of the projected rural population
from 72.1% to 30% between 2022 and 2052 as shown in the Table 7.1. and Figure 7.1
7.1.
Size of the projected rural population
Table 7.1 and figure 7.1 show that the projected rural population is bound to increase from 9.5 million in 2022 to: 9.6
million in 2027, then start decreasing up to 7.3 million (high scenario), to 7.1 million (medium scenario), and to 7.0
million (low scenario) in 2052. This corresponds to a decrease in the projected size of the rural population by 24.0%,
25.0% and 26.5% between 2022 and 2052, according to the high, medium and low projection scenarios respectively.
Figure 7. 1. Projected rural population (2022-2052)
Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)
1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 10,000,000 11,000,000 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 Projections year High scenario Medium scenario Low scenario