RPHC5%20Thematic%20Report_Population%20Projection.pdf

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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Figure 3. 2. Evolution of the TFR between 1978-2022

Sources: Rwanda 1978, 1991, 2002, 2012 and 2022 PHCs and Rwanda 1992, 2000, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2014-15 and 2019-20 DHSs

180 162

178 151 122 142 134 105.5 CBR 54.1 45.7

41.2

39.2 34.4 30.9 32.6 31.8 27.8 ASFR = Age-Specific Fertility Rate; TFR = Total Fertility Rate; GFR = General Fertility Rate; CBR = Crude Birth Rate Sources: Rwanda 1978, 1991, 2002, 2012 and 2022 PHCs and Rwanda 1992, 2000, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2014-15 and 2019-20 DHSs

The significant decline of fertility may be explained partly by the increase in modern contraceptive use as shown by the increase in Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (CPR) from 10% in 2005 to 45% in 2010, then to 48% in 2015 (2014-15 DHS), and then to 58% in 2020 (2019-20 DHS) [Figure 3.3].

Another contributory factor is the observed increase in net attendance rate in secondary school for girls that increased from 10% in 2005 to 21% in 2012 (EICV 2010-11), and then to 39% in 2020 (2019-20 DHS). More generally, the fertility decline resulted from the government policy of raising public awareness down to the village level for the adoption of responsible parenthood behaviours and ensuring availability of community health services at the lowest geographical level.

8.6 6.9 5.9 4 3.6 6.2 5.8 6.1 5.5 4.6 4.2 4.1 1978 1991 1992 2000 2002 2005 2007 2010 2012 2015 2020 2022 PHC DHS

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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Figure 3. 3. Trend in contraceptive prevalence

Source: RDHS 1992,2000, 2005, 2010, 2014-15, 2019-20

3.4.2. Mortality levels and trends Mortality is a key component of population change and has influence across all ages. The pattern of mortality by age usually assumes a near “U”-shape - suggesting high concentration of deaths in the very early and older ages. It is measured by a number of indicators including crude death rate (CDR), life expectancy at birth (LEB), infant mortality rate (IMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR). Life expectancy at birth is the best summary indicator to measure the level of mortality, health status and wellbeing of the population. As presented in Table 3.2, life expectancy at birth (e0) in Rwanda was 46.4 years in 1978, it increased to 53.7 years in 1991, before decreasing to 51.2 years in 2002. Thereafter, it has recorded increases: from 51.2 years to 64.5 years (about 26%) between 2002 and 2012; and from 64.5 years to 69.7 years (about 8%) between 2012 and 2022. The decline in mortality is further reflected in the substantial reduction in IMR: from 144 per 1000 live births in 1978 to about 49 in 2012, and then to 29 in 2022 (Figure 3.4). The under-five mortality has followed the same pattern of decline. The changes in IMR between 1992 and 2002 were trivial, which is explained by the influence of the 1994 genocide. Most of the decline in mortality actually took place during the last two decades.

Figure 3. 4. Trend in childhood mortality rates

Sources: Rwanda 1978, 1991, 2002, 2012 and 2022 PHCs 13 6 10 45 48 58 8 8 7 6 6 6 1992 RDHS 2000 RDHS 2005 RDHS 2010 RDHS 2014-15 RDHS 2019-20 RDHS Any modern method Any traditional method

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51.2

64.5

69.7 IMR=Infant Mortality Rate; U-5MR=Under Five Mortality Rate; e0=Life Expectancy at Birth. Sources: Rwanda 1978, 1991, 2002, 2012 and 2022 PHCs and Rwanda 1992, 2000, 2005, 2007-8, 2010, 2014-15 and 2019-20 DHSs

The increase in life expectancy at birth (Figure 3.5) is due to the improvement of the health status of the population, especially during the last two decades following several vigorous social and health care interventions aimed at reducing the leading causes of death through: improved capacity (in both health personnel and infrastructures); improvement in the public hygiene systems and universal access to health insurance by the population.

Figure 3. 5. Trend in life expectancy at birth (1978-2022) Sources: Rwanda 1978, 1991, 2002, 2012 and 2022 PHCs 3.4.3. Migration levels and trends The pattern of migration in Rwanda varies according to the type of migration, internal versus international. Regarding internal migration, majority of the population of Rwanda remains in their place of origin, since only 20% of the resident population were reported to reside in a district other than their district of birth (lifetime migrants), and 10% were reported having resided in a district different from their current district of residence (recent migrants) in the last five years preceding the census date. The percentage is even lower if one considers the change of residence at the province rather than the district level. The analysis of the origin and destination of migrants (migration flows) shows evidence that most migrants who changed their residence between provinces tend to move to neighbouring provinces. Conversely, provinces receive migrants from neighbouring provinces or countries. The City of Kigali and Eastern Province received more migrants than other provinces of the country, regardless of the type of migration considered. As for international migration, the stock is negligible as compared to the size of the whole population. Although there have been significant cross-border migration in Rwanda in the 1990s triggered by the 1994 genocide against Tutsi, this unusual phenomenon is unlikely to reoccur in the future. According to the 2022 PHC data, the foreigners represented only 1% of the resident population of Rwanda. This clearly implies that international migration has negligible impact on population change in Rwanda and, therefore, the assumption of negligible net international migration was retained for the projections at national level in the Rwandan context.

46.4 53.7 51.2 64.5 69.6 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 1978 1991 2002 2012 2022 Both sexes Male Female

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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023

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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 CHAPTER 4: PROJECTION PARAMETERS, ASSUMPTIONS AND SCENARIOS
Population projections are based on how assumptions of the different parameters are specified. Given that population growth rate has implications on all sectors of national life, population projections should integrate a systematic analysis of past trends of demographic components and derive realistic assumptions of future trajectories. Rwanda, with an average annual growth rate of 2.3%, resembles other Sub-Saharan African countries where rapid population growth constitutes a serious threat on national development.
Indeed, at this rate of growth, the population of Rwanda is expected to double in 30 years reaching more than 26 millions by 2052. Given the relatively small surface area of Rwanda (just above 26 thousands square kilometres), this rapid population growth is expected to exert tremendous demographic pressure on available resources especially agricultural land in the future. The population density would be around 1000 per square kilometer. The population projections are generated over a period of 30 years - from 2022 to 2052 in single and 5-year age-groups. 4.1. Projection parameters
The projection parameters considered here are the distribution of the resident population by sex, age and area of residence, fertility and mortality and migration. 4.1.1. Total, urban and rural population The base population is the 2022 mid-year (1st July 2022) population from the RPHC5 data disaggregated by sex, age and area of residence. It was obtained by retro-projecting the resident population enumerated by the RPHC5 that refers to 15th August 2022 using the 2012-2022 intercensal annual growth rate. Figure 4.1, Figure 4.2, and Figure 4.3 present the distribution of the base population by sex, age and area of residence (Total, Urban and Rural).
It has to be noted that the national population sex ratio of 94 males per 100 females is a reflection of the deficit of men in rural areas (92 males per 100 females) whereas that in urban areas is (101 males per 100 females). Further analysis shows that men in the adult ages are more represented in urban areas suggesting labour migration flows of men from rural to urban areas. On the other hand, there is a balance in sex ratio in the population aged 0-4 years (Table 4.1).

Figure 4. 1. Population age structure Rwanda, at mid-year (1st July) 2022

15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 + Female Male

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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Figure 4. 2. Population age structure Urban at mid-year (1st July) 2022

Figure 4. 3. Population age structure Rural at mid-year (1st July) 2022

Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)

15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 + Female Male 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80 + Female Male

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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023

Table 4. 1. Age-sex structure of the total, urban and rural population at mid-year (1st July) 2022 Age group Total Urban Rural Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female Both sexes Male Female 0-4 1,703,344 853,664 849,680 472,740 237,286 235,454 1,230,604 616,378 614,226 5-9 1,691,924 846,846 845,078 428,579 214,977 213,602 1,263,345
631,869 631,476 10-14 1,546,702 773,449 773,253 357,908 177,131 180,777 1,188,794
596,318 592,476 15-19 1,504,822 747,917 756,905 390,895 182,460 208,435 1,113,927
565,457 548,470 20-24 1,171,032 570,829 600,203 391,788 192,402 199,386 779,244
378,427 400,817 25-29 1,004,291 493,113 511,178 370,760 189,476 181,284 633,531
303,637 329,894 30-34 947,900 464,349 483,551 343,445 178,502 164,943 604,455
285,847 318,608 35-39 867,377 424,039 443,338 272,758 146,274 126,484 594,619
277,765 316,854 40-44 722,784 345,762 377,022 209,239 112,273 96,966 513,545
233,489 280,056 45-49 477,820 214,669 263,151 127,681 65,835 61,846 350,139
148,834 201,305 50-54 392,609 178,135 214,474 93,116 48,670 44,446 299,493
129,465 170,028 55-59 315,781 141,903 173,878 66,040 33,713 32,327 249,741
108,190 141,551 60-64 310,069 136,383 173,686 56,647 27,318 29,329 253,422
109,065 144,357 65-69 213,360 91,822 121,538 36,971 17,030 19,941 176,389
74,792 101,597 70-74 146,698 60,097 86,601 25,276 10,811 14,465 121,422
49,286 72,136 75-79 77,572 28,391 49,181 13,614 5,072 8,542 63,958
23,319 40,639 80 + 112,646 38,707 73,939 20,499 6,815 13,684 92,147
31,892 60,255 Total 13,206,731 6,410,075 6,796,656 3,677,956 1,846,045 1,831,911 9,528,775
4,564,030 4,964,745 Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR) 4.1.2. Fertility Fertility indicators considered for the population projections are total fertility rate (TFR) and the age- specific fertility rates (ASFRs).

a) Trends in total fertility rate The base value for the TFR is set at 3.6 children per woman derived from the RPHC5 thematic report on Fertility. The value of TFR has been dropping from 5.9 in 2002, to 4.0 in 2012. b) Age-specific fertility rates As for the age-specific fertility rates, the projections is expected to use the rates provided by the RPHC5. However, these are normalized so that the sum of the ASFRs are 100%. In other terms, what is used as input for the projections are the respective contributions of the 5-year age-groups to the total fertility as measured by the TFR, as shown in Table 4.2.

Table 4. 2. Age-Specific Fertility Rates and contribution to total fertility, 2022 Age-group Age-Specific Fertility Rates Contribution (%) to total fertility 15-19 25 3.4 20-14 137 18.8 25-29 176 24.2 30-34 165 22.7 35-39 134 18.4 40-44 75 10.3 45-49 15 2.1 Total 727 100 Source: Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census, 2022 (NISR)

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