RPHC5%20Thematic%20Report_Population%20Projection.pdf

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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 force that is gainfully employed as articulated in the Vision 2050.

The decline in fertility and improvements in adult and old age survival rates would imply that the future dependency ratio is expected to be sensitive to the decreasing number of children and increasing number of elderly people in the population. This would have implications on providing social support and healthcare and living arrangements of the elderly population.

Consequently, there is great need to put in place appropriate strategies towards provision of social support, health care and living arrangements of the elderly population in both urban and rural areas but also retirement planning.

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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023

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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW OF THE FIFTH RWANDA POPULATION AND HOUSING CENSUS 1.1. Context and justification The history of the Population and Housing Census in Rwanda dates back in the 1970s. To date, five modern censuses have been successfully conducted in Rwanda: 1978, 1991, 2002, 2012 and 2022.
In line with the United Nations Decennial Census Programme, the 2022 Census is the Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census (RPHC5) in series.

Since 2000, and following the endorsement of recommendations from major international conferences held under the auspices of the United Nations, the Government of Rwanda (GoR) has been focusing on the long-term Vision 2020 that aims at transforming Rwanda into a middle-income country. Rwanda pursued the Millennium Development Goals (2000-2015) on the international scene and currently seeks to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as well as Rwanda’s Vision 2050. These goals have been implemented through the medium-term planning framework of the Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS) and the National Strategy for Transformation (NST1). The measurement of progress in implementing national and international programmes in line with various AU and UN recommendations calls for availability of updated demographic and socio-economic statistical data to inform selected indicators at different levels.

The RPHC5 is a reliable and comprehensive source of such data. It was implemented in a way that allows the disaggregation of indicators at the lowest geographical level where it is applicable. The RPHC5 was undertaken to update the national mapping and demographic databases, to provide indicators for monitoring poverty reduction strategies and achievement of national, regional, and international development goals (NST1, Vision 2050, AU Agenda 2063, SDGs, etc.) and to strengthen the technical capacity of the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR).

1.2. Legal and institutional frameworks As an essential precondition for Census execution, the legislation of its operations was secured by the law No. 53bis/2013 of 28/06/2013 establishing the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda and determining its mission, organization and functioning; and law No. 45/2013 of 16/06/2013 on the organization of statistical activities in Rwanda. In order to ensure focused functioning during the whole period of Census execution, a Census Unit of NISR coordinated the overall implementation of the 2022 RPHC5 with support from other NISR units.

1.3. Objectives of the Census The overall goal of the Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census (PHC5) is to contribute to the improvement of the quality of life of the Rwanda population by furnishing the Government and other stakeholders with relevant, reliable, and timely data and information for development planning, policy formulation and service delivery as well as for monitoring and evaluation of development programmes.
Specifically, the 2022 Rwanda Population and Housing Census has been implemented and is well placed to:
• Have increased availability and accessibility of accurate, timely and reliable data on demographic and socio-economic characteristics for evidence-based decisions, policy formulation and monitoring and evaluation of development frameworks at national, sub-national and sectoral levels;
• Have increased knowledge of stakeholders, at all levels, on population characteristics, patterns and trends; • Have strengthened national capacities in data collection, processing, analysis, dissemination

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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 and utilization, including geographic information system (GIS). • Have increased utilization, at all levels, of data
and information for designing, monitoring and
evaluating development programmes;

1.4. Census phases and Methodology
1.4.1. Census phases Following the preparatory phase of the Census, which consisted of the production of the project document detailing all activities, schedule and Census budget, the following technical activities were undertaken: § Census mapping conducted between 18th October, 2020 to 15th July, 2021; § A Pilot Census conducted between 16-30 September, 2021; § Questionnaire and manual development; § Census publicity and sensitization campaign; § Recruitment and training of field staff; § Census enumeration conducted between 16 -30 August, 2022;
§ Post Enumeration Survey conducted between 16-30 September, 2022; and § Post-census activities, including analysis and dissemination of census results.

The success of the RPHC5 is widely attributable to the rigorous pre-census planning and robust census enumeration monitoring undertaken by the NISR as well as the remarkable support received from the Government, people of Rwanda and the generous technical and financial assistance from international development partners. 1.4.2. Census methodology 1.4.2.1. Census mapping Census mapping was a crucial phase of the 2022 RPHC. The purpose of the census mapping is to divide the whole country into well-delineated enumeration areas that constitute the smallest operational census units to be assigned to each enumerator during the enumeration period.
The mapping used the latest versions of technology including satellite imagery and ArcGIS software to collect and document detailed information about the administrative units of the country, including boundaries, and locations of major social GPS coordinates of housing units and economic infrastructure (schools, health centres, hospitals, markets, administrative offices, etc.). These activities were carried out together with the estimation of the population and were used for delimitation of enumeration areas (EAs) in all villages (Imidugudu) of the country.

The Census mapping operation lasted for about 9 months (from 18th October, 2020 to 15th July, 2021), which enabled the NISR to better estimate the number of staff to be recruited (e.g., enumerators, team leaders, supervisors, etc.) and all logistics for the main field data collection. Details from the Census mapping also provided guidance for adequate planning of the other census infrastructures and facilities required for field activities.
The outcomes of the Census mapping included the production of a new sampling frame for future surveys and an updated administrative area boundary map for Rwanda. In total, the country was delineated into 24,339 enumeration areas within the current boundaries of administrative units, consisting of five provinces, 30 districts, 416 sectors and 2,148 cells and 14, 436 villages. This allows for easy compilation of census results in these administrative entities.

1.4.2.2. Pilot Census Prior to the RPHC5, a pilot census was designed for testing the census questionnaires, other census data- collection tools, enumeration time requirements and the state-of-preparedness of the entire field work organisation of the census.

The pilot census was conducted from 16th to 30th
September, 2021 on a sample of 600 EAs, including

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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 416 randomly selected EAs across all sectors and 184 purposively selected EAs in the areas bordering neighbouring countries to Rwanda and in remote rural areas in order to test the internet connectivity, data transmission, and the availability of electricity.
The pilot census was initially planned for 16th to 30th
August, 2021 just to fall one year before the main census but was postponed for one month to ensure adequate preventive measures against the spread of Covid-19.
The pilot census was a rehearsal for the actual census enumeration during which the various methods and procedures for field organisation and operations as well as the census publicity/awareness campaign, census maps production, field remote monitoring, data transmission and storage, ICT infrastructure, and data analysis were tested.

The lessons learnt from the pilot census exercise were used to revise some census procedures and instruments to ensure a smooth/successful implementation of the actual census enumeration.

1.4.2.3. Questionnaires and manuals The questionnaires' design for the 2022 RPHC consisted of updating the questionnaires used during the 2012 census coupled with consultations with stakeholders such as planners and policymakers from different sectors, ministries, other government institutions, private sector, and government's stakeholders,… in order to collect their needs in terms of statistical data. After the development of the questionnaires and the instruction manual, the team of analysts developed a questionnaire specifications to support and ensure a smooth translation of the paper based questionnaire into the CAPI questionnaire by the IT and data processing team.

The lessons learnt during the pilot census were used by the NISR to improve and finalise the census
questionnaires, containing 131 variables, as well as to revise the manuals of instructions for all the census functionaries.

The questionnaires used for data collection are presented in Annex of this report. Two different types of questionnaires were administered: one for private households and one for institutional households. The questionnaire for private households contained a person record, a household record and a mortality record. The questionnaire for institutional households contained only a person record with few questions.

1.4.2.4. Census publicity and sensitisation campaign The success of the census is dependent upon the cooperation and participation of the entire populace. It therefore, becomes imperative to sensitize and educate the public on the importance of the census, an objective that was achieved through the implementation of the communication strategy developed for the census. A phased approach was assumed in implementing the communication strategy that includes awareness in different ways and dissemination mechanisms.
Some of the methods used for publicizing the 2022 RPHC are as below:

a. Digital Communication Programme through websites, social media, and mobile platforms; b. Public Relations, events and mass communication; c. Traditional Advertising through mass and outdoor media;
d. Community Mobilization (Umuganda). e. Radios/TVs shows communication on the census calling for the public participation.

Prior to census enumeration, a national publicity and sensitisation campaign was implemented in order to inform the public about the importance and relevance of the census (RPHC5), as well as to seek the active participation, involvement and collaboration of administrative authorities during the census enumeration.

A subtle and targeted publicity and awareness campaign was conducted before the census, which was later intensified and expanded to cover all districts and villages across.

NISR was responsible for organizing and coordinating, as well as preparing and implementing appropriate communication strategies to all communities at both national and district levels. The materials were appropriately packaged and delivered to the districts for the implementation of communication activities. In addition, the NISR coordinated and implemented communication

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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 interventions as guided by the communication strategy, and where necessary, by the prevailing conditions at the district level. Census's tasks force at Province and District levels played an important role in the census public awareness.

The census results published including the population projections attest to the high level of cooperation of the political and administrative authorities and the effective participation of the general public in the entire census enumeration operation and processes.

1.4.2.5. Recruitment and training of field staff The RPHC5 was conducted by personnel from various institutions: the NISR (the census executing agency), the Rwanda Defence Force through involvement of the Ministry of Defence, the Ministry of Emergency Management, the Rwanda National Police, the Rwanda Correctional Services and MINEDUC (Sector Inspectors of education and teachers).

The recruitment of Census functionaries was done by each institution according to the needs (i.e., number and categories of staff needed ) of the NISR, except in the case of teachers whose recruitment was done by the NISR in collaboration with administrative authorities at the district and sector levels. At each stage of census implementation, the necessary induction and mandatory training of NISR staff and census personnel took place. For example, the census mapping phase was preceded by the training of cartographers, while the pilot census and the actual census enumeration were preceded by the training of enumerators, data quality monitors and their supervisors.

About twelve weeks prior to the commencement of actual Census enumeration, cascaded trainings were organised for all categories of census functionaries, namely: a. Core training for 59 people (exclusively NISR staff);
b. Master training for 200 master trainers (NISR staff expanded to the Data quality monitors/team leaders and special institutions national coordinators;
c. Training of trainers for 1,748 trainers organised in 30 training centres, one centre per district; and d. Training of 26,536 enumerators in 445 training centres spread across all sectors of the country.

The census training sessions focused on understanding of census questionnaire content, census enumeration processes and the correct completion of census questionnaires, reading and interpretation of census maps, practical role plays, and field practice. All the trainers and trainees were subjected to mandatory qualifying tests which they had to pass before being appointed.

In order to mitigate the risk of declining quality of training at the various cascading trainings, the training content was recorded in audio-visual materials from the studio. The recorded materials were projected in each training centre and were registered in each trainee’s telephone for use in case of electricity outage or at home.

Regarding the organization of the training in each
centre, four trainers were in charge of the training centre.
The training in each of the centres were coordinated at the central level by NISR trainers who moderated all training sessions using CISCO Webex to ensure that all contents were covered and timely management of the cessions.

1.4.2.6. Actual census enumeration As planned, the actual census enumeration of the population in private and institutional households was conducted across the country from 16th to 30th August 2022, immediately after the Census reference night (the night of 15th to 16th August, 2022). Although data-collection activities were carried out by well- trained enumerators, quality assurance of the Census enumeration was ensured through close supervision at various levels.

The census personnel deployed for the RPHC5 comprised the following personnel: a. Enumerators and support staff; b. Sector supervisors; c. Field monitors/data quality monitors and district team leaders; d. Field analysts, data analysts; and e. National coordinators.