RPHC5%20Thematic%20Report_Population%20Projection.pdf

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156

Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census - Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Annex Table 70. Projections of relevant legal majority age-groups by area of residence, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario Projections Year 14 years and above 16 years and above 18 years and above 21 years and above Rwanda Urban Rural Rwanda Urban Rural Rwanda Urban Rural Rwanda Urban Rural 2022 8,571,430
2,489,691
6,081,739
7,954,492
2,338,132
5,616,361
7,335,312
2,177,293
5,158,020
6,499,159
1,940,586
4,558,576
2023 8,812,603 2,685,709 6,126,894 8,201,784 2,527,655 5,674,129 7,580,400 2,357,697 5,222,702 6,698,403 2,095,066 4,603,337 2024 9,054,575 2,888,551 6,166,024 8,445,442 2,723,055 5,722,387 7,829,414 2,546,279 5,283,135 6,915,998 2,260,945 4,655,053 2025 9,301,727 3,099,713 6,202,014 8,686,736 2,924,673 5,762,064 8,076,787 2,741,426 5,335,360 7,149,932 2,438,336 4,711,597 2026 9,556,974 3,320,061 6,236,913 8,928,343 3,132,951 5,795,392 8,320,044 2,941,987 5,378,057 7,394,699 2,626,057 4,768,642 2027 9,820,728 3,549,889 6,270,838 9,174,652 3,349,087 5,825,565 8,560,470 3,147,957 5,412,513 7,642,670 2,821,641 4,821,028 2028 10,091,253 3,789,231 6,302,022 9,428,658 3,574,474 5,854,184 8,800,820 3,360,319 5,440,501 7,888,368 3,023,237 4,865,131 2029 10,365,802 4,037,306 6,328,496 9,690,824 3,809,474 5,881,350 9,045,529 3,580,530 5,464,999 8,129,402 3,229,488 4,899,914 2030 10,641,188 4,293,172 6,348,016 9,959,464 4,053,837 5,905,627 9,297,635 3,809,919 5,487,716 8,367,161 3,440,609 4,926,551 2031 10,914,867 4,555,953 6,358,914 10,231,948 4,306,897 5,925,051 9,557,714 4,049,078 5,508,636 8,604,494 3,657,461 4,947,033 2032 11,183,716 4,824,420 6,359,297 10,505,177 4,567,637 5,937,539 9,824,168 4,297,751 5,526,417 8,845,968 3,881,991 4,963,977 2033 11,451,558 5,063,876 6,387,682 10,776,651 4,801,336 5,975,315 10,094,412 4,523,547 5,570,866 9,094,712 4,087,433 5,007,280 2034 11,718,388 5,312,028 6,406,360 11,043,253 5,041,948 6,001,305 10,365,353 4,758,315 5,607,038 9,351,333 4,304,171 5,047,162 2035 11,984,209 5,569,054 6,415,155 11,308,785 5,291,141 6,017,645 10,634,479 5,001,185 5,633,294 9,614,235 4,532,027 5,082,208 2036 12,249,071 5,835,143 6,413,929 11,573,230 5,549,054 6,024,176 10,898,669 5,250,888 5,647,781 9,880,835 4,770,273 5,110,562 2037 12,530,819 6,117,931 6,412,888 11,836,539 5,815,851 6,020,689 11,161,668 5,509,159 5,652,509 10,147,984 5,017,760 5,130,224 2038 12,818,070 6,413,506 6,404,563 12,098,728 6,091,173 6,007,555 11,423,417 5,775,666 5,647,750 10,413,126 5,273,187 5,139,940 2039 13,110,936 6,722,526 6,388,410 12,377,666 6,384,334 5,993,333 11,683,907 6,051,071 5,632,836 10,673,133 5,535,007 5,138,126 2040 13,409,473 7,045,646 6,363,828 12,662,074 6,690,803 5,971,271 11,943,250 6,335,733 5,607,517 10,931,843 5,805,617 5,126,226 2041 13,713,680 7,383,534 6,330,147 12,952,181 7,011,337 5,940,844 12,219,414 6,639,121 5,580,293 11,189,348 6,085,402 5,103,946 2042 14,023,512 7,736,855 6,286,656 13,248,114 7,346,668 5,901,447 12,501,203 6,956,500 5,544,703 11,445,772 6,374,757 5,071,015 2043 14,338,880 8,106,716 6,232,164 13,549,864 7,697,954 5,851,910 12,788,837 7,289,123 5,499,714 11,701,271 6,673,025 5,028,246 2044 14,659,624 8,493,437 6,166,188 13,857,302 8,065,513 5,791,789 13,082,359 7,637,400 5,444,959 11,973,719 6,992,742 4,980,977 2045 14,985,505 8,897,590 6,087,915 14,170,219 8,449,922 5,720,297 13,381,639 8,001,940 5,379,699 12,251,790 7,327,606 4,924,184 2046 15,316,194 9,319,698 5,996,497 14,488,329 8,851,714 5,636,615 13,686,423 8,383,283 5,303,140 12,535,522 7,678,301 4,857,221 2047 15,651,266 9,760,246 5,891,020 14,811,296 9,271,418 5,539,878 13,996,406 8,781,967 5,214,439 12,824,799 8,045,470 4,779,329 2048 15,990,229 10,219,884 5,770,345 15,138,749 9,709,775 5,428,973 14,311,258 9,198,777 5,112,481 13,119,384 8,429,976 4,689,408 2049 16,332,533 10,698,932 5,633,601 15,470,275 10,167,180 5,303,095 14,630,657 9,634,144 4,996,513 13,419,003 8,832,266 4,586,738 2050 16,677,564 11,197,780 5,479,784 15,805,438 10,644,147 5,161,291 14,954,286 10,088,666 4,865,620 13,723,396 9,252,975 4,470,422 2051 17,024,725 11,716,807 5,307,918 16,143,760 11,141,157 5,002,603 15,281,806 10,562,925 4,718,881 14,032,329 9,692,761 4,339,568 2052 17,373,457 12,256,407 5,117,050 16,484,686 11,658,642 4,826,045 15,612,839 11,057,492 4,555,347 14,345,570 10,152,309 4,193,262

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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Annex Table 71. Projections of private households and newly created households, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario Projections Year Total Population Mean size
Total Households Newly households to be created 2022 13,206,731 4.0
3,277,104

2023 13,499,134 4.0
3,374,784 97,679 2024 13,798,561 4.0
3,484,485 109,702 2025 14,104,965 3.9
3,589,050 104,565 2026 14,418,145 3.9
3,706,464 117,414 2027 14,737,803 3.9
3,818,084 111,620 2028 15,063,640 3.8
3,943,361 125,278 2029 15,395,339 3.8
4,062,095 118,733 2030 15,732,629 3.8
4,184,210 122,115 2031 16,075,281 3.7
4,321,312 137,102 2032 16,423,064 3.7
4,450,695 129,383 2033 16,775,708 3.7
4,596,084 145,390 2034 17,132,899 3.6
4,732,845 136,761 2035 17,494,219 3.6
4,886,653 153,808 2036 17,858,979 3.6
5,030,698 144,045 2037 18,226,565 3.5
5,178,001 147,303 2038 18,596,391 3.5
5,343,791 165,789 2039 18,968,311 3.5
5,498,061 154,271 2040 19,341,762 3.4
5,672,071 174,010 2041 19,716,059 3.4
5,833,154 161,083 2042 20,090,630 3.3
6,015,159 182,005 2043 20,465,139 3.3
6,182,821 167,663 2044 20,839,343 3.3
6,372,888 190,066 2045 21,212,882 3.2
6,547,186 174,298 2046 21,585,415 3.2
6,724,428 177,243 2047 21,956,640 3.2
6,926,385 201,957 2048 22,326,433 3.1
7,110,329 183,944 2049 22,694,774 3.1
7,320,895 210,566 2050 23,061,561 3.1
7,511,909 191,014 2051 23,426,776 3.0
7,731,609 219,700 2052 23,790,420 3.0
7,930,140 198,531

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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Annex Table 72. Projections of urban private households and newly created households, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario Projections Year Urban Population Mean size
Total Households Newly households to be created 2022 3,677,954 3.8 960,301

2023 3,949,053 3.8 1,039,224 78,923 2024 4,230,522 3.8 1,122,154 82,930 2025 4,522,641 3.7 1,209,262 87,108 2026 4,825,639 3.7 1,300,711 91,449 2027 5,139,697 3.7 1,400,462 99,751 2028 5,464,979 3.6 1,501,368 100,905 2029 5,801,626 3.6 1,607,099 105,731 2030 6,149,779 3.6 1,717,815 110,717 2031 6,509,582 3.6 1,833,685 115,870 2032 6,881,164 3.5 1,954,876 121,191 2033 7,211,624 3.5 2,066,368 111,492 2034 7,556,621 3.5 2,183,995 117,627 2035 7,916,547 3.4 2,308,031 124,037 2036 8,291,677 3.4 2,438,729 130,697 2037 8,682,306 3.4 2,576,352 137,623 2038 9,088,737 3.3 2,729,350 152,999 2039 9,511,478 3.3 2,882,266 152,916 2040 9,950,843 3.3 3,043,071 160,805 2041 10,407,071 3.2 3,212,059 168,988 2042 10,880,440 3.2 3,389,545 177,486 2043 11,371,352 3.2 3,575,897 186,352 2044 11,880,259 3.2 3,771,511 195,614 2045 12,407,552 3.1 3,976,779 205,269 2046 12,953,625 3.1 4,192,112 215,332 2047 13,518,899 3.1 4,417,941 225,829 2048 14,103,902 3.0 4,670,166 252,225 2049 14,709,243 3.0 4,919,479 249,313 2050 15,335,493 3.0 5,180,910 261,431 2051 15,983,285 2.9 5,455,046 274,136 2052 16,653,294 2.9 5,742,515 287,469

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Fifth Rwanda Population and Housing Census Thematic Report: Population Projections, 2023 Annex Table 73. Projections of rural private households and newly created households, 2022-2052 - Medium scenario Projections Year Rural Population Mean size
Total Households Newly households to be created 2022 9,528,777 4.1
2,316,803

2023 9,550,081 4.1
2,335,559 18,756 2024 9,568,039 4.1
2,362,331 26,772 2025 9,582,324 4.0
2,379,787 17,457 2026 9,592,506 4.0
2,405,753 25,965 2027 9,598,106 4.0
2,417,621 11,869 2028 9,598,661 3.9
2,441,993 24,372 2029 9,593,713 3.9
2,454,996 13,003 2030 9,582,850 3.9
2,466,394 11,398 2031 9,565,699 3.8
2,487,627 21,233 2032 9,541,900 3.8
2,495,819 8,192 2033 9,564,084 3.8
2,529,716 33,898 2034 9,576,278 3.8
2,548,851 19,134 2035 9,577,672 3.7
2,578,622 29,772 2036 9,567,302 3.7
2,591,970 13,348 2037 9,544,259 3.7
2,601,649 9,680 2038 9,507,654 3.6
2,614,440 12,791 2039 9,456,833 3.6
2,615,795 1,355 2040 9,390,919 3.6
2,629,000 13,205 2041 9,308,988 3.6
2,621,095 -7,905 2042 9,210,190 3.5
2,625,614 4,519 2043 9,093,787 3.5
2,606,925 -18,689 2044 8,959,084 3.4
2,601,377 -5,548 2045 8,805,330 3.4
2,570,406 -30,971 2046 8,631,790 3.4
2,532,317 -38,090 2047 8,437,741 3.4
2,508,444 -23,873 2048 8,222,531 3.4
2,440,163 -68,281 2049 7,985,531 3.3
2,401,416 -38,747 2050 7,726,068 3.3
2,330,999 -70,416 2051 7,443,491 3.3
2,276,563 -54,436 2052 7,137,126 3.3
2,187,625 -88,938