How Population Decline Gets Taken Apart

Population change is accounted for as births minus deaths plus net migration.

Fertility projections combine age-specific fertility with the number and age structure of women.

Mortality projections use age-specific mortality to determine deaths and survival through the population projection.

Migration is separated into inflows and outflows, using migration data or modeled assumptions alongside detailed regional demographic inputs.

A projection is conditional on its assumptions and scenarios, not a direct causal account of one region’s observed decline.