Nature Geoscience Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01742-z 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 100 0 % 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 100 0 % 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 100 0 % 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 100 0 % 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 100 0 % 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 100 0 % 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 100 0 % 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 100 0 % Forest Shrubland Grassland Wetland Available for restoration Potential total cover A B C D E F G H Extended Data Fig. 2 | Potential distribution of modelled ecosystems (A-D) and the available area for restoration or spontaneous establishment (E-H), predicted using SSP2-4.5 (2061–2080). Color coding indicates the percentage of each ecosystem type (predicted and available) within a 1 × 1 km grid. Thus, ecosystem combinations (for example forest steppes and savanna-forest mosaics) are also allowed in our grid-level restoration planning, although the proportion of each constituting ecosystem type appears on different maps. For example, a savanna-forest mosaic landscape can contain forested, shrubby and grassy parts within a grid cell, and their proportional values are shown on each of the three corresponding maps. We excluded potential restoration activities in intensive agricultural and built-up areas and in biomes with low productivity (polar and arid regions).
Nature Geoscience Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01742-z 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 100 0 % 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 100 0 % 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 100 0 % 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 100 0 % 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 100 0 % 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 100 0 % 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 100 0 % 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 100 0 % Forest Shrubland Grassland Wetland Available for restoration Potential total cover A B C D E F G H Extended Data Fig. 3 | 3 Potential distribution of modelled ecosystems (A-D) and the available area for restoration or spontaneous establishment (E-H), predicted using SSP3-7.0 (2061–2080). Color coding indicates the percentage of each ecosystem type (predicted and available) within a 1 × 1 km grid. Thus, ecosystem combinations (for example forest steppes and savanna-forest mosaics) are also allowed in our grid-level restoration planning, although the proportion of each constituting ecosystem type appears on different maps. For example, a savanna-forest mosaic landscape can contain forested, shrubby and grassy parts within a grid cell, and their proportional values are shown on each of the three corresponding maps. We excluded potential restoration activities in intensive agricultural and built-up areas and in biomes with low productivity (polar and arid regions).
Nature Geoscience Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01742-z 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 100 0 % 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 100 0 % 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 100 0 % 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 100 0 % 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 100 0 % 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 100 0 % 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 100 0 % 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 100 0 % Forest Shrubland Grassland Wetland Available for restoration Potential total cover A B C D E F G H Extended Data Fig. 4 | Potential distribution of modelled ecosystems (A-D) and the available area for restoration or spontaneous establishment (E-H), predicted using SSP5-8.5 (2061–2080). Color coding indicates the percentage of each ecosystem type (predicted and available) within a 1 × 1 km grid. Thus, ecosystem combinations (for example forest steppes and savanna-forest mosaics) are also allowed in our grid-level restoration planning, although the proportion of each constituting ecosystem type appears on different maps. For example, a savanna-forest mosaic landscape can contain forested, shrubby and grassy parts within a grid cell, and their proportional values are shown on each of the three corresponding maps. We excluded potential restoration activities in intensive agricultural and built-up areas and in biomes with low productivity (polar and arid regions).
Nature Geoscience Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01742-z 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 3.21 t ha-1 yr-1 -2.94 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 3.19 t ha-1 yr-1 -2.95 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 3.19 t ha-1 yr-1 -2.95 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S 3.19 t ha-1 yr-1 -2.94 SSP1-2.6 SSP2-4.5 SSP3-7.0 SSP5-8.5 Extended Data Fig. 5 | Global distribution of potential annual rates of carbon gain (green) or loss (red). Calculations were made on all land available for restoration or subject to ecosystem state transitions, predicted using climates projected for 2061–2080 in scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5. Carbon gain or loss includes both above- and below-ground carbon capture (except in savanna grasslands where we considered only belowground rates due to frequent fires). Shown carbon gain rates are calculated as the difference between the rates of the predicted restoration targets minus the rates of the current ecosystem types in 1 × 1 km modeling sites. We used biome-specific rates for each of the four ecosystem types instead of global averages.
Nature Geoscience Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01742-z 180° 180° 120° E 120° E 60° E 60° E 0° 0° 60° W 60° W 120° W 120° W 180° 180° 30° N 30° N 0° 0° 30° S 30° S 60° N 60° N 60° S 60° S Extended Data Fig. 6 | Distribution of the 158.850 learning sites we used to train our predictive models for the four target ecosystem types. Located within protected areas, we assumed that they contain each ecosystem type in proportions that match restoration targets.
Nature Geoscience Article https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01742-z Extended Data Fig. 7 | Distribution of the predicted cover fraction values within eleven intervals of the observed values for each ecosystem type. Percentage scores in the right side of the subplots indicate the amount of pixels in the respective ranges. Boxes show the interquartile range (IQR) of the data. Thick lines in the boxes are the median values. Whiskers extend towards the minimum or maximum values but are no longer than 1.5 times the IQR. Data beyond the whiskers are shown as individual points.