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STATISTICAL RELEASE
In reply please quote:
Our ref: NBS/S.40/21/488 Date: March 2026.
EXPORT AND IMPORT PRICE INDICES FOR THE QUARTER ENDING DECEMBER 2025
Background notes
Definition The Export and Import Price Indices (XMPI) are average measures of price changes of goods exported outside or imported into the country. The XMPI are used in various areas to do analysis such as Terms of Trade (ToT), which is the ratio of Export Price Inde x (XPI) to the Import Price Index (MPI).
The Export and Import Price Indices, are compiled on a quarterly basis, cover both exports and imports of merchandise trade. These quarterly specifications based on XMPI have been compiled and disseminated since the first quarter of 2013 up to the last qua rter of 2022 with reference base period being the quarter ending December 2017. The updated XMPI has the first quarter of 2023 as the reference base period. The updated weights and the product sample for the XMPI used customs data for the years 2019 to 202 1. Price collection for the updated XMPI was carried out during the period of November to December 2023. This allowed for the compilation of the XMPI for the first quarter of 2023 using the new product and enterprise samples.
Weights and a reference period The XMPI weights are based on values of imported and exported commodities for the period 2019 to 2021. A top -down approach was employed when determining the index structure, composition, and the allocation of the weights. The aim was to maximize the indirect representation of un-priced commodities in the index, through a chain of representation. The price reference period is the quarter ending March 2023.
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Product Classification
The products are classified according to the United Nations Harmonized Commodity Description
and Coding System (HS). The HS is an international nomenclature for the classification of
products.
Methodology
Selection of items: In the selection of items, a top-down process was applied in three steps.
First, the major 2-digit HS chapters that contributed to the total value of imports from 2019 to
2021 were selected for direct inclusion in the indices. The process resulted in th e selection of
16 chapters (2 -digit HS codes) for imports and 12 chapters for exports from a total of 99
chapters, representing 80 percent or more depending on the degree of concentration.
Secondly, the process was repeated at 4-digit level of HS, resulting in the selection of 76 items
for imports and 19 items for exports. Finally, the procedure was repeated at the 8 -digit level
of the HS, where165 items selected for imports and 25 items for exports. These steps facilitated
the derivation of the structure and composition of the indices.
The XMPI has incorporated a number of methodological improvements including the use of
geometric means for compiling elementary index aggregates, the use of an improved index
compilation system, and improved procedures for collecting and processing prices data. The
Laspeyres index formula was used to compute higher level aggregates for the XMPI. Chart 1
depicts trends of XPI and MPI in the selected quarters.
Chart 1: Quarterly Export and Import Price Indices (Q1 2023=100)
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Note: Q1=January-March, Q2=April-June, Q3=July-September, Q4=October-December
Export Price Index
Structure of the XPI
The XPI covers 12 chapters out 99 chapters, namely; (i) Fish and crustaceans, molluscs and
other aquatic invertebrates, (ii) Edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers, (iii) Edible fruits
and nuts, peel of citrus fruit or melons, (iv) Coffee, tea, mate and spices, (v) Cereals, (vi) Oil
seed, oleaginous fruits; miscellaneous grains, se eds and fruit; industrial or medicinal plants;
straw and fodder, (vii) Tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes, (viii) Ores, slag and
ash, (ix) Salt; sulphur; earths and stone; plastering materials; lime and cement, (x) Cotton,
(xi) Wadding, felt & nonwoven; yarns; twine, cordage, etc. and (xii) Natural or cultured pearls,
precious stones and metals, coin, etc. The sample of twelve chapters constitutes 80 percent
of the total value of exports, aggregated from 2019 to 2021.
Quarterly Export Price Index
The overall Export Price Index during the quarter ending December 2025 increased by 1.5
percent to 120.9 from 119.1 recorded in the preceding quarter. This development was largely
attributed to the increase in prices of gold. Likewise, when compared to a similar quarter in
2024, the index increased by 3.6 percent (Table 1).
Table 1: Quarterly Export Price Indices by Chapter (Q1 2023= 100)
Note: Q1=January-March, Q2=April-June, Q3=July-September, Q4=October-December
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Sub-indices by Chapter This section gives detailed analysis on the movements of export price indices by chapter:
Chapter 03: Fish and crustacean, molluscs and other aquatic invertebrate The index for “Fish and crustaceans, molluscs, and other aquatic invertebrates,” accounting for 3.4 percent of the total weight, decreased marginally by 0.9 percent to 126.0 in the fourth quarter of 2025 from 127.2 recorded in the third quarter of 2025. Li kewise, when compared to the corresponding quarter in 2024, the index decreased by 1.7 percent.
Chapter 07: Edible vegetables and certain roots and tuber This chapter contributed 4.8 percent of the total weight of exported commodities. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the index decreased by 1.1 percen t, dropping to 114.8 from 116.0 in the previous quarter. The decline was associated with a fall in the international market prices of pigeon peas amid global surplus due to production increase in major producing countries, especially India. Likewise, when compared to the similar quarter in 2024, the index decreased by 4.2 percent.
Chapter 08: Edible fruits and nuts, peel of citrus fruit or melons During the fourth quarter of 2025, the export price index for “Edible fruits and nuts,” which accounts for 6.6 percent of the total weight, increased by 1.6 percent to 119.4 from 117.5 recorded in the previous quarter. The performance was associated with reduced seasonal supply and higher festive demand of cashew nuts in major markets such as China, the United States and Europe. Likewise, when compared to the same quarter in 2024, the i ndex has increased by 5.5 percent.
Chapter 09: Coffee, tea, mate and spices This chapter contributed 4.8 percent of the total weight of exported commodities. During the fourth quarter of 2025, the index for “coffee, tea, mate, and spices'' increased by 1.8 percent to 123.4 from 121.1 recorded in the previous quarter. The increase was mainly associated with the rise of coffee and tea prices in the world market, as a result of adverse weather conditions in Brazil and Vietnam, the world’s largest coffee producers. Likewise, wh en compared to the similar quarter in 2024, the index increased by 2.2 percent. Chapter 10: Cereals The export price index for “cereal” represents 4.7 percent of the total weight of exports. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the index decreased marginally by 0.6 percent to 104.4 from 105.1
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recorded in the preceding quarter. Likewise, when compared to the similar quarter in 2024, the index decreased by 5.3 percent.
Chapter 12: Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits; miscellaneous grains, seeds and fruit; industrial or medicinal plants; straw and fodder This chapter accounts for 4.7 percent of the total weight. During the fourth quarter of 2025, the index for “Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits; miscellaneous grains, seeds and fruit; industrial or medicinal plants; straw, and fodder” increased slightly by 0. 8 percent to 112.5 from 111.6 recorded in the previous quarter . However, when compared to the corresponding quarter in the previous year, the index decreased by 0.7 percent.
Chapter 24: Tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes This chapter accounts for 3.5 percent of the total weight. During the fourth quarter of 2025, the index decreased by 2.1 percent to 125.3 from 127.9 recorded in the previous quarter. The performance was highly associated with the increased supply following harvest and stronger competition among producers. Nonetheless, when compared to the same quarter in 2024, the index increased by 2.2 percent.
Chapter 25: Salt; sulphur; earth and stone; plastering material; lime and cement The export price index for “Salt; sulphur; earth and stone; plastering material; lime and cement,” accounting for 2.2 percent of the total weight, decreased by 2.7 percent to 119.4 in the fourth quarter of 2025 from 122.8 recorded in the previous quarter. The decline was attributed to increased supply, weaker demand from construction and industrial sectors coupled with lower energy costs. Similarly, when comp ared to the corresponding quarter in 2024, the index decreased by 2.1 percent.
Chapter 26: Ores, slag and ash The export price index for “Ores, slag, and ash,” which accounts for 3.6 percent of the total weight, increased by 4.4 percent to 121.1 from 115.9 recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025. The perform ance was associated with the higher global demand of minerals in the world market. Additionally, when compared to the same quarter in 2024, the index increased by 7.4 percent. Chapter 52: Cotton During the fourth quarter of 2025, the export price index for “Cotton,” which accounts for 2.0 percent of the total weight, decreased by 1.5 perc ent to 85.8 compared to 87.0 recorded in
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the third quarter of 2025. The decrease was largely attributed to the decrease in global prices of cotton due to sluggish global economic growth and declining consumer demand. However, when compared to the same quarter in 2024, the index increased by 1.3 percent.
Chapter 56: Wadding, felt & nonwoven; yarns; twine, cordage, etc. The chapter contributes 0.6 percent of the total weight of exported commodities. During the fourth quarter of 2025, the index decreased slightly by 0.9 percent to 114.9 from 116.0 recorded in the previous quarter. Likewise, when compared to the same quarter in 2024, the index decreased by 0.9 percent.
Chapter 71: Natural or cultured pearls, precious stones and metals, coins etc. The export price index for “Natural or cultured pearls, precious stones and metals, coin, etc.,” which accounts for 59.0 percent of the total weight of exported commodities, increased by 14.1 percent to 184.1 in the fourth quarter of 2025 from 161.4 recorded in the preceding quarter. The rise was largely associated with the increase in the global prices of gold, driven by strong safe -haven demand in the light of trade and policy uncertainty. Corres pondingly, when compared to the similar quarter last year, the index increased by 33.9 percent.
Import Price Index
Structure of the MPI The MPI covers 16 chapters out of 99 chapters, namely; (i) Cereals, (ii) Animal fats and oil & their cleavage product, (iii) Sugars and sugar confectionery, (iv) Mineral fuels, oils and product of their distillation, (v) Pharmaceutical products, (vi) Fertilisers, (vii) Miscellaneous chemical products, (viii) Plastics and articles thereof, (ix) Rubber and articles thereof, (x) Other made up textile articles; sets; worn clothing etc., (xi) Iron and steel, (xii) Articles of iron and steel, (xiii) Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and machinery appliance, parts, ( xiv) Electrical machinery equipment parts thereof; sound recorder etc., (xv) Vehicles other than railway or transport way roll -stock, parts and accessories and (xvi) Optical, photographic, cinematographic, measuring, checking, precision, etc. The sampled sixteen chapters constitute 80 percent of total value of imports aggregated from 2019 to 2022.
Quarterly Import Price Index
The overall Import Price Index for the quarter ending December 2025 decreased marginally by 0.9 percent to 102.9 from 103.8 recorded in the preceding quarter. This development was
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partly associated with the fall in plastic and sugar prices. Likewise, when compared to the same quarter in 2024 the index decreased by 0.9 percent. (Table 2).
Table 2: Quarterly Import Price Indices by Chapter (Q1 2023= 100)
Note: Q1=January-March, Q2=April-June, Q3=July-September, Q4=October-December
Sub-indices by Chapter This section analyses movements of import price indices for each chapter.
Chapter 10: Cereals This chapter accounts for 3.2 percent of the total weight. During the fourth quarter of 2025, the import price index for “Cereals” increased by 1.6 percent to 86.5 from 85.1 recorded in the third quarter of 2025. The performance was mainly associated with reduced global supplies of wheat, which increased upward pressure on world market prices. However, when compared to the corresponding quarter last year, the index decreased marginally by 0.3 percent.
Chapter 15: Animal fats and oil and their cleavage product This chapter contributes 2.7 percent of the total weight of the imported commodities. In the Fourth quarter of 2025, the index decreased by 1.0 percent to 116.1 from 117.3 recorded in the previous quarter. Oil prices exhibited a decrease mainly due to stronger edible oil demand, particularly from the biofuel sector, as well as supply -related pressures in some markets. Conversely, when compared to the same quarter in 2024, the index increased by 1.9 percent.
Chapter 17: Sugars and sugar confectionery This chapter contributes 1.6 percent of the total weight of the imported commodities. During the Fourth quarter of 2025, the price index fell by 6.5 percent to 104.4 from 111.6 recorded