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El Niño is back, and the timing is grim

El Niño is lining up for a return just as the world is already overheating. What happens when a climate driver that supercharges extremes meets a planet this warm? Here are the latest must-know developments.

  • Satellite image of Earth showing areas of the Pacific ocean that are warmer and higher - a sign of El Niño
  • The status of whether the world is being impacted by an El Niño or a La Niña is determined by water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. (NOAA)
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El Niño watch: The WMO says there is an 80% chance it forms before September and a 90% chance before November, with models leaning at least moderate and possibly strong. That could mean more heat, drought and flood risk worldwide[16]

  • Just as El Niño influences ocean surface temperatures, it also alters the amount and location of clouds over the Pacific.
  • Gif showing warmer water associated with El Nino forming at the equator of the Pacific Ocean and off the coast of South America
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Why it matters: The UN says El Niño can "pour fuel on the fire" of a warming world, and forecasters warn 2027 could be another record-hot year if it kicks in. Farmers, water systems and disaster planners are on notice[15][14]

  • During an El Niño, wind patterns shift all over the Pacific Ocean. Most significantly, they get weaker (purple) in the eastern tropical Pacific, allowing warm surface water to move toward the Americas.
  • A trend line is added to the fully coloured line chart to emphasise the increase.
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Middle East tension: CNN, AP and the BBC all report that the Iran ceasefire is fragile, with strikes in Lebanon, talks with Lebanon, and confusion over what the deal actually covers. One regional spark is still enough to rattle global energy flows[18][7][13]

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Elsewhere today: UN reports highlight Gaza, the West Bank and Afghanistan, while BBC and CNN both note new hostages-prisoner exchanges and fresh security concerns across Europe. It is a reminder that several crises are moving at once[4][13][18]

  • A young Palestinian boy walks through the rubble and debris of a destroyed building in Gaza.
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Which of these stories feels most consequential to you right now? Reply with the one you think will shape the next few weeks, and retweet if you want more fast world-news threads.

  • World News
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