LFS_Q1_2026_Report.pdf

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9 © NISR LFS 2026–Q1 Rwanda Labour force survey, February
2026 (Q1) Summary labour force indicators v 44.4% 58.4 % 14.6% 41.6% 41% Population outside the labour force (Not employed nor unemployed) 3,103,648 persons 47.5% 26.7% 25.8% Out of Labour Force rate 35.7% Subsistence agriculture Exclusively Students Other outside LF (Elderly, people with disabilities, discouraged job seekers) 1,642,949 Composite measure of labour underutilization rate Labour underutilization 56.5 % 3,941,363 persons Unemployed Potential labour force 615,347 Time-related underemployed 1,865,318 Excluding subsistence foodstuff production Share of unemployed but engaged in subsistence agriculture. Other unemployed AGRICULTURE 57.2% EMPLOYMENT TO POPULATION RATIO (EPR) 11% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (UR) EMPLOYED UNEMPLOYED INDUSTRY SERVICE All who worked for pay or profit 4,974,223 persons All not employed but seeking and available to work for pay or profit 615,347 persons THE LABOUR FORCE Labour Force Participation 5,589,570 Persons OUT OF LABOUR FORCE (Portion of employed) Unemployed UR Labour Force x 100 Working age population 16 years old and over (WAP): 8,693,219 persons (This includes those who are in labour force and those out of labour force) 64.3% The sum of employed and unemployed Portion of out of labour force)

10 © NISR LFS 2026–Q1 Chapter 1 Introduction The Rwanda Labour Force Survey (RLFS) was established in 2016 to provide robust data for main labour market indicators. From February 2019, the sample was spread into four rounds to provide estimates of labour market indicators at national level on a quarterly basis. The main objective of the survey is to provide data on the structure and trends of labour force, employment, and unemployment as well as other related labour market statistics for the implementation and evaluation of economic and social policies related to employment creation, income generation, skills development, and related decent work policies. In February 2024, NISR increased the sample size and update the sampling design to obtain more precise quarterly estimates at the National level and annual estimates at districts and other sub national areas. The current findings are from the first quarter of LFS 2026, with data collected in February 2026. The current LFS is designed using a two-stage stratified design with a 2-2-2 rotational scheme. At the first stage of sampling, a stratified sample of 552 census enumeration areas, referred to as primary sampling units (PSUs) are drawn from the 2022 census sampling frame. The selection is based on probabilities proportional to size measured in terms of number of households according to the latest census of population. The sample includes 36 strata composed of the 24 complete administrative districts and 6 districts subdivided into urban and rural each. At the second stage of sampling, 12 households were selected from each of the sampled PSUs with equal probabilities. All household members in the sample are then selected for a survey interview. At the end of the data collection, the response rate was evaluated to 96.4 %, which increased compared to the same quarter one year back (95.7 %). The resulting estimates of the main labour force indicators at the national level have the standard errors of about 0.4 percent. The focus of the present report is the analysis of trends of employment and labour underutilization. This includes unemployment at the national level by selected demographic and socioeconomic characteristics such as sex, age group, and educational attainment. This report compares the results of February 2026 (Q1) labour force survey with those of February 2025 (Q1). However, in some sections, the tables or figures are presented with the additional time series of results of the same quarters from February 2021 to February 2026. The excel file including the full quarterly time series of the main indicators is also published along with this report at the NISR website. The survey results analysed in this report are presented into seven chapters, including this introduction. The other chapters cover the following: • Labour market overview • Characteristics of the population in the labour force • Characteristics of employed population • Unemployment and labour underutilization • Population outside the labour force and Work in agriculture

11 © NISR LFS 2026–Q1 Chapter 2 Labour Market Overview 2.1 Labour force participation rate, employment to population ratio and unemployment rate Figure 2.1 illustrates the trends of some key labour market indicators. In February 2026 (Q1), the unemployment rate declined to 11 % compared to 11.1 % observed in February 2025 (Q1). An analysis of employment trends shows that in February 2026 (Q1), the employment-to-population ratio increased by 1.2 percentage points as compared to February 2025 (Q1) and the labour force participation rate increased by 1.3 percentage points in the same period. Figure 2. 1. Trend Labour force participation rate, employment to population ratio and unemployment rate Source: National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), Labour Force Survey (LFS) 2.2 Trend of labour Underutilization Figure 2.3 presents trends in rates of population outside the labour force, disaggregated by category. The results show that the rate of population outside labour force in February 2026 (Q1) declined by 1.3 percentage points compared to the estimated value for the same quarter one year back (February 2025). Among the components of the population outside the labour force, available non-job seekers constitute a substantial category in Rwanda. More people in this category are primarily subsistence farmers. In February 2026(Q1) the proportion of the working age population in this category increased by 1.4 percentage point compared to the estimate of the same quarter in the previous year (February 2025). An important sub-category within available non-job seekers is discouraged jobseekers, these are people outside the labour force who did not “seek employment” for labour market-related reasons such as past failure to find a suitable job, lack of experience, required qualifications matching the person’s skills, lack of job opportunities in the area, being considered too young or too old by prospective employers. In February 2026 (Q1) (, the proportion of discouraged jobseekers within the working age population remained steady compared to the same quarter one year back (February 2025). Percentage (%) 50.6 42 54.5 45.5 57.6 47.7 61 53.2 64.3 57.2 63 56 17 16.5 17.2 12.9 11.1 11 EPR UR LFPR 2021Q1 2022Q1 2023Q1 2024Q1 2025Q1 2026Q1

12 Labour Force Survey 2026 © NISR LFS 2026–Q1 Figure 2. 2 Trends of labour underutilization Source: National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), Labour Force Survey (LFS) 2.3. Rate of population outside the labour force Figure 2.3 presents trends in rates of population outside the labour force, disaggregated by category. The results show that the rate of population outside labour force in February 2026 (Q1) declined by 1.3 percentage points as compared to the estimated value for the same quarter one year back (February 2025). Among the components of the population outside the labour force, available non-job seekers constitute a substantial category in Rwanda. More people in this category are primarily subsistence farmers. In February 2026(Q1) the proportion of the working age population in this category increased by 1.4 percentage point compared to the estimate of the same quarter in the previous year (February 2025). An important sub-category within available non-job seekers is discouraged jobseekers, these are people outside the labour force who did not “seek employment” for labour market-related reasons such as past failure to find a suitable job, lack of experience, required qualifications matching the person’s skills, lack of job opportunities in the area, being considered too young or too old by prospective employers. In February 2026 (Q1) (, the proportion of discouraged jobseekers within the working age population remained steady compared to the same quarter one year back (February 2025). Figure 2. 3 Trends of outside labour force rate and potential labour force Source: National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), Labour Force Survey (LFS 2021Q1 2022Q1 2023Q1 2024Q1 2025Q1 2026Q1 Percentage (%) 59.0 43.7 39.5 32.2 52.8 40.1 34.1 28.4 54.3 40.8 36.1 28.4 49.5 37.4 29.9 28.1 53.7 42.2 35.0 28.7 55.9 44.4 37.5 29.4 LU4 TRUR LU2 LU3 Outside labour force rate Available non-joseekers Discouraged jobseekers Percentage (%) 49.4 18.7 12.2 45.5 14.4 9.1 42.4 16.8 11.6 39.0 14.6 9.5 37.0 15.0 10.0 35.7 16.6 10.2 2021Q1 2022Q1 2023Q1 2024Q1 2025Q1 2026Q1

13 © NISR LFS 2026–Q1 Chapter Characteristics of population in labour force 3.1 Labour force participation among males and females The labour force participation rate, which is the ratio of the labour force to the working age population, increased by 1.3 percentage points in February 2026 (Q1) compared to February 2025 (Q1). The rate also increased among females and males in the same period. Furthermore, results show that labour force participation rate continued to be higher among males than females over time. In February 2026 (Q1), the gender gap in labour force participation rate was 12.8 percentage points and it remained stable compared to February 2025 (Q1). Figure 3. 1 Labour force participation rate by sex Source: National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), Labour Force Survey (LFS) 3.2 Labour force participation by education The labour force participation rate disaggregated by educational attainment, shows that individuals with higher levels of educational attainment exhibited higher participation rates over time compared to those with lower educational attainment. A comparison of February 2026 (Q1) with February 2025 (Q1) shows that the labour force participation rate increased among those who have not completed any level of education as well as among those with Primary and Lower secondary levels of education. On the other hand, the rate decreased among the holders of Upper secondary and university levels of education . Figure 3. 2 Labour force participation rate by highest completed level of education Source: National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), Labour Force Survey (LFS) 3 50.6 57.8 44.2 54.5 61.8 48.0 57.6 65.2 54.3 61.0 68.8 54.2 69.9 63.0 56.9 64.3 71.1 58.3 LFPR (%) Female Male Rwanda 2021Q1 2022Q1 2023Q1 2024Q1 2025Q1 2026Q1 50.6 51.2 48.2 33 58.9 54.5 54.4 37.3 66.5 83.9 57.6 52.6 40 86.7 61 57.2 56.9 70 88.4 60.5 60 45 70.2 88 63.0 63.8 62.3 43.7 73.3 89.7 64.3 65.6 63.5 46.0 70.7 86.9 LFPR (%) 2021Q1 2022Q1 2022Q1 2024Q1 2025Q1 2026Q1 Rwanda None Primary University Lower Secondary Upper Secondary

14 Labour Force Survey 2026 © NISR LFS 2026–Q1 3.3 Labour force participation by age group
In February 2026 (Q1), the labour force participation rate among youth aged 16 to 30 years old was 60.2%. This represents an increase of 1.7 percentage points compared to February 2025 (Q1). During this period, the rate remained stable among people aged 31 to 54 years old, while those aged 55 years old and above recorded an increase of 2.2 percentage points. Generally, the labour force participation rate was higher among population aged 31-54 years compared to the remaining age groups. Figure 3. 3 Labour force participation rate by age group Source: National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), Labour Force Survey (LFS) 3.4 Labour force participation by area of residence Labour force participation rate by area of residence (urban and rural) was higher in urban areas compared to rural areas. This disparity can be attributed to the diversity of job opportunities available in urban areas compared to rural areas and to the fact that most people in rural areas are involved in subsistence agriculture. In February 2026 (Q1), the gap in labour force participation rate between urban and rural areas decreased by 1.9 percentage points) compared to February 2025 (Q1). The comparison of February 2026 (Q1) and February 2025 (Q1) reveals that the labour force participation rate remained stable in urban areas, while it increased by 1.8 percentage points in rural areas. Figure 3. 4 Labour force participation rate by area of residence Source: National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), Labour Force Survey (LFS) 50.6 59 48.7 54.5 63.3 52.3 57.6 64.8 54.4 61 71 57.1 63 71.0 59.7 64.3 70.9 61.5 LFPR (%) Rwanda Rural Urban 2021Q1 2022Q1 2023Q1 2024Q1 2025Q1 2026Q1 50.6 46.1 64.9 27.8 49.5 71.4 28.2 54.5 57.6 53.9 71.4 31.9 63.0 58.5 76.7 40.4 64.3 60.2 77.0 42.6 61.0 57.2 74.4 36.3 LFPR (%) Rwanda 16-30 Years 31-54 Years 55+ Years 2021Q1 2022Q1 2023Q1 2024Q1 2025Q1 2026Q1