Foreign_Private_Capital_Rwanda_2010_.pdf

Type: Document | Status: ready

17 Quantitative Findings and the end for 2008 and 2009. The transactions include the retained earnings/loss, change in equity, loans disbursements and payments. The difference between two ends period stocks which is not explained by the flows of the year is due to other changes mainly valuation of equity and non-equity stocks.

50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 Direct Investment Portfolio Investment Other Investment Total Foreign Liability Stock 2008 Stock 2009

18 Foreign Private Investment and Investor’s Perceptions Report-2010 Source: Foreign Private Investment & Investor Perceptions Survey, 2010 Figure 5: Total stocks end 2008 & 2009 15

Figure 6: Total flows during 2008 & 2009 36.6
0.6
42.6
79.8
58.7
0.4
20.8
79.8

10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 Direct Investment Portfolio Investment Other Investment Total Inflow 2008 Inflow 2009 Source: Foreign Private Investment & Investor Perceptions Survey, 2010 3.1.1. Foreign Direct Investment An Investment is considered to be a Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) if non- resident entities or individuals hold 10% or more of the equity share in a resident entity , including Fellows Enterprises and Direct Investments of less than 10 percent . In 2008, the FDI flows were RWF
36,645.6 million, dominated by Equity capital and retained earnings accounting for 50.0 and 38.9 percent respectively. In 2009, FDI flows rose by 60.1 percent, from RWF 36,645.6 million in 2008 to RWF 58,688.7 million in 2009, the increment was mainly due to increase in l ong and short term l oans from related companies. Equity capital and retained earnings during the period under review, declined by over 50 percent mainly due to global financial crisis. Equity capital amounted to RWF 18,320.8 million in 2008 compared to RWF 8,219.2 million in 2009 while t he retained earnings decreased from RWF 14,268.4 million in 2008 to RWF 6,842.3 million in 2009. FDI stock which is composed of paid-up share-capital, share-premium, accumulated retained earnings, capital reserves and loans from related companies increased from RWF 72,022.4 million 3.1.1. Foreign Direct Investment An Investment is considered to be a Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) if non-resident entities or individuals hold 10% or more of the equity share in a resident entity, including Fellows Enterprises and Direct Investments of less than 10 percent. In 2008, the FDI flows were RWF 36,645.6 million, dominated by Equity capital and retained earnings accounting for 50.0 and 38.9 percent respectively. In 2009, FDI flows rose by 60.1 percent, from RWF 36,645.6 million in 2008 to RWF 58,688.7 million in 2009, the increment was mainly due to increase in long and short term loans from related companies. Equity capital and retained earnings during the period under review, declined by over 50 percent mainly due to global financial crisis. Equity capital amounted to RWF 18,320.8 million in 2008 compared to RWF 8,219.2 million in 2009 while the retained earnings decreased from RWF 14,268.4 million in 2008 to RWF 6,842.3 million in 2009. FDI stock which is composed of paid-up share-capital, share- premium, accumulated retained earnings, capital reserves and loans from related companies increased from RWF 72,022.4 million in 2008 to RWF 137,150.1 million recorded in 2009 mainly due to loans. On average, FDI accounted for over 50.0 percent of total liabilities. 3.1.2. Foreign Portfolio Investment Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) comprises ownership of investment of less than 10 percent excluding the fellow companies and direct investment enterprises. FPI stock slightly increased from RWF 3,357.3 million to RFW 5,209.4 million in 2008 and 2009 respectively, equivalent to 5.5 percent growth. On average, FPI accounted for 7.4 percent of the total liabilities.

3.1.3. Other investments Other investments cover mainly long term and short term loans from unrelated companies. In 2008, a total of RWF 35,422.0 million of loans were reported, 19 Quantitative Findings of which RWF 31,690.1 million (97.3 percent ) were long term and RWF 459.2 million (1.3 percent) short term loans in form of are trade credits. In 2009, RWF 80,880.6 million loans were reported of which RWF 62,332.6 million (48.6 percent) were long term and RWF 9,198.3 million (46.3 percent) were trade credits. On average, other investments accounted for 34.8 percent of the overall liabilities. 3.1.4. Foreign liabilities by sectors This section provides information on the stocks and flows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI), and other investments by sector. 3.1.4.1. Flows and stocks by sectors in 2008 International Standards Industrial Classification (ISIC) is composed by 18 sectors. During the period under review, 13 sectors had FAL. The sectors with no FAL were the human health and social work activities; Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities; education; arts, entertainment and recreation which are mainly government owned. The figure 7 below shows that in 2008, the highest inflows were recorded in information and Communication (58.0 percent), followed by finance and insurance (19.0 percent) and accommodation and food service (10.0 percent).In terms of stock the information and Communication accounted for 39.3 percent. This is in line with expanding market in information and Communication. Figure 7: Flows and stocks by sectors in 2008 (RWF millions) 3.1.4.2. Flows and stocks by sectors in 2009 In 2009, information and Communication remained the largest sector attracted 31.0 percent of total liabilities compared to 57.8 percent in 2008. Inflows to agriculture, forestry and fishing sector accounted for 22.3 percent up from 19.0 percent in 2008. 17

Figure 7: Flows and stocks by sectors in 2008 (RWF millions) Source: Foreign Private Investment & Investor Perceptions Survey, 2010 3.1.4.2. Flows and stocks by sectors in 2009

In 2009, information and Communication remained the largest sector attracted 31.0 percent of total liabilities compared to 57.8 percent in 2008. Inflows to agriculture, forestry and fishing sector accounted for 22.3 percent up from 19.0 percent in 2008. Sectoral performance o n stocks was dominated by the Financial and insurance with RWF 77,614.5 million mainly due to depreciation of RWF. Stock of foreign liabilities in i nformation and Communication amounted to RWF 76,338.8 million while wholesale & retail trade having
RWF 22,774.6 million. Source: Foreign Private Investment & Investor Perceptions Survey, 2010 20 Foreign Private Investment and Investor’s Perceptions Report-2010 Sectoral performance on stocks was dominated by the Financial and insurance with RWF 77,614.5 million mainly due to depreciation of RWF. Stock of foreign liabilities in information and Communication amounted to RWF 76,338.8 million while wholesale & retail trade having RWF 22,774.6 million. Source: Foreign Private Investment & Investor Perceptions Survey, 2010 Figure 8: Flows and stocks by sectors in 2009 (RWF million) Total inflows of foreign liabilities were mainly concentrated in ten countries accounting for 94.6 percent. South Africa, China and Libya were the leading source of inflows with 62.0 percent in 2008. In 2009, South Africa, China and Libya were in the lead accounting for 44.0 percent of total inflows. 17

Figure 7: Flows and stocks by sectors in 2008 (RWF millions) Source: Foreign Private Investment & Investor Perceptions Survey, 2010 3.1.4.2. Flows and stocks by sectors in 2009

In 2009, information and Communication remained the largest sector attracted 31.0 percent of total liabilities compared to 57.8 percent in 2008. Inflows to agriculture, forestry and fishing sector accounted for 22.3 percent up from 19.0 percent in 2008. Sectoral performance o n stocks was dominated by the Financial and insurance with RWF 77,614.5 million mainly due to depreciation of RWF. Stock of foreign liabilities in i nformation and Communication amounted to RWF 76,338.8 million while wholesale & retail trade having
RWF 22,774.6 million.

Quantitative Findings The stock of foreign liabilities mainly came from South Africa, China and Libya accounting for 43.3 percent and 35.2 percent in 2008 and 2009 respectively. Source: Foreign Private Investment & Investor Perceptions Survey, 2010 Source: Foreign Private Investment & Investor Perceptions Survey, 2010 Table 4: Countries of origin by Stock in 2008 & 2009 in RWF million 2008 2009 No Country Stocks %Share
Stocks %Share 1 South Africa 28,779.3
17.44 South Africa 33,808.5 15.14 2 China 21,019.0
12.74 China 22,624.3 10.13 3 Libya
18,421.7
11.16 Libya
22,251.6 9.97 4 Netherlands 12,707.8
7.70 Mauritius
20,036.9 8.98 5 Kenya 10,692.9
6.48 Netherlands 19,740.6 8.84 6 Mauritius
10,586.1
6.41 Luxembourg
17,244.6 7.72 7 Others 62,816.3
38.07 Others 87,533.7 39.21 8 Total
165,023.1
100.00 Total
223,240.1 100 Table 3: Inflows by origin in 2008 & 2009 in RFW million 2008 2009 No Country Flows % Share

Flows % Share 1 South Africa 20,863.9
26.1
South Africa 12,326.9 15.44 2 China 19,215.7
24.1
China 11,464.4 14.36 3 Libya
9,502.9
11.9
Libya 11,117.7 13.93 4 Netherlands 8,527.7
10.7
Mauritius 10,638.1 13.33 5 Kenya 4,414.4
5.5
Netherlands 7,349.9 9.21 6 Mauritius
3,519.8
4.4
Luxembourg 6,014.8 7.53 7 Others 13,794.1
17.3
Others 20,917.0 26.20 8 Total
79,838.4
100.0
Total 79,828.7 100

22 Foreign Private Investment and Investor’s Perceptions Report-2010 3.1.5. Foreign private investment stock by regional grouping With regard to foreign private investment stocks by regional economic grouping, the survey findings show that, except for OECD- Non EU countries, the stock of foreign private investment held by all regions recorded increases in 2009 compared with 2008. The European Union (EU) countries held the highest stock amounting to RWF 69.586 million in 2009, accounting for 31.2 percent of overall stock, up from 48,694 million in 2008(see Figure 9). COMESA (Non EAC) emerged second, followed by SADC (Non EAC & COMESA, ASIA, EAC and OECD (Non-EU). Investment from EAC almost doubled from RWF 212,241 million in 2008 to RWF 20,302 million in 2009. This suggests the positive effect of joining EAC. Overall diverse sources of foreign investments imply that the economy is less dependent on one region and hence less vulnerable. Figure 9: Foreign Private Investment Stock by Regional Grouping, 2008 and 2009 20

Figure 9: Foreign Private Investment Stock by Regional Grouping, 2008 and 2009 Source: Foreign Private Investment & Investor Perceptions Survey, 2010 3.1.6. Return on equity by sector 2008 and 2009 In the period under review the overall return on equity attributable to foreign direct and portfolio investors declined to 9.0 percent in 2009 from 28.0 percent in 2008 (See Table 5) . This situation was largely attributed to the decline in overall profit to RWF 7,916 million in 2009 from RWF 29,209 million in 2008 mainly due to lower economic activities as the result of the global financial and economic crisis. In addition increase green field investments in mining and financial sectors which had not yet realized their returns on investment, contributed to the decline in overall profitability. Table 5: Top profitable sectors 2008 2009 Sector Net Profit Equity ROE
Net Profit Equity ROE
Manufacturing 3,343 6,769 49% 3,177 8,205 39% Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1,013 4,103 25% 1,281 4,679 27% Wholesale and retail trade 155 8,022 2% 1,818 8,800 21% Information and communication 19,336 26,809 72% 3,184 17,104 19% Real estate activities 82 486 17% 85 478 18% Transportation and storage 226 454 50% 76 562 13% Accommodation and food service 698 8,444 8% 235 2,921 8% Financial and insurance 2,423 49,858 5% (2,444) 54,473 -4% Overall 29,209 105,477 28% 7,916 90,569 9% Source: Foreign Private Investment & Investor Perceptions Survey, 2010 Source: Foreign Private Investment & Investor Perceptions Survey, 2010