FOREIGN%20PRIVATE%20CAPITAL%20IN%20RWANDA%202021.pdf

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25 FOREIGN PRIVATE CAPITAL IN RWANDA | CENSUS REPORT – 2021 The analysis of ROE is linked to the incentive to invest in an economy. It is calculated as follow: Looking at the graph below, we see that in 2020 the ROE reduced to 9.7 percent, from 11.6 percent recorded in 2019, mainly due to the impact of Covid19 pandemic, however, Rwanda is still much higher above the world ROE average, beside the pandemic impact. Figure 10: ROE on FDI (Ratio in percentage) Source: FPC 2021 Census

3.4. Other Investments Other investment (OI) is a non-equity investment, not included in direct investment, portfolio investment, financial derivatives and employee stock options, and reserve assets. It is comprised of; loans, trade credit and advances, currency and deposits, and other accounts receivables/payables between unrelated entities. OI inflows decreased to $ 110.2 Million in 2020 from $151.0 Million recorded in 2019, which represent a decrease of 23.5 percent. In term of stocks, the OI rose by 13.5 percent, from $ 845.8 Million in 2019 to $ 960.3 Million registered in 2020.

26 FOREIGN PRIVATE CAPITAL IN RWANDA | CENSUS REPORT – 2021 Figure 11: OI Inflows and Stocks ($ Millions) Source: FPC 2021 Census 3.4.1. Other Investment Inflows and Stocks by Sector The major recipient sector of OI inflows during the year 2020 is the financial sector, which received $ 68.6 Million or 62.3 percent of total OI inflows, followed by electricity sector (19.2 percent) and manufacturing sector (9.0 percent), as shown in the table below. In terms of OI stock, the financial sector leads with a share accounting for 35.7 percent of total OI stock followed by manufacturing (16.2 percent), ICT (16.1 percent), agriculture (7 .0 percent) and the remaining sectors share 24.9 percent. T able 9: OI Inflows and Stocks by Sector of Activities ($ Millions) 2018 2019 2020 % Share 2018 2019 2020 % Share OI Inflows T otal 75.2 151.0 110.2 T otal 804.9 845.8 960.3 Financial 5.9 43.3 68.6 62.3 Financial 278.0 275.7 343.0 35.7 Electricity 18.2 - 21.2 19.2 Manufacturing 125.4 156.5 155.7 16.2 Manufacturing 34.2 42.1 9.9 9.0 ICT 151.2 152.6 154.9 16.1 ICT 1.3 1.4 2.3 2.1 Agriculture 67. 8 67. 2 67. 3 7.0 Others 15.7 64.2 8.2 7.4 Others 182.5 193.9 239.5 24.9 Source: FPC 2021 Census 27 FOREIGN PRIVATE CAPITAL IN RWANDA | CENSUS REPORT – 2021 3.4.2. OI Inflows and Stock by origin In terms of the origin of OI inflows, Mauritius leads with a share of 22.6 percent, mainly invested in financial, manufacturing and education sectors. OI from USA follows with a share of 21.5 percent, by Netherlands (13.7 percent) and IFC (9.6 percent), as shown in the table below. Regarding OI stocks, PTA remained the major lender with a share of 13.0 percent, followed by IFC (11.2 percent), United Kingdom (8.9 percent), Germany (6.7 percent) and European Investment Bank (5.8 percent). T able 10: OI Inflows and Stocks by Origin ($ Millions)   2018 2019 2020 % Share 2018 2019 2020 % Share OI Inflows OI Stocks T otal 75.2 151.0 110.2 T otal 804.9 845.8 960.3 Mauritius 0.62 - 24.9 22.6 PTA 108.3 118.3 126.6 13.2 USA 2.0 0.003 23.6 21.5 UK 67. 3 86.6 86.7 9.0 Netherlands 3.9 - 15.1 13.7 IFC 68.3 63.7 67. 2 7.0 IFC - - 10.5 9.6 Germany 70.2 65.1 65.1 6.8 Nigeria 0.02 - 7. 8 7. 1 EIB 47. 1 56.5 56.5 5.9 ADB 0.58 0.14 7.0 6.4 Kenya 30.3 39.9 39.9 4.2 PTA 1.3 12.4 4.5 4.1 USA 15.9 15.6 39.6 4.1 UAE 13.5 3.9 4.5 4.1 Netherlands 15.6 10.2 25.8 2.7 others 53.3 134.5 12.3 11.1 Others 353.6 361.4 453.1 47. 2 Source: FPC 2021 Census 3.5. Portfolio Investment The PI is composed of tradable equity investments with a shareholding of less than 10 percent of the company’s equity. The PI recorded inflows of $ 2.0 Million in 2020, up from $ 0.2 Million recorded in 2019, mainly invested in financial and manufacturing sectors. In term of stocks, the financial sector is the major recipient sector of PI accounting for 53.3 percent of total PI stock as of end 2020 followed by manufacturing sector (44.6 percent), electricity sector (1.8 percent) and ICT sector (0.3 percent). 28 FOREIGN PRIVATE CAPITAL IN RWANDA | CENSUS REPORT – 2021 Figure 12: PI Inflows and Stocks ($ Millions) Source: FPC 2021 Census

29 FOREIGN PRIVATE CAPITAL IN RWANDA | CENSUS REPORT – 2021 CHAPTER 4. PRIVATE SECTOR EXTERNAL DEBT (PSED) In this part, we discuss the non-equity investment inflows and stocks, including the non-equity that are considered in the direct investment and the non-equity from other investment, which respectively represent the loan from related and unrelated entities. 4.1. Private Sector External Debt Trend In 2020, the PSED stocks recorded an increase of 10.4 percent standing at an amount of $ 2,138.2 Million compared to $ 1,936.8 Million, registered in 2019. In term of the Gross Domestic Production (GDP), the PSED stocks record a share of 20.7 percent of GDP in 2020 and which is still around average of 18.7 percent of GDP , of the last 5 years. On the other side, the total PSED stocks contribute only 27 .6 percent of the total country External Debt Stocks, which is less than 72.4 percent share for the Non- PSED. 30 FOREIGN PRIVATE CAPITAL IN RWANDA | CENSUS REPORT – 2021 Figure 13: Private External Debt T rend: Ratios & percent Changes Source: FPC 2021 Census 4.2. Private Sector External Debt by Maturity and Type In 2020, the PSED: Long-term stocks increased by 11.6 percent, standing at an amount of $ 1,987 .6 Million, compared to $ 1,780.5 Million, registered in 2019. This results to a share of the PSED: Long-term stocks of 92.4 percent of the total PSED stocks. On the other hand, in 2020 the PSED: Short-term stocks reduced by 3.6 percent, amounting at $ 150.6 Million, from $ 156.3 Million of 2019, mainly due to lower net inflows caused by the Covid19 pandemic. Figure 14: External Debt Stock by sector and maturity in Million USD Source: FPC 2021 Census 31 FOREIGN PRIVATE CAPITAL IN RWANDA | CENSUS REPORT – 2021 4.3. Private Sector External Debt by Investor Relationship In 2020, the PSED inflows from related and unrelated entities reduced by 43.3 percent and 27 .0 percent respectively, due to the Covid19 pandemic, as shown in the table below. The PSED inflows from related entities amount at $ 94.4 Million, from $ 166.5 Million recorded in 2019, and stand at a share of 46.2 percent of the total PSED flows. On the other hand, the PSED inflows from unrelated parties recorded a share 53.8 percent of the total PSED inflows, and amount at $ 110.2 Million, as discussed in above chapters. As the results, the total PSED stocks from related parties keep recording the highest share of 56.1 percent of the total, compared to 43.9 percent registered by the PSED stocks from unrelated parties, as shown in the table below. T able 11: Private debt inflows by 2020 in Million USD 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Change % Share Inflows PSED from Related 132.2 124.8 149.9 166.5 94.4 -43.3 46.2 PSED from Unrelated 195.9 95.4 75.2 151.0 110.2 - 2 7.0 53.8 T otal PSED Inflows 328.1 220.2 225.1 317 .5 204.6 -35.5 Stocks PSED from Related 8 07.7 890.7 1,014.1 1,126.2 1,199.7 6.5 56.1 PSED from Unrelated 752.2 730.0 760.3 810.7 938.6 15.8 43.9 T otal PSED Stocks 1,559.9 1,620.7 1,774.3 1,936.8 2,138.2 10.4 Source: FPC 2021 Census 4.4 Private Sector External Debt by Sector In 2020, the PSED inflows from the financial sector recorded the lion share of 34.3 percent of the total inflows, compared to the previous year where the ICT sector had the largest share of 32.1 percent. The Electricity sector follows with a share of 17 .8 percent, followed by the ICT (15.8 percent) and agriculture (15.2 percent). T able 12: Private Sector External Debt by Sector   2019 2020   Inflows % Change % Share T otal PSED Inflows 317 .5 204.6 -35.5 Financial 44.1 70.1 59.0 34.3 Electricity 50.9 36.4 -28.4 17. 8 ICT 101.8 32.3 -68.2 15.8 Agriculture 2.3 31.2 1,241 15.2 Manufacturing 43.6 1 7.6 -59.6 8.6 T ourism 2.1 4.2 98.3 2.0 Wholesale 66.8 2.0 - 97.0 1.0 Others 5.9 10.8 84.9 5.3 Source: FPC 2021 Census 32 FOREIGN PRIVATE CAPITAL IN RWANDA | CENSUS REPORT – 2021 4.5 Private Sector External Debt by Source Country The PSED inflows from Mauritius took the largest share of 31.4 percent, mainly invested in ICT , electricity, manufacturing and agriculture sectors, followed by USA (22.0 percent) and Netherlands (7 .4 percent), as shown in the table below. T able 13: Private Sector External Debt by Source Country in Million USD   2019 2020 Inflows % Change % Share T otal PSED Inflows 317 .5 204.6 -35.5 Mauritius 90.9 64.2 -29.4 31.4 USA 0.1 45.1 100.0 22.0 Netherlands 0.01 15.2 100.0 7.4 UK 72.2 12.4 -82.9 6.0 IFC - 10.5 100.0 5.1 Nigeria 23.0 7. 8 -66.1 3.8 Others 131.4 49.5 -62.3 24.2 Source: FPC 2021 Census 33 FOREIGN PRIVATE CAPITAL IN RWANDA | CENSUS REPORT – 2021 CHAPTER 5. FOREIGN AFFILIATES STATISTICS
This part discusses other findings related to investments in Rwanda. It includes employment and compensation of employees, entity turnovers, and the contribution to the external trade flows from the private companies that carry out international transactions. 5.1. Compensation of Employees The total compensation of employees paid has decreased by -61.2 percent, amounting to $188.0 Million in 2020 from $ 484.8 Million recorded in 2019. The manufacturing sector, together with the financial, mining and T ransportation sectors, had the highest compensation of employees, overall totaling to 62.0 percent share. 34 FOREIGN PRIVATE CAPITAL IN RWANDA | CENSUS REPORT – 2021 T able 14 Compensation of Employees by sector ($ Millions) Sectors 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 % change % Share Financial 164.9 90.3 108.4 118.9 100.4 102.3 36.1 -64.7 19.2 ICT 15.8 41.7 36.2 39.8 63 56.1 10.5 -81.4 5.6 Manufacturing 24 1 1 7. 8 114.8 127 .1 1 3 7.4 150.3 59.0 -60.7 31.4 Mining 2.2 4.6 98.2 1 07. 1 96.4 81.2 3.3 -96.0 1.7 T ourism 6 31.9 1.5 1.6 2.9 3.1 3.9 24.8 2.1 T ransportation 40 5.9 0.3 0.3 3.4 2 21.4 971.3 11.4 Wholesale 9.6 11 10 10.7 12.7 14.7 8.4 -42.8 4.5 Other sectors 55.8 28.3 41 44.7 62.4 75.1 45.4 -39.6 24.1 T otal 318.3 331.5 410.4 450.2 478.6 484.8 188.0 -61.2 Source: FPC 2021 Census In term of volume, the FPC’s contribution to job creation, registered a decrease of -56.2 percent totaling to 33,367 from 76,255 employees (in 2019). T able 15: FPC Census Employment by Position in 2020 POSITION FOREIGN ST FOREIGN LT LOCAL TOTAL Managerial 29 697 1,606 2,332 Administrative 11 152 4,921 5,083 Skilled T echnician 40 768 7,7 7 1 8,579 Casual 0 5 17 ,368 1 7, 3 74 Total 80 1,622 31,666 33,367 Source: FPC 2021 Census By gender, females constitute 59.2 percent of the total casual employment compared to 40.8 percent of males. For other employment categories males dominate. Figure 15: Distribution of Employment by Gender in 2020 Source: FPC 2021 Census 35 FOREIGN PRIVATE CAPITAL IN RWANDA | CENSUS REPORT – 2021 5.2. Turnover The private entities included in the FPC census registered a total turnover of $ 2,297 .1 Million in 2020, which is a decrease of 17 .0 percent, compared to $ 2,768.9 Million registered in 2019. The manufacturing, financial and wholesale and retail trade sector occupied the higher combined share of 65.0 percent. In FPC 2021, the construction, transportation, manufacturing and mining sectors registered an increase in turnover of 343.6 percent, 195.2 percent, 23.9 percent and 13.3 percent. However, these above were outweighed by the decrease in other sectors like financial, wholesale and retail trade, ICT , agriculture and tourism that had a decrease of 22.1 percent, 11.3 percent, 79.2 percent, 55.6 percent and 65.6 percent. The total turnovers of FPC companies account for 22.2 percent ratio of GDP in 2020, from 26.7 percent registered in 2019, pointing to the impact of Covid19 pandemic. T able 16: FPC 2021 Entity T urnovers by Sector ($ Millions) Sector 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 % change % share Agriculture 67. 9 135.8 181.6 173.4 161.6 71.8 -55.6 3.1 Education 6.3 9.3 8.2 10.2 31.8 2.2 -93.0 0.1 Construction 68.4 3 7. 8 24.4 24.2 29.6 131.3 343.6 5.7 Financial 441.4 450.0 4 9 7.7 522.6 5 47.0 426.4 -22.1 18.6 ICT 195.1 376.0 430.4 472.3 546.5 113.9 -79.2 5.0 Manufacturing 286.2 290.7 300.3 498.8 589.4 730.4 23.9 31.8 Mining 62.3 64.7 66.5 79.8 70.3 79.7 13.3 3.5 T ourism 34.3 55.9 67.6 63.7 73.2 23.0 -68.6 1.0 T ransportation 3 7. 9 64.2 53.2 50.8 62.9 185.7 195.2 8.1 Wholesale 334.8 251.6 253.5 316.9 3 7 7.7 334.9 -11.3 14.6 Other sectors 26.1 398.0 200.7 233.8 278.9 198.0 -29.0 8.6 Total 1,560.7 2,134.0 2,084.1 2,446.5 2,768.9 2,297 .1 -17.0   % to GDP 18.3 24.5 22.5 25.4 26.7 22.2     Source: FPC 2021 Census 5.3. Contribution to International Trade The FPC related companies exported goods and services worth $ 92.6 Million in 2020, representing a 6.8 percent of total exports and 0.9 percent of GDP . Exports from wholesale, mining, manufacturing and financial services sectors dominated. On the other hand, imports of goods and services by these FPC companies reached to $ 1,236.7 Million in 2020, representing 35.5 percent of the total country’s imports of goods and services, and 12.0 percent of GDP . These imports were mainly driven by imports of goods by the construction sector, followed by imports of manufacturing and T rade sectors. 36 FOREIGN PRIVATE CAPITAL IN RWANDA | CENSUS REPORT – 2021 As a result, the FPC companies recorded a trade deficit of $ 1,144.0 Million in 2020, representing 23.6 percent of the total country’s trade deficit in goods and services and 11.1 percent of GDP . FPC companies’ exports cover 7 .5 percent of imports, indicating the low contribution of foreign investment to an increase in domestic production and exports. T able 17 FPC 2021 Exports – Imports of Goods and Service in 2020 ($ Millions) Sector Exports Imports Net Exports Agriculture 2.3 22.5 -20.2 Education 0.0 0.1 -0.1 Construction 5.6 635.6 -630.0 Financial 11.2 55.4 -44.2 ICT 9.9 23.3 -13.4 Manufacturing 22.2 169.4 -147. 3 Mining 25.9 48.0 -22.2 T ourism 0.0 11.8 -11.8 T ransportation 0.4 7.6 -7. 1 Wholesale 10.7 138.3 -1 2 7.7 Other sectors 4.5 124.6 -120.0 T otal 92.6 1,236.7 -1,144.0 % of total trade 6.8 35.5 -23.6 % GDP 0.9 12.0 -11.1 Source: FPC 2021 Census