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STATISTICAL RELEASE
In reply please quote:
Our ref: NBS/S.40/21/488 Date: February 2025.
EXPORT AND IMPORT PRICE INDICES FOR THE QUARTER ENDING DECEMBER 2024
Background notes
Definition The Export and Import Price Indices (XMPI) are average measures of price changes of goods exported outside or imported into the country. The XMPI are used in various areas to do analysis such as Terms of Trade (ToT) which is the ratio of Export Price Index (XPI) to the Import Price Index (MPI).
The Export and Import Price Indices, are compiled on a quarterly basis, cover both exports and imports of merchandise trade. These quarterly specifications based on XMPI have been compiled and disseminated since the first quarter of 2013 up to the last qua rter of 2022 with reference base period being the quarter ending December 2017. The updated XMPI has the first quarter of 2023 as the reference base period. The updated weights and the product sample for the XMPI used customs data for the years 2019 to 20 21. Price collection for the updated XMPI was carried out during the period of November to December 2023. This allowed for the compilation of the XMPI for the first quarter of 2023 using the new product and enterprise samples.
Weights and a reference period The XMPI weights are based on values of imported and exported commodities for the period 2019 to 2021. A top-down approach was taken in the determination of the index structure, composition and the allocation of the weights. The aim was to maximise the indirect representation of un-priced commodities in the index, through a chain of representation. The price reference period is the quarter ending March 2023.
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Product Classification
The products are classified according to the United Nations Harmonized Commodity Description
and Coding System (HS). The HS is an international nomenclature for the classification of
products.
Methodology
Selection of items: In the selection of items, a top - down procedure was applied in three
steps. First, the major 2 -digit HS chapters contributing to the total value of imports in terms
of the sum of values for the year 2019 to 2021 were selected for direct inclusion in the indices.
As a result, 16 chapters (2 -digit HS codes) were selected for imports and 12 chapters for
exports out of 99 chapters representing 80 percent or more depending on the degree of
concentration. Secondly, the process was repeated a t 4 -digit level of HS; 76 items were
selected for imports and 19 items were selected for exports. Finally, the procedure was
repeated at the 8 -digit level of the HS by selecting 165 items for imports and 25 items for
exports. The result of these procedures was the derivation of the structure and composition of
the indices.
The XMPI has incorporated a number of methodological improvements including the use of
geometric means for compiling elementary index aggregates, the use of an improved index
compilation system, and improved procedures for collecting and processing prices data. The
Laspeyres index formula was used to compute higher level aggregates for the XMPI. Chart 1
depicts trends of XPI and MPI in the selected quarters
Chart 1: Quarterly Export and Import Price Indices (Q1 2023=100)
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Note: Q1=January-March, Q2=April-June, Q3=July-September, Q4=October-December
Export Price Index
Structure of the XPI
The XPI covers 12 chapters out 99 chapters, namely; (i) Fish and crustaceans, molluscs and
other aquatic invertebrates, (ii) Edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers, (iii) Edible fruits
and nuts, peel of citrus fruit or melons, (iv) Coffee, tea, mate and spices, (v) Cereals, (vi) Oil
seed, oleaginous fruits; miscellaneous grains, seeds and fruit; industrial or medicinal plants;
straw and fodder, (vii) Tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes, (viii) Ores, slag and
ash, (ix) Salt; sulphur; earths and stone; plastering materials; lime and cement, (x) Cotton,
(xi) Wadding, felt & nonwoven; yarns; twine, cordage, etc and (xii) Natural or cultured pearls,
precious stones and metals, coin, etc. The sample of twelve chapters constitutes 80 percent
of the total value of exports, aggregated from 2019 to 2021.
Quarterly Export Price Index
The overall Export Price Index during the quarter ending December 2024 increased by 1.0
percent to 116.8 from 115.6 recorded in the preceding quarter. This development was largely
attributed to the increase in prices of gold and cashew nuts. Likewise, when compared to the
similar quarter in 2023, the index increased by 7.6 percent (Table 1).
Table 1: Quarterly Export Price Indices by Chapter (Q1 2023= 100)
Note: Q1=January-March, Q2=April-June, Q3=July-September, Q4=October-December
Sub-indices by Chapter This section gives detailed analysis on the movements of export price indices by chapter:
Weight
Q4
2023
Q1
2024
Q2
2024
Q3
2024
Q4
2024
100.0
108.5
110.5
113.6
115.6
116.8
1.0
7.6
03
Fish & crustacean, mollusk & other
3.4
120.8
124.1
129.8
131.9
128.2
-2.8
6.2
07
Edible vegetables and certain roots and
4.8
112.5
119.2
121.3
120.2
119.8
-0.3
6.5
08
Edible fruit and nuts; peel of citrus fruit
6.6
106.1
102.5
105.9
107.1
113.2
5.7
6.6
09
Coffee, tea, mate and spices
4.8
111.3
112.0
113.3
118.9
120.8
1.6
8.5
10
Cereals
4.7
105.8
107.7
110.8
113.4
110.2
-2.8
4.2
12
Oil seed, oleagi fruits; miscell grain, seed,
4.7
106.5
108.4
111.7
114.8
113.4
-1.2
6.5
24
Tobacco and manufactured tobacco
3.5
118.3
113.7
117.9
120.7
122.6
1.6
3.7
25
Salt; sulphur; earth & ston; plastering
2.2
112.8
115.0
116.2
119.5
122.0
2.1
8.2
26
Ores, slag and ash
3.6
107.2
109.1
111.0
111.9
112.8
0.8
5.2
52
Cotton
2.0
88.7
90.5
88.9
83.5
84.7
1.4
-4.5
56
Wadding, felt & nonwoven; yarns; twine,
0.6
106.0
107.8
111.9
114.5
116.0
1.3
9.4
71
Natural/cultured pearls, prec stones &
59.0
105.9
116.0
123.8
130.7
137.5
5.2
29.8
%
Change
same
quarter
last year
HS Code Description
% Change
Previous
Quarter
Overall
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Chapter 03: Fish and crustacean, molluscs and other aquatic invertebrate The index for “Fish and crustacean, molluscs and other aquatic invertebrates” which accounts for 3.4 percent of the total weight, decreased by 2.8 percent to 128.2 in the fourth quarter of 2024 from 131.9 recorded in the third quarter. The performance was largely attributed to the decrease in the prices of seafood, resulting from both increased production and declining demand from major importing countries, including the United States of America (USA). Nonetheless, when compared to the corresponding quarter in 2023, the index increa sed by 6.2 percent.
Chapter 07: Edible vegetables and certain roots and tuber This chapter contributed 4.8 percent of the total weight of exported commodities. During the fourth quarter of 2024, the index decreased slightly by 0.3 percent to 119.8 from 120.2 that was recorded in the previous quarter. However, when compared to the similar quarter in 2023, the index increased by 6.5 percent.
Chapter 08: Edible fruits and nuts, peel of citrus fruit or melons During the fourth quarter 2024, the export price index for “Edible fruits and nuts”, which accounts for 6.6 percent of the total weight, increased by 5.7 percent to 113.2 from 107.1 recorded in the previous quarter. This was largely associated with the inc rease in prices of cashew nuts in the world market due to surge in demand for the festive season, especially in regions like India, China, USA and Europe. Likewise, when compared to the similar quarter in 2023, the index has increased by 6.6 percent.
Chapter 09: Coffee, tea, mate and spices This chapter contributed 4.8 percent of the total weight of exported commodities. During the fourth quarter of 2024, the index for “coffee, tea, mate and spices'' increased by 1.6 percent to 120.8 from 118.9 recorded in the previous quarter. The performance was attributed to the increase in the world market prices of both coffee and tea, driven by supply constraints (for coffee) and low tea production from the South Asia producers. Likewise, when compared to the similar quarter in 2023, the index increased by 8.5 percent.
Chapter 10: Cereals The export price index for “cereal” accounts for 4.7 percent of the total weight of exports. During the fourth quarter of 2024, the index decreased by 2.8 percent to 110.2 from 113.4
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recorded in the preceding quarter. The performance was largely attributed to the decrease in the price of wheat in the world market resulting from solid harvests and favorable growing conditions. However, when compared to a similar quarter in 2023, the index increased by 4.2 percent.
Chapter 12: Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits; miscellaneous grains, seeds and fruit; industrial or medicinal plants; straw and fodder This chapter accounts for 4.7 percent of the total weight. During the fourth quarter of 2024, the index for “Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits; miscellaneous grains, seeds and fruit; industrial or medicinal plants; straw and fodder” decreased by 1.2 percent to 113.4 from 114.8 recorded in the previous quarter. The decline was mainly explained by the fall in prices of sesame seeds in the world market, driven by oversupply in the market due to increased production in Brazil, India and Pakistan. However, when compared to the corresponding quarter in the previous year, the index has increased by 6.5 percent.
Chapter 24: Tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes This chapter accounts for 3.5 percent of the total weight. During the fourth quarter 2024, the index increased by 1.6 percent to 122.6 from 120.7 recorded in the previous quarter. The performance was associated with the rise in the prices of tobacco in the world market, driven by supply chain disruptions and increased cost of raw materials. Similarly, when compared to the similar quarter in 2023, the index increased by 3.7 percent.
Chapter 25: Salt; sulphur; earth and stone; plastering material; lime and cement The export price index for “Salt; sulphur; earth and stone; plastering material; lime and cement”, accounting for 2.2 percent of the total weight, increased by 2.1 percent to 122.0 in the fourth quarter of 2024 from 119.5 recorded in the previous quarter. The performance was largely driven by the increase in overall prices of limestone, attributed to the surge in demand from the construction industry. Likewise, when compared to the corresponding quarter in 2023, the index increased by 8.2 percent.
Chapter 26: Ores, slag and ash The export price index for “Ores, slag and ash”, which accounts for 3.6 percent of the total weight, increased marginally by 0.8 percent to 112.8 in the fourth quarter 2024 from 111.9 recorded in the preceding quarter. Likewise, when compared to the similar quarter in 2023, the index increased by 5.2 percent.
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Chapter 52: Cotton During the fourth quarter 2024, the export price index for “Cotton”, which accounts for 2.0 percent of the total weight, increased by 1.4 percent to 84.7 compared to 83.5 recorded in the third quarter 2024. The performance was mainly explained by the increase in the world market price of cotton due to supply constraints associated with weather disruptions, especially in the United States of America, the major cotton producer. Nonetheless, when compared to the similar quarter in 2023, the index decreased by 4.5 percent.
Chapter 56: Wadding, felt & nonwoven; yarns; twine, cordage, etc. The chapter contributes 0.6 percent of the total weight of exported commodities. During the fourth quarter 2024, the index increased by 1.3 percent to 116.0 from 114.5 recorded in the previous quarter. The performance resulted from the increase in prices of sisal rope attributed to rising demand for sustainable products. Likewise, when compared to the similar quarter in 2023, the index increased by 9.4 percent.
Chapter 71: Natural or cultured pearls, precious stones and metals, coins etc.
The export price index for “Natural or cultured pearls, precious stones and metals, coin etc”,
which accounts for 59.0 percent of the total weight of exported commodities, increased by 5.2
percent to 137.5 in the fourth quarter of 2024 from 130.7 recorded in the preceding quarter .
The performance was largely associated with the increase in the global prices of gold, amid
geopolitical conflicts, which increased its safe-haven appeal and increased demand from
central banks. Correspondingly when compared to t he similar quarter in 2023, the index
increased by 29.8 percent.
Import Price Index
Structure of the MPI The MPI covers 16 chapters out of 99 chapters, namely; (i) Cereals, (ii) Animal fats and oil & their cleavage product, (iii) Sugars and sugar confectionery, (iv) Mineral fuels, oils and product of their distillation, (v) Pharmaceutical products, (vi) Fertilisers, (vii) Miscellaneous chemical products, (viii) Plastics and articles thereof, (ix) Rubber and articles thereof, (x) Other made up textile articles; sets; worn clothing etc, (xi) Iron and steel, (xii) Articles of iron and steel, (xiii) Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and machinery appliance, parts, (x iv) Electrical machinery equipment parts thereof; sound recorder etc, (xv) Vehicles other than railway or
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transport way roll-stock, parts and accessories and (xvi) Optical, photographic, cinematographic, measuring, checking, precision, etc. The sampled sixteen chapters constitute 80 percent of total value of imports aggregated from 2019 to 2022.
Quarterly Import Price Index
The overall Import Price Index for the quarter ending December 2024 decreased marginally by 0.4 percent to 103.9 from 104.2 recorded in the preceding quarter. This development was mainly driven by decrease in the global market prices of mineral fuels and cereals. Nonetheless, when compared to the same quarter in 2023 the index increased by 2.0 percent. (Table 2).
Table 2: Quarterly Import Price Indices by Chapter (Q1 2023= 100)
Note: Q1=January-March, Q2=April-June, Q3=July-September, Q4=October-December
Sub-indices by Chapter This section analyses movements of import price indices for each chapter.
Chapter 10: Cereals This chapter accounts for 3.2 percent of the total weight. During the fourth quarter of 2024, the import price index for “Cereals” decreased by 3.6 percent to 86.7 from 90.0 recorded in the previous quarter 2024. The performance was largely associated with the decrease in prices of wheat owing to increased production in major importing countries including China, the United States of America and Russia. Similarly, when compared to the corresponding quarter last year, the index decreased by 9.3 percent.
Weight Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 100.0 101.8 101.0 102.7 104.2 103.9 -0.4 2.0 10 Cereals 3.2 95.6 91.0 91.4 90.0 86.7 -3.6 -9.3 15 Animal/veg fats & oil & their cleavage products; etc 2.7 107.8 109.8 112.7 114.1 113.9 -0.2 5.7 17 Sugars and sugar confectionery 1.6 109.6 118.2 120.3 121.5 123.8 1.9 12.9 27 Mineral fuels, oils & product of their distillation; etc 23.8 95.3 85.4 89.7 80.1 74.4 -7.1 -21.9 30 Pharmaceutical products 5.3 109.8 111.8 113.4 114.1 113.0 -1.0 2.9 31 Fertilisers 2.4 99.1 82.2 81.7 86.0 91.1 5.9 -8.0 38 Miscellaneous chemical products 3.3 86.8 84.4 86.0 88.8 87.1 -1.9 0.4 39 Plastics and articles thereof 7.1 80.7 87.9 89.0 88.0 85.9 -2.4 6.5 40 Rubber and articles thereof 2.5 98.9 100.6 102.2 107.0 106.2 -0.7 7.4 63 Other made up textile articles; sets; worn clothing etc 1.9 106.9 107.2 109.3 113.7 110.8 -2.6 3.6 72 Iron and steel 7.0 113.6 105.9 106.4 110.5 112.0 1.4 -1.4 73 Articles of iron and steel 4.4 105.7 106.0 106.1 109.1 111.4 2.2 5.4 84 Nuclear reactors, boilers, mchy & mech appliance; parts 13.6 107.2 108.5 112.8 118.8 117.8 -0.9 9.9 85 Electrical mchy equip parts thereof; sound recorder etc 8.3 105.2 106.4 105.6 103.4 101.9 -1.4 -3.2 87 Vehicles o/t railw/tranw rool-stock, pts & accessories 10.8 103.7 106.5 109.5 115.2 117.8 2.3 13.6 90 Optical, photo, cine, meas, checking, precision, etc 2.1 103.0 104.9 106.7 107.7 108.3 0.5 5.1 % Change same quarter last year HS Code Description % Change Previous Quarter Overall