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Tourist Expenditure Estimation Tourists’ expenditure in the country is estimated using Tourist Expenditure Model that was developed during the comprehensive International Visitors’ Exit Survey conducted in 2001. The model uses the following variables in estimating tourists’ expenditure: average expenditure by travel arrangement by purpose of visit, proportion of international tourist arrivals by travel arrangement and average length of stay. Data on average expenditure by travel arrangement by purpose of visit, proportion of international tourist arrivals by travel arrangement and average length of stay were obtained from the survey, while the number of international tourist arrivals is obtained from the Immigration Department.
The model is depicted in the following equation: Ev= (E pχ V pχT) + (E npχ V npχT)
Whereby: Ev=Total tourist expenditure in Tanzania.
Ep= Average package tour expenditure per visitor per night, derived from the survey.
Enp = Average Non-package tour expenditure per visitor per night, derived from the survey.
Vp = Number of international tourist arrivals under package travel arrangement (The number of international tourist arrivals as recorded by the Immigration Department, adjusted into package 48 visitors by using package tour arrangement ratio derived from the survey).
Vnp = Number of international tourist arrivals under Non-package travel arrangement (The number of international tourist arrivals as recorded by the Immigration Department, proportionately adjusted into non-package visitors using the non-package tour arrangement ratio derived from the survey).
T = Average length of stay, derived from the survey.
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The Simplified Model
Country
of
Residence
Purpose
of Visit
Total number
of International
Tourist
Arrivals
(sourced from
Immigration
Dept)
Number of
International
Tourist Arrivals
by Travel
arrangement
Average
length
of Stay
Average
Expenditure per
Visitor per Night
Total
Expenditure
Package
Non
Package
Package (VP) Non- package (VNP) (T) (EP) (ENP) (EV) Business
Holiday
VFR
Other
Procedure and assumptions used for the estimation of tourist expenditure: (i) Calculation of average package tour expenditure involved deduction of estimated cost for international fare to Tanzania and the commission accruing to an international tour wholesaler. Information on cost of international transport from source markets was updated using current information gathered from international carriers that bring visitors to Tanzania;
(ii) It is assumed that 10 percent of the value of the package is retained by the international tour wholesaler to meet overhead costs and commission. The assumption based on a study on Tourism Earnings in Tanzania that was conducted in 2000;
(iii) Immigration data on the number of international tourist arrivals by purpose of visit are distributed according to the package and non-package arrangements using the travel arrangement ratios, as established in the survey;
(iv) In order to be able to estimate annual tourists’ expenditure, the survey’s results is applied to the total number of international tourist arrivals, as recorded by the Immigration Department. It is worth mentioning that given the homogeneity nature of the visitors’ characteristics, the information collected during the two weeks survey is justifiable to represent the total population;
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(v) The Immigration Department also provided the number of international tourist arrivals for Zanzibar that enabled the estimation of tourists’ expenditure for Zanzibar; and
(vi) The average length of stay used is between one and twenty-eight nights.
5.7
EXPORT AND IMPORT PRICE INDICES (XMPI)
The Export and Import Price Indices (XMPI) are measures of price changes of goods imported
into or exported outside the country. The XMPI are used to analyse Terms of Trade (ToT) which
is the ratio of Export Price Index (XPI) to the Import Price Index (MPI).
The Import and Export Prices (XMPI) is managed in collaboration with three institutions, that’s namely as National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Bank of Tanzania (BOT) and Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA).
Weights and a reference period The XMPI weights are based on values of imported and exported commodities for the years 2006 to 2010. A top-down approach is taken in the determination of the index structure and composition and the allocation of the weights. The aim is to maximize the indirect representation of un-priced commodities in the index, through a chain of representation.
Export Price Indices (XPI) The XPI covers 8 chapters out 99 chapters, namely; (i) Fish and crustacean, mollusk and other aquatic invertebrate, (ii) Edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers, (iii) Edible fruits or melons, (iv) Coffee, tea, mate and spices, (v) Tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes, (vi) Ores, slag and ash, (vii) cotton and (viii) Natural/cultured pearls, precious stones and metals, coin, etc. The sampled eight chapters constitute 80 percent of total exports.
Import Price Index (MPI)
The MPI covers 12 chapters out of 99 chapters, namely; (i) Cereals, (ii) Animal fats & oil & their
cleavage product, (iii) Mineral fuels, oils & product of their distillation, (iv) Pharmaceutical
products, (v) Fertilizers, (vi) Plastics and articles thereof, (vii) Rubber and articles thereof, (viii)
Iron and steel, (ix) Articles of iron and steel, (x) Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and
machinery appliance, parts, (xi) Electrical machinery equipments parts thereof; sound recorder
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etc, and (xii) Vehicles other than railway/transport way rool-stock, parts and accessories. The sampled twelve chapters constitute 80 percent of total imports for the years 2006 - 2010.
Terms of Trade (TOT) The term of trade index is the ratio of export price index to import price index. A rise in this ratio indicates that the terms of trade have moved in favour of Tanzania and vice versa.
5.7.1 Objectives and uses of the XMPI (i) The Export Price Index (XPI) aims at providing an overall measure of pure price changes (in TShs) of domestically produced goods exported to other countries; (ii) The Import Price Index (MPI) intends to measure price changes (in TShs) of goods purchased from other countries; and (iii) The XMPI are for analyzing Terms of Trade (ToT) which is the ratio of Export Price Index (XPI) to the Import Price Index (MPI).
Uses of XMPI (i) They are used to analyze the terms of trade and changes in traded volumes; (ii) Government economic policy; and (iii) Analysis of competitiveness, conclusion of trade contracts, measurement and forecasting of inflation, analysis of exchange rate, and the compilation of national accounts.
5.7.2 Methodology of data production
Selection of Items
In the selection of Items, a top – down procedure is applied in three steps. First, the major 2 digit
HS chapters contributing to the total value of imports in terms of the sum of values of the year
2006 and 2010 were selected for direct inclusion in the indices. Twelve (12) chapters (2 digit HS
codes) are selected for imports and 8 chapters for exports out of 99 chapters representing 80
percent or more depending on the degree of concentration. Secondly, the process is repeated at 4
digit level of HS; 56 items are selected for imports and 10 items are selected for exports. Finally
the procedure is repeated at 8 digit level of the HS by selecting 170 items for imports and 18 items
for exports. The result of these procedures is the derivation of the structure and composition of
the indices.
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The XMPI has incorporated a number of methodological improvements including the use of geometric means for compiling elementary index aggregates, the use of an improved index compilation system, and improved procedures for collecting and processing prices. The Laspeyres index formula is used to compute higher level aggregates for the XMPI.
5.7.3 Reference to Standard Classifications The products are classified according to the United Nations Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System (HS). The HS is an international nomenclature for the classification of products.
5.8
DISTRIBUTIVE TRADE SURVEY IN TANZANIA
Distributive Trade constitute a subject area of economic statistics concerned with provision of
data on economic units whose main activity is wholesaling and retailing (that is to say, sale
without transformation) of any types of goods together with performing services incidental to
sales such as motor vehicle and motorcycle, repair, installation and delivery. The last known
comprehensive distributive trade survey was conducted by the then Central Bureau of Statistics in
1994
5.8.1 Objectives and uses of the DTS
The main objective of the Distributive Trade Survey (DTS), is to measure performance of key
indicators of the Distributive Trade, Accommodation and Food Services in the economy. The
information collected is used in the compilation of National Accounts aggregates such as Gross
Domestic Product (GDP).
Other specific survey objectives are as follows:
(i) Provide up to date statistical information for the improvement of the compilation of National Accounts (GDP); (ii) Ensuring effective compilation, analysis and dissemination of acceptable distributive trade statistics (including hotels, restaurants and tourist service providers); (iii) Set benchmarks for distributive trade statistics in Tanzania; and
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(iv) Collect information for planning and macro-economic policy formulation such as employment, marketing and financial services.
5.8.2 Methodology of data production The survey collects distributive trade statistics using questionnaires designed to obtain basic information from distributive trade outlets. The survey is done on the sample basis covering municipalities, cities, districts headquarters and towns, so only selected wholesale and retail outlets throughout the country are covered. The classifications of commodities are based on the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) Revision 4.
The assumption is that, in practice, complete coverage of retail, wholesale is not possible taking into account financial constraints. Also many of the establishments doing business in those kinds of activities operate in a manner that makes it very difficult to find them, even during the time of field work.
The sources of data are wholesale and retail trade outlets selected throughout the country. Questionnaires are administered by teams of trained enumerators with close supervision from NBS offices throughout the country. The enumerators do the data collection exercise by using the structured questionnaires.
Neither the mailing system nor the uses of telephones are considered practical for data collection in Tanzania. Therefore the collection medium chosen are personal delivery and recovery of documents by a small group of well-trained enumerators who visit all selected Regions.
5.9
AGRICULTURE SAMPLE CENSUS
The Agriculture Sample Census is designed to meet the data needs of a wide range of users down
to district level including policy makers at local, regional and national levels, rural development
agencies, funding institutions, researchers, NGOs, farmer organizations, etc. The census is
important as the majority of Tanzanians depends on agriculture as their main method of
livelihood. As a result, the dataset is both more numerous in its sample and detailed in its scope
compared to surveys.
5.9.1 Objectives and uses of the Agriculture Census The census is normally carried out in order to:
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(i) Identify structural changes if any, in the size of farm household holdings, crop and livestock production, farm input and implement use. It also seeks to determine if there are any improvements in rural infrastructure and the level of agriculture household living conditions;
(ii) Provide benchmark data on productivity, production and agricultural practices in relation to policies and interventions promoted by the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries and other stakeholders;
(iii) Establish baseline data for the measurement of the impact of high level objectives of the Agriculture Sector Development Programme (ASDP), Second Five Year Development Plan (2016/17 – 2020/21) and other rural development programmes and projects; and
(iv) Obtain a benchmark data that will be used to address specific issues such as: food security, rural poverty, gender, agro-processing, marketing, service delivery, etc.
5.9.2 Methodology of data production
Census Organisation The Census is conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in collaboration with the sector Ministries of Agriculture, and the Office of the Chief Government Statistician (OCGS) in Zanzibar. At the National level, the Census is headed by the Director General of the National Bureau of Statistics with assistance from the Director of Economic Statistics. The Planning Group oversee the operational aspects of the Census and this consists of staff from the Department of Agriculture Statistics from NBS and representatives of the Department of Policy and Planning of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries. At the regional level, implementation of census activities is overseen by the Regional Statistical Office of NBS and the Regional Agriculture Supervisor from the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries. At the District level, the Census activities are managed by two Supervisors from the President’s Office, Regional Administration and Local Government (PORALG). The supervisors manage the enumerators who also come from PORALG.