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STATISTICAL RELEASE
In reply please quote:
Our ref: NBS/S.40/21/488 Date: May 2024.
EXPORT AND IMPORT PRICE INDICES FOR THE QUARTER ENDING MARCH 2024
Background notes
Definition The Export and Import Price Indices (XMPI) are average measures of price changes of goods exported outside or imported into the country. The XMPI are used in various areas to do analysis such as Terms of Trade (ToT) which is the ratio of Export Price Index (XPI) to the Import Price Index (MPI).
The Export and Import Price Indices, which are compiled on a quarterly basis, cover both exports and imports of merchandise trade. These quarterly specifications based on XMPI have been compiled and disseminated since the first quarter of 2013 up to the last quarter of 2022 with reference base period being the quarter ending December 2017. The updated XMPI has the first quarter of 2023 as the reference base period. The updated weights and the product sample for the XMPI used customs data for the years 201 9 to 2021. Price collection for the updated XMPI was carried out during the period November -December 2023. This allowed for the compilation of the XMPI for the first quarter of 2023 using the new product and enterprise samples.
Weights and a reference period The XMPI weights are based on values of imported and exported commodities for the period 2019 to 2021. A top-down approach was taken in the determination of the index structure, composition and the allocation of the weights. The aim was to maximise the indirect representation of un-priced commodities in the index, through a chain of representation. The price reference period is the quarter ending March 2023.
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Product Classification The products are classified according to the United Nations Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System (HS). The HS is an international nomenclature for the classification of products.
Methodology Selection of items: In the selection of items, a top - down procedure was applied in three steps. First, the major 2 -digit HS chapters contributing to the total value of imports in terms of the sum of values for the year 2019 to 2021 were selected for direct inclusion in the indices. As a result, 16 chapters (2 -digit HS codes) were selected for imports and 12 chapters for exports out of 99 chapters representing 80 percent or more depending on the degree of concentration. Secondly, the process was repeated a t 4 -digit level of HS; 76 items were selected for imports and 19 items were selected for exports. Finally, the procedure was repeated at the 8 -digit level of the HS by selecting 165 items for imports and 25 items for exports. The result of these procedures was the derivation of the structure and composition of the indices.
The XMPI has incorporated a number of methodological improvements including the use of geometric means for compiling elementary index aggregates, the use of an improved index compilation system, and improved procedures for collecting and processing prices data. The Laspeyres index formula was used to compute higher level aggregates for the XMPI. Chart 1 depicts trends of XPI and MPI in the selected quarters.
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Chart 1: Quarterly Export and Import Price Indices (Q1 2023=100)
Note: Q1=January-March, Q2=April-June, Q3=July-September, Q4=October-December
Export Price Index
Structure of the XPI
The XPI covers 12 chapters out 99 chapters, namely; (i) Fish and crustaceans, molluscs and
other aquatic invertebrates, (ii) Edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers, (iii) Edible fruits
and nuts, peel of citrus fruit or melons, (iv) Coffee, tea, mate and spices, (v) Cereals, (vi) Oil
seed, oleaginous fruits; miscellaneous grains, seeds and fruit; indu strial or medicinal plants;
straw and fodder, (vii) Tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes, (viii) Ores, slag and
ash, (ix) Salt; sulphur; earths and stone; plastering materials; lime and cement, (x) Cotton,
(xi) Wadding, felt & nonwoven; yarns; twine, cordage, etc and (xii) Natural or cultured pearls,
precious stones and metals, coin, etc. The sample of twelve chapters constitutes 80 percent
of the total value of exports, aggregated from 2019 to 2021.
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Quarterly Export Price Index The overall Export Price Index during the quarter ending March 2024 increased by 1.9 percent to 110.5 from 108.5 recorded in the previous quarter. This development was largely attributed to the increase in prices of gold and edible vegetables. Likewise, when compared to the similar quarter in 2023, the index increased by 10.5 percent (Table 1).
Table 1: Quarterly Export Price Indices by Chapter (Q1 2023= 100)
Note: Q1=January-March, Q2=April-June, Q3=July-September, Q4=October-December
Sub-indices by Chapter This section gives detailed analysis on the movements of export price indices by chapter:
Chapter 03: Fish and crustacean, molluscs and other aquatic invertebrate The index for “Fish and crustacean, molluscs and other aquatic invertebrates” which accounts for 3.4 percent of the total weight, increased by 2.8 percent to 124.1 in the first quarter of 2024 from 120.8 recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023. The performa nce was largely attributed to the increase in the prices of Nile perch and frozen fillets in the world market, on account of increased demand in the European market during Easter festivities. Similarly, when compared to the similar quarter in 2023, the index increased by 24.1 percent.
Chapter 07: Edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers
This chapter contributed 4.8 percent of the total weight of exported commodities. During the
first quarter of 2024, the index increased by 6.0 percent to 119.2 from 112.5 that was recorded
in the previous quarter. The performance was largely attributed to the increase in world market
prices of pigeon peas, due to increase d demand (consumption requirements) from India.
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Likewise, when compared to the similar quarter of 2023, the index has increase d by 19.2 percent.
Chapter 08: Edible fruits and nuts, peel of citrus fruit or melons During the first quarter of 2024, the export price index for “Edible fruits and nuts”, which accounts for 6.6 percent of the total weight, decreased by 3.4 percent to 102.5 from 106.1 recorded in the previous quarter. The performance was largely associated with the decrease in prices of cashew nuts in the world market, largely influenced by the sharp rise in raw cashew nuts production in Africa and Cambodia. However, when compared to the similar quarter in the previous year, the index has increased by 2.5 percent.
Chapter 09: Coffee, tea, mate and spices This chapter contributed 4.8 percent of the total weight of exported commodities. During the first quarter of 2024, the index for “coffee, tea, mate and spices'' increased slightly by 0.6 percent to 112.0 from 111.3 recorded in the previous quarter. The performance was partly attributed to the increase in coffee prices in the world market owing to poor weather conditions hindering production. Likewise, when compared with the similar index in 2023, the index has increased by 12.0 percent.
Chapter 10: Cereals The export price index for “cereal” accounts for 4.7 percent of the total weight for exports. During the first quarter of 2024, the index increased by 1.8 percent to 107.7 from 105.8 recorded in the preceding quarter. The performance was largely attributed to the increase in the price of rice in the world market resulting from high cost of production and transport, as well as trade disruptions following the export restrictions imposed by India. Likewise, when compared to a similar quarter in the previous year, the index has increased by 7.7 percent.
Chapter 12: Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits; miscellaneous grains, seeds and fruit; industrial or medicinal plants; straw and fodder This chapter accounts for 4.7 percent of the total weight. During the first quarter of 2024, the index for “Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits; miscellaneous grains, seeds and fruit; industrial or medicinal plants; straw and fodder” increased by 1.8 percent to 108.4 from 106.5 recorded in the previous quarter . The performance was mainly explained by the increase in prices of sesame seeds in the world market, due to increased demand from the European Union and China. Similarly, when compared with a correspondent quarter in the previous year, the index has increased by 8.4 percent.
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Chapter 24: Tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes This chapter accounts for 3.5 percent of the total weight. During the first quarter of 2024, the index decreased by 3.9 percent to 113.7 from 118.3 recorded in the previous quarter. The performance was associated with the decrease in the prices of the US Virginia Flue Cured (VFC lamina tobacco leaf) in the global market. Nonetheless, when compared to the index in the similar quarter in 2023, the index has increased by 13.7 percent.
Chapter 25: Salt; sulphur; earth and stone; plastering material; lime and cement The export price index for “Salt; sulphur; earth and stone; plastering material; lime and cement”, accounting for 2.2 percent of the total weight, increased by 2.0 percent to 115.0 in the first quarter of 2024 from 112.8 recorded in the previous quarte r. The performance was largely driven by the increase in overall prices of cement and limestone. Likewise, when compared with the index in the similar quarter of 2023, the index has increased by 15.0 percent.
Chapter 26: Ores, slag and ash The export price index for “Ores, slag and ash”, which accounts for 3.6 percent of the total weight, increased by 1.8 percent to 109.1 in the first quarter of 2024 from 107.2 recorded in the preceding quarter. The performance was largely attributed to the increase in prices of silver ores and concentrates in the world market . Likewise, when compared to the similar quarter in the previous quarter, the index has increased by 9.1 percent.
Chapter 52: Cotton During the first quarter of 2024, the export price index for “Cotton”, which accounts for 2.0 percent of the total weight, increased by 2.0 percent to 90.5 compared to 88.7 recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023. The performance was mainly explained by the increase in the word market price of cotton amid subdued global consumption and rising stocks. However, when compared to the index in the similar quarter in previous year, the index has decreased by 9.5 percent.
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Chapter 56: Wadding, felt & nonwoven; yarns; twine, cordage, etc. The chapter contributes 0.6 percent of the total weight of exported commodities. During the first quarter of 2024, the index increased by 1.7 percent to 107.8 from 106.0 recorded in the previous quarter. The performance resulted from the increase in prices of sisal rope and yarn in the global market. Likewise, when compared to the similar quarter in 2023, the index has increased by 7.8 percent.
Chapter 71: Natural or cultured pearls, precious stones and metals, coin etc. The export price index for “Natural or cultured pearls, precious stones and metals, coin etc”, which accounts for 59.0 percent of the total weight of exported commodities, increased by 9.5 percent to 116.0 in the first quarter of 2024 from 105.9 recorded in the preceding quarter. The performance was largely associated with the increase in the world-market prices of gold mostly driven by the increased safe-haven demands amid continued geo-political conflicts and interest policy uncertainty of the Federal Res erve. Correspondingly when compared to the similar quarter in 2023, the index has increased by 16.0 percent.
Import Price Index
Structure of the MPI The MPI covers 16 chapters out of 99 chapters, namely; (i) Cereals, (ii) Animal fats and oil & their cleavage product, (iii) Sugars and sugar confectionery, (iv) Mineral fuels, oils and product of their distillation, (v) Pharmaceutical products, (vi) Fert ilisers, (vii) Miscellaneous chemical products, (viii) Plastics and articles thereof, (ix) Rubber and articles thereof, (x) Other made up textile articles; sets; worn clothing etc, (xi) Iron and steel, (xii) Articles of iron and steel, (xiii) Nuclear react ors, boilers, machinery and machinery appliance, parts, (xiv) Electrical machinery equipment parts thereof; sound recorder etc, (xv) Vehicles other than railway or transport way roll -stock, parts and accessories and (xvi) Optical, photographic, cinematographic, measuring, checking, precision, etc. The sampled sixteen chapters constitute 80 percent of total value of imports aggregated from 2019 to 2022.
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Quarterly Import Price Index
The overall Import Price Index for the quarter ending March 2024 decreased by 0.7 percent to 101.0 from 101.8 recorded in the previous quarter. The decrease was contributed by a fall in global market prices of Mineral fuels, fertilisers and Iron and steel. However, when compared to the same quarter last year the index increased marginally by 1.0 percent. (Table 2).
Table 2: Quarterly Import Price Indices by Chapter (Q1 2023= 100)
Note: Q1=January-March, Q2=April-June, Q3=July-September, Q4=October-December
Sub-indices by Chapter This section analyses movements of import price indices for each chapter.
Chapter 10: Cereals This chapter accounts for 3.2 percent of the total weight. During the first quarter of 2024, the import price index for “Cereals” decreased by 4.8 percent to 91.0 from 95.6 recorded in the fourth quarter in 2023 . This development was attributed to an increase in supply and production levels in major wheat producing countries supported by positive weather conditions. Similarly, when compared to the corresponding quarter last year, the index decreased by 9.0 percent.