Consumer_price_Nov_2017_def.pdf

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14 December 2017

Consumer prices: final data November 2017

In November 2017, the Italian consumer price index for the whole nation (NIC) decreased by 0.2% on monthly basis and increased by 0.9% compared with November 2016 (it was +1.0% in October 2017). The flash estimate was confirmed. In November, the further slight slowdown of the growth on annual basis of All items index was mainly due to the deceleration of prices of Unprocessed foo d (+3.2% down from +3.8% in October) and Services related to recreation, including rep air and personal care (+0.9% down from +1.4%), partially offset by the acceleration of prices of Non-regulated energy products (+5.0%, up from +4.3% in the previous month).
As a consequence, Excluding energy and unprocessed food, core inflation was +0.4% (0.1 percentage points lower than in October) and inflation excluding energy was +0.6% (+0.7% in the previous month). The decrease on monthly basis of All items index was mainly due to the prices of Services related to recreation, including repair and pers onal care (-1.4%) and Services related to transport (-1.0%). Both of them were affected by seasonal factors. These dynamics were slightly offset by the increase on monthly basis in prices of Non-regulated energy products (+1.3%) because of fuels and diesel. The annual rate of change of prices of Goods was + 1.3% (up from +1.2% in October) and that one of prices of Services was + 0.5% (down from +0.7%). As a consequence, the inflationary gap between Services and Goods was still negative and equal to -0.8 percentage points (it was -0.5 in October 2017).
Prices of Grocery and unprocessed food increased by 0.3% on monthly basis and by 1.6% on annual basis (down from +1.7% in the previous month). In November 2017, the rate of change of Italian harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) decreased by 0.2% compared with the previous month and increased by +1.1% with respect to November 2016 (as in the previous month). The flash estimate was confirmed. Core inflation, measured by Italian HICP, was +0. 5% (as in October) while both inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco (+0.4%) and inflation excluding Energy (+0.7%) decelerated by 0.1 percentage points with respect to October. In November 2017, the rate of change Italian harmonized index of consumer prices at constant tax rates (HICP-CT) decreased by 0.2% compared with the previous month and increased by 1. 0% with respect to November 2016 (as HICP). Therefore, the difference between HICP and HICP -CT growth rates 1 – which incorporates the effects of changes i n indirect taxes occurred in the last twelve months – was positive and equal to 0.1 percentage points.

ITALIAN CONSUMER PRICE INDICES. November 2017, (base 2015=100)
INDICES November 2017 Nov-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Nov-16 Italian consumer price index for the whole nation (NIC) 100.8 -0.2 0.9 Italian harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) 101.8 -0.2 1.1

1 The difference between the rates of change of HICP and HICP -CT represents the upper limit of the impact of changes in indirect taxes occurred in the last twelve months on HICP, assuming their full and instantaneous pass-through on prices paid by consumers.

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TABLE 1. ITALIAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR THE WHOLE NATION (NIC), BY ECOICOP DIVISION. November 2017, weights, indices and percentage changes (base 2015=100)
DIVISIONS Weights Indices Nov-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Nov-16 Oct-17 Oct-16 Nov-16 Oct-16 Food and non-alcoholic beverages 164,968 102.5 0.3 1.9 2.1 0.5 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 32,019 102.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 Clothing and footwear 73,620 101.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 107,280 100.5 0.1 2.0 2.0 0.1 Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance 72,371 100.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Health 86,870 100.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 Transport 139,331 101.5 -0.1 2.7 2.4 -0.4 Communication 26,125 97.0 -0.1 -1.0 -1.6 -0.7 Recreation and culture 78,409 100.3 -0.2 0.5 0.4 -0.3 Education 12,119 83.8 0.0 -16.2 -16.1 0.1 Restaurants and hotels 114,864 101.3 -1.8 1.1 1.7 -1.3 Miscellaneous goods and services 92,024 101.3 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 ALL ITEMS 1,000,000 100.8 -0.2 0.9 1.0 -0.1

TABLE 2. ITALIAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR THE WHOLE NATION (NIC), BY TYPES OF PRODUCT. November 2017, weights, indices and percentage changes (base 2015=100)
SPECIAL AGGREGATES Weights Indices Nov-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Nov-16 Oct-17 Oct-16 Nov-16 Oct-16 Food including alcohol: 175,273 102.4 0.4 1.8 1.9 0.5 Processed food including alcohol 105,071
100.9 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 Unprocessed food 70,202
104.5 0.7 3.2 3.8 1.3 Energy: 84,456 99.7 0.7 4.4 4.0 0.3 Regulated energy products 41,439 98.4 0.0 3.8 3.9 0.1 Non-regulated energy products
43,017 101.3 1.3 5.0 4.3 0.6 Tobacco 21,714 103.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 Non energy industrial goods: 254,637 100.5 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 Durable goods 84,846
100.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 Non-durable goods 66,173
100.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 Semi-durable goods 103,618
100.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 Goods 536,080 101.0 0.2 1.3 1.2 0.1 Services related to housing 77,003 101.5 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 Services related to communication 19,445 98.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 Services related to recreation, including repair and personal care 176,824 101.0 -1.4 0.9 1.4 -0.9 Services related to transport 76,089 101.8 -1.0 2.2 2.3 -0.9 Services - miscellaneous
114,559 99.5 0.0 -1.2 -1.1 0.1 Services 463,920 100.7 -0.7 0.5 0.7 -0.5 ALL ITEMS 1,000,000 100.8 -0.2 0.9 1.0 -0.1 All items excluding energy and unprocessed food (Core inflation) 845,342 100.7 -0.4 0.4 0.5 -0.3 All items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco 718,557 100.6 -0.4 0.3 0.4 -0.3 All items excluding energy 915,544 101.0 -0.2 0.6 0.7 -0.1 Grocery and unprocessed food 198,287 102.0 0.3 1.6 1.7 0.4

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TABLE 3. ITALIAN HARMONIZED CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (HICP), BY ECOICOP DIVISION. November 2017, weights, indices and percentage changes (base 2015=100)
DIVISIONS Weights Indices Nov-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Nov-16 Oct-17 Oct-16 Nov-16 Oct-16 Food and non-alcoholic beverages 175,240 102.7 0.4 2.0 2.3 0.7 Alcoholic beverages, tobacco 34,015 102.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 Clothing and footwear 85,400 110.2 -0.2 0.3 0.3 -0.2 Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 114,100 100.5 0.1 2.0 2.0 0.1 Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance 77,035 100.6 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 Health 43,047 101.9 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0 Transport 147,915 101.5 -0.1 2.7 2.4 -0.4 Communication 27,786 97.0 -0.2 -1.1 -1.6 -0.7 Recreation and culture 62,346 100.5 -0.2 0.8 0.5 -0.5 Education 12,885 83.8 0.0 -16.1 -16.0 0.1 Restaurants and hotels 122,115 101.4 -1.8 1.1 1.7 -1.3 Miscellaneous goods and services 98,116 101.7 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.1 ALL ITEMS 1,000,000 101.8 -0.2 1.1 1.1 -0.2 All items at constant tax rates 1,000,000 101.7 -0.2 1.0 1.1 -0.1

TABLE 4. ITALIAN HARMONIZED CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (HICP), BY SPECIAL AGGREGATES. November 2017, weights, indices and percentage changes (base 2015=100) SPECIAL AGGREGATES Weights Indices Nov-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Nov-16 Oct-17 Oct-16 Nov-16 Oct-16 Food, alcohol and tobacco: 209,255 102.7 0.4 1.7 1.9 0.6 Processed food (including alcohol and tobacco) 117,212 101.5 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 Unprocessed food 92,043 104.2 0.6 2.8 3.3 1.1 Energy: 89,782 99.8 0.7 4.4 4.0 0.3 Electricity, gas, solid fuels and heat energy 48,159 98.4 0.0 3.5 3.6 0.1 Liquid fuels and fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipment 41,623 101.6 1.4 5.4 4.6 0.6 Non-energy industrial goods: 263,440 104.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.1 Durable goods 80,863 101.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 Non-durable goods 64,613 101.8 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.0 Semi-durable goods 117,964 107.6 -0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.3 Goods 562,477 102.8 0.3 1.6 1.5 0.2 Services related to housing 81,849 101.5 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 Services related to communication 27,786 97.0 -0.2 -1.1 -1.6 -0.7 Services related to recreation, including repairs and personal care 166,219 101.1 -1.6 1.0 1.6 -1.0 Services related to transport 80,722 101.8 -1.0 2.2 2.3 -0.9 Services - miscellaneous
80,947 98.5 0.0 -2.2 -2.1 0.1 Services 437,523 100.6 -0.7 0.5 0.6 -0.6 ALL ITEMS 1,000,000
101.8 -0.2 1.1 1.1 -0.2 All items excluding energy and unprocessed food (Core inflation) 818,175 101.8 -0.3 0.5 0.5 -0.3 All items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco 700,963 101.8 -0.5 0.4 0.5 -0.4 All items excluding energy 910,218 102.0 -0.3 0.7 0.8 -0.2

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TABLE 5. REVISIONS OF CONSUMER PRICE INDICES. November 2017, indices and percentage changes (base 2015=100)

Flash estimates Final data

INDICES RATES OF CHANGE% INDICES RATES OF CHANGE %

November 2017 Nov-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Nov-16 November 2017 Nov-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Nov-16

Italian consumer price index for the whole
nation (NIC)
100.8 -0.2 0.9 100.8 -0.2 0.9 Italian harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP)
101.8 -0.2 1.1 101.8 -0.2 1.1

For more details please refer to the Italian version

Date of previous release: 30 November 2017 Date of next release: 5 January 2018

Contact person:

Maria Assunta Scelsi ([email protected]) Istat – Italian National Institute of Statistics
Via Cesare Balbo 16 – 00184 Rome, Italy phone +39 06 4673.2795

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Consumer Price Indices Methodological note

The Consumer Price Index for the whole nation (NIC) is based on the consumption of the entire present population.
The Harmonised index of Consumer Prices (HICP) , calculated according to the EU regulations in force, is used for the comparis on of inflation between Member States and as a key indicator for the monetary policy of the European Central Bank.
Consumer price indices are calculated using a chained Laspeyres formula, in which the basket of products and the weighting system are update d annually. Monthly indices for the current year are calculated with reference to December of the previous year (calculation base) and subsequently chained over the period chosen as a reference base in order to be able to measure price trends over a period of time longer than a year2.

Reference base year for NIC and HICP
The NIC indices are expressed with 2015=100 as a reference base year 3.
The HICP are calculated and published with 2015=100 as a reference base, as established by the EU Regulation 2015/2010 of the European Commission of 11 November 2015.

Classification for consumer expenditure, basket of goods Classification of consumption so far used for HICP, NIC and FOI is the international classification ECOICOP (European Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose), whose hierarchical structure has 4 levels of disaggregation: Divisions, Groups, Classes of product and Subclasses of product.
Since the final data of January 2016, Istat has been adopted the classification ECOICOP, annexed to the new European framework regulation on harmonised indices of consumer prices and the house price index, (2016/792), that introduced an additional level of detail, the subclasses of product. Anyway, in 2011 Istat introduced two disaggregation levels: product sub-classes and consumption segments.
The 2017 basket for the Italian consumer price index for the whole nation (NIC) and for blue and white - collar households (FOI) is made up of 1,481 elementary products, which are grouped into 920 products and into 405 product aggregates. (1,476 in 2016 grouped into 901 products and 400 product aggregates).

TABLE 1. CLASSIFICATION NIC AND FOI INDICES. Year 2017 Year 2017 12 expenditure divisions 43 product groups 102 product classes 229 product sub-classes

                                                302 consumption segments 
                                                       405 product aggregates 
                                                              920 products 
                                                                     1,481 elementary products 
                                             

2 ISTAT calculates another index named Consumer Price Index for b lue - and white -collar worker households (FOI) based on consumption of households whose reference person is an employee. 3 The FOI indices are expressed with 2015=100 as a reference base year, too.

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The 2017 basket for the Italian harmonized index of cons umer prices (HICP) is made up of 1,498 elementary products, which are grouped into 923 products and then into 409 product aggregates (1,484 in 2016 grouped into 906 products and 404 product aggregates) 4. Segments of consumption are the most disaggregated l evel for which NIC indices referring to the entire national territory are disseminated. For HICP indices, the level of detail of the dissemination is that of the product classes, but during 2017, it is expected that of the product subclasses. FOI national indices are disseminated at level of expenditure divisions. At local level (geographical area, region, province), NIC indices are published up to the product groups and FOI indices, just at provincial level, up to the divisions.
Furthermore, HICP indices by special aggregates (HICP-SA) are released. HICP-SA indices are calculated using the same classification scheme and the same method adopted by Eurostat (therefore different from the method used for the calculation of NIC indices by type s of product), in order to guarantee comparability among the Italian HICPs and the HICP of the other EU countries and the HICPs for the EU and the euro area produced by Eurostat5. All indices and data are available and published on Istat data warehouse, I.Stat, inside the theme “Prices” and subtheme “Consumer prices”. In addition to indices at national level, NIC indices at provincial, regional and macro area level and FOI indices at provincial level are published too.

Price collection and calculation method for seasonal product price indices The method for collecting and calculating prices of seasonal products is in accordance with Regulation (EC) no 330/2009 of 22 nd April 2009, which sets out minimum standards for dealing with season al products in the HICP 6. This method, also used for the NIC 7, is applied to the product groups and classes Fruit, Vegetables, Clothing and Footwear.
The European Regulation defines as seasonal product that one consumers may not purchase in certain periods of the year (at least one month), or they may purchase in modest or insignificant volumes. It also establishes that in a given month seasonal products are considered in season or out of season.
On the basis of this standard, Istat defined a monthly cale ndar for the whole 2017, which establishes, in a given month, when each specific product belonging to the above mentioned product groups or classes must be considered in season or out of season . The adoption of a seasonality calendar entails that the local consumer price survey is carried out only in months when the product in question is defined as in season, while prices of out of season products will be estimated on the basis of a method that is consistent with standards contained in the aforementioned European Regulation.

4 The difference between the two baskets is due to two ele ments: on one hand in the HICP basket (but not in the NIC/FOI one), contribution to the NHS for pharmaceutical products, specialist practices and services of medical analysis (six items) are in cluded; on the other hand in the NIC/FOI basket (but not in the HICP one), Games of chance are included. 5 HICP-SA indices have been released starting from data referred to February 2013.
The description of product classes which are included in the special aggregates is available on Eurostat web site at the following link: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ramon/nomenclatures/index.cfm?TargetUrl=LST_NOM_DTL&StrNom=HICP_2000&StrLanguageCode=E N&IntPcKey=&StrLayoutCode=.
The HICP -SA calculation met hod is described in the HICP Compendium which is downloadable at the following link: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/3859598/5926625/KS-RA-13-017-EN.PDF/59eb2c1c-da1f-472c-b191- 3d0c76521f9b?version=1.0.
Back series starting from January 2001 are published on I.Stat, the warehouse of Istat statistics, inside the theme “Prices”. 6 It has been adopted starting from data referred to January 2011. 7 It is used for FOI indices, too.

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Survey geographical basis, rate of coverage and frequency of data collection Data contributing to the compilation of monthly consumer price indices are traditionally collected in two distinct surveys: the local survey, carried out by M unicipal Offices of Statistics, under Istat supervision and coordination, and the central survey, carried out directly by Istat. In addition to these two ways, an administrative source is used too, that is the database of fuel prices of Ministry of Economi c Development. Local survey In 2017 the geographical basis of the survey is made up of 80 municipalities (18 regional capitals and 61 provincial capitals) – which participate in the indices calculation for all the product aggregates of the basket – and of other 16 municipalities participating in the survey for a subset of products, which includes local tariffs (water supply, solid waste, sewerage collection, gas for domestic use, urban transport, taxi, car transfer ownership, canteens in schools, public day nursery, etc.) and some local services (building worker, football matches, cinema, theatre shows, secondary school education, canteens in universities, etc.).
Overall, the coverage of the index, measured in terms of resident population in the provinces wi th capitals participating in the survey for all items in the basket, is 83.7%.
Concerning the basket subset including local tariffs and some local services – whose weight on the NIC basket is equal to 6.0% – with the participation of the other 16 municipa lities, the coverage of the survey, measured in terms of provincial resident population, is 92.4%. Central survey In 2017 price quotes collected each month directly by Istat are 137,500, of which:
 137,000 via web, also using web scraping techniques, or collecting data from different providers. The main data providers for the central price data collection are the following:  Italian Customs Agency, for Tobacco products and games of chance;  Italian Association of Concessionaries Highways and Tunnels (Aiscat), for motorway tolls;  Farmadati, for pharmaceutical products;  Italian Association of Publishers (AIE), for prices of school books;  Specialized magazine “Quattroruote” for prices quotes of cars and second hand cars;
 Sanguinetti Editore, for prices of cars, motorcycles and motorbikes, caravans and motorhomes;  about 500 price quotes directly collected using the data by Insurance Companies.
An important news in central survey is that of Housing insurance services whose prices, monthly collected by insurance company, refer to protection against most risks connected to property, such as fire, theft and other damages. The percentage of products observed directly by Istat calculated according to the weight assigned to each product within the NIC is 23.6% in 2017 (as in the previous year).
Administrative sources
In 2017 automotive fuels price indices (the weight on the basket is 3.7%) are calculated using the data base supplied by the Ministry of Economic Development, that collects prices for these products. 76,000 price quotes are monthly used to estimate inflation and they come from about 13,596 fuel stations on the territory, that is 69.3% of the ones active and present in Ministry database.
The 13,596 fuel stations cover the entire national territory and they are located in the different geographical areas as it follows: 3,600 in the North -West; 3,200 in the North -East; 3,000 in the Centre; almost 2,400 in the South and about 1,400 in the Islands. Frequency of data collection With regard to the local survey, price collection is carried out in the first fifteen working days:  bi-monthly for products which show a strong temporal variability of their prices (fresh fruit and vegetables, fresh fish; gas in cylinder and heating oil);  collecting three prices for month for the hotel bedroom referring to the first three Saturday of the month;

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 once a month, for the remaining products. For some goods or services, such as for example, water supply, town gas and natural gas, urban transport by bus and combined urban transport, taxi or tickets (contributions to NHS) for specialist practice, services of medical analysis laboratories and X-ray centres and other paramedical services, it is detected the price applied the 15th day of the month to which the index is referred. Concerning the centralized survey, price collection is widely carried out once a month in the first fifteen working days. Hereafter the exceptions to the general rule:
 for some goods and services such as for example tobacco, games of chance, medicines, telecommunications services, regional railway transport, wagon lits, out of town bus services, out of town combined passenger transport, postal services, highway tolls car transfer ownership, car overhaul, it is detected the price applied the 15th day of the month to which the index is referred;  three times per month, according an annual calendar fixed at the beginning of the year, for national railway transport;  bi-monthly for passenger transport by air, passenger transport by sea and inland waterway and magazines;  from the 9th to the 15th day of each month for daily newspapers;  on each day of the month for touristic, recreational and cultural services (fun parks entrance ticket, bathing establishment, ski lifts, etc.). Concerning the data base supplied by the Ministry of Economic Development, automotive fuel prices applied on the first and the tenth working day of each month are used to compile consumer price indices.

Weighting structure In Table 1 the weighting structure for the year 2017 of NIC and HICP is reported.

TABLE 1. WEIGHTS USED FOR CALCULATING CONSUMER PRICE INDICES. BY EXPENDITURE DIVISION. Year 2017, percentage values EXPENDITURE DIVISIONS WEIGHTS NIC HICP Food and non-alcoholic beverages 16.4968 17.5240 Alcoholic beverages. tobacco 3.2019 3.4015 Clothing and footwear 7.3620 8.5400 Housing. water. electricity. gas and other fuels 10.7280 11.4100 Furnishings. household equipment and routine household maintenance 7.2371 7.7035 Health 8.6870 4.3047 Transport 13.9331 14.7915 Communication 2.6125 2.7786 Recreation and culture 7.8409 6.2346 Education 1.2119 1.2885 Restaurants and hotels 11.4864 12.2115 Miscellaneous goods and services 9.2024 9.8116 All items 100.0000 100.0000

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