Annual-Analytical-Report-on-Trade-Statistics-of-Pakistan-FY2023-24-2.pdf

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Annual Analytical Report on External Trade Statistics of Pakistan 2 0 2 4 F Y 97 SECTION-5 2024 COMPILATION METHODOLOGY FOR TRADE INDICES COMPUTATIONAL STEPS TAKEN FOR COMPILATION OF TRADE INDICES Prior to computation of trade indices, the dataset goes through few stages in order to ensure efficiency and reliability of resulted index. Step 1: Export and Import primary data is provided by FBR/PRAL on monthly basis. Step 2: Primary data is checked thoroughly by the Export and import editing/coding teams in order to avoid any errors in listing and necessary amendments are made with the approval of senior officials. Step 3: Exclusion of re-export and re-import form trade data. Step 4: Addition of quantity of Items whose quantity is not mentioned to get unit values. Step 5: Exclusion of items 34 value items of Exports and 46 value items of imports. Step6: Items having %age share greater than 0.01% within group were selected. Step 7: Selection of 1674 Items out of 3291 Items of Export and 3311 Items out of 6107 HS codes/ Items of Import. Step 8: Correction of erroneous unit value of items. It involves editing and coding (treatment of raw data) Step 9: Finalization of basket of goods of export and import for base year 2017-18.
Step 10: Master files of Export and Import are made for computation of External Trade Indices (ETI). Step11: ETI calculated according to master files on quarterly basis from July-2018 onward.
FORMULAS USED FOR COMPUTATION At present, PBS is computing the following indicators on quarterly basis; 1.  Unit value index of exports 2.  Unit value index of imports 3.  Quantum index of exports 4.  Quantum index of imports 5.  Terms of trade The Laspeyer’s formula, used for the computation of these indices is as under: 1.  Unit value Index: Here total expenditures for all items at observation period using base year quantities are divided by the total expenditure for all items at the base period using base year quantities. 2.  Quantum Index: for this purpose, the current quantum of export or import is multiplied by base year prices and divided by base year expenditure using base year price & Quantities. It depicts the variation in quantity of export or import in terms of quantity as compared to base year. Where • Po = Unit Value of each item in the base year • P n = Unit Value of each item in the current year • Q o = Quantity of each item in the base year • Q n = Quantity of each item in the current year 3.  Terms of trade: The export and import unit value indices can be used to measure the Pakistan’s terms of trade. The terms of trade index is calculated based on the ratio of unit value index of exports to the unit value index of imports. It represents the cost of a given volume of imports in terms of exports.

98 Annual Analytical Report on External Trade Statistics of Pakistan 2 0 2 4 F Y COMPARISON OF INDICES (OLD BASE V/S NEW BASE) YEARLY COMPARISON OF INDICES Year Base year = 2017-18 Base year = 1990-91 Quantum Index Change (%) Unit Value Index Change (%) Quantum Index Change (%) Unit Value Index Change (%) Export 2017-18 100 100 220.55 735.5 2018-19 104.95 4.95 117.26 17.26 248.38 12.62 794.71 8.05 Import 2017-18 100 100 415.76 1261.25 2018-19 102.57 2.57 115.05 15.05 381.96 -8.13 1342.3 6.43 Terms of trade 2017-18 100 57.67 2018-19 101.91 59.21 The above table provides yearly comparison of Export and Import Quantum and Unit Value Indices. For export, indices based on new base year shows an increase of 4.95% in quantum index as compared to an increase of 12.62% in current base year, while the unit value index shows an increase of 17.26% for the new base year and an increase of 8.05% for the previous Base year. As far as comparison of Quantum and Unit value indices for Import is concerned; Import Quantum index shows an increase of 2.57% for the base year 2017-18 while a decline of 8.13% can be seen for the base year 1990-91, while the unit value index shows an increase of 15.05% for the new base year and an increase of 6.43% for the previous Base year. Terms of trade for year 2018-19 on the basis of 2017-18 base period stood at 101.91, whereas term of trade for the same period on the basis of 1990-91 base period stood at 59.21%.

Annual Analytical Report on External Trade Statistics of Pakistan 2 0 2 4 F Y 99 SECTION-5 2024 QUARTERLY COMPARISON OF INDICES Quantum Indices

Unit Value Indices
The above drawn figures are based on the quarterly computed indices (See Annexure-III) COMPARISON OF TRADE INDICES (SITC V/S. HS CODING SCHEME) As discussed earlier the compilation of indices based on 2017-18 base year will be calculated and presented according to HS -21 section. Previously indices were calculated according to SITC grouping scheme, based on 9 groups.

100 Annual Analytical Report on External Trade Statistics of Pakistan 2 0 2 4 F Y

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